The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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HB Køge v PSV Eindhoven

Kickoff: 2026-09-02 17:00 UTC

Final: HB Køge 1–1 PSV Eindhoven

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HB Køge (Local)

Prediction 45.50%2.20fair odd
EV -7.18%
Edge -3.52%
Kelly -6.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.86%45.50%45.46%46.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.871.941.952.0453.48%51.44%51.28%49.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

PSV Eindhoven (Visit)

Prediction 27.63%3.62fair odd
EV -7.45%
Edge -2.22%
Kelly -3.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.34%27.63%27.68%28.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.273.303.3532.26%30.54%30.30%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.87%3.72fair odd
EV -7.02%
Edge -2.03%
Kelly -2.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.61%26.87%26.86%27.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.323.283.4631.25%30.14%30.49%28.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HB Køge (Local): 45.50%; PSV Eindhoven (Visit): 27.63%; Draw: 26.87%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.72. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.46, with an expected value of -7.02%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.48%EV -7.18%E -3.52%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.70%EV -7.45%E -2.22%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.82%EV -7.02%E -2.03%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-02 16:50
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.39%EV -11.27%E -5.78%K -11.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.00%EV -7.45%E -2.22%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.61%EV -8.64%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-02 16:44
NetBet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.86%EV -11.27%E -5.78%K -11.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.22%EV -14.36%E -4.63%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.92%EV -12.67%E -3.90%K -5.63%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-02 15:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.16%EV -13.09%E -6.85%K -14.39%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 26.96%EV -9.66%E -2.95%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 26.88%EV -11.86%E -3.62%K -5.20%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-02 16:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 46.49%EV -14.91%E -7.97%K -17.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.34%EV -8.83%E -2.68%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.17%EV -14.01%E -4.38%K -6.37%G +0.000%15.0%2026-09-02 16:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.