The School of Odds
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Eintracht Frankfurt v Paris Saint Germain

Kickoff: 2026-08-26 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Eintracht Frankfurt (Local)

Prediction 36.31%2.75fair odd
EV -6.68%
Edge -2.60%
Kelly -4.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.36%36.44%36.39%37.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.462.452.5742.02%40.70%40.82%38.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Paris Saint Germain (Visit)

Prediction 37.50%2.67fair odd
EV -4.37%
Edge -1.71%
Kelly -2.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.11%37.43%37.23%40.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.392.412.5547.62%41.92%41.49%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.19%3.82fair odd
EV -4.42%
Edge -1.21%
Kelly -1.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.06%26.13%26.38%26.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.433.403.6530.30%29.18%29.41%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Eintracht Frankfurt (Local): 36.31%; Paris Saint Germain (Visit): 37.50%; Draw: 26.19%. For Paris Saint Germain (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.67. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.55, with an expected value of -4.37%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 36.09%EV -6.68%E -2.60%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 38.49%EV -9.62%E -3.99%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.41%EV -4.42%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-26 16:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -7.40%E -2.90%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -6.25%E -2.50%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.35%E -2.39%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-26 16:43
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -9.22%E -3.69%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.27%EV -10.75%E -4.52%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-26 16:44
Betclic (FR)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 34.36%EV -9.94%E -4.01%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.58%EV -21.25%E -10.12%K -19.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.06%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%17.4%2026-08-26 16:48
BetOnline.ag🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 36.30%EV -10.67%E -4.34%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 37.05%EV -9.62%E -3.99%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.65%EV -12.28%E -3.66%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-26 16:43
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -11.03%E -4.50%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.11%EV -4.37%E -1.71%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -8.35%E -2.39%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-26 16:35
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.04%EV -11.03%E -4.50%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.04%EV -8.12%E -3.32%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -8.35%E -2.39%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-26 16:55
888sport🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.08%EV -11.03%E -4.50%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.14%EV -10.75%E -4.52%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.78%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-26 16:44
William Hill🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.08%EV -11.03%E -4.50%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.14%EV -10.75%E -4.52%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.78%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-26 16:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -12.85%E -5.35%K -9.18%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -8.12%E -3.32%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-26 16:39
Coral🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -12.85%E -5.35%K -9.18%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -8.12%E -3.32%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-26 16:39
NetBet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.23%EV -12.85%E -5.35%K -9.18%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.81%EV -13.75%E -5.98%K -10.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.96%EV -12.28%E -3.66%K -5.22%G +0.000%15.0%2026-08-26 16:49
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 35.98%EV -13.58%E -5.70%K -9.84%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.06%EV -15.62%E -6.94%K -12.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.95%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%16.8%2026-08-26 16:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.