The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Czarni Sosnowiec v Leuven

Kickoff: 2026-08-26 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Czarni Sosnowiec (Local)

Prediction 23.00%4.35fair odd
EV +5.81%
Edge +1.26%
Kelly +1.61%
Growth +0.094%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.90%22.75%23.01%25.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.043.984.6027.40%24.78%25.16%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Leuven (Visit)

Prediction 53.68%1.86fair odd
EV -6.06%
Edge -3.46%
Kelly -8.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.38%53.97%53.73%57.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.681.671.7562.50%59.70%59.88%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.32%4.29fair odd
EV -0.430%
Edge -0.101%
Kelly -0.132%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.75%23.29%23.27%25.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.903.884.2728.17%25.62%25.81%23.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Czarni Sosnowiec (Local): 23.00%; Leuven (Visit): 53.68%; Draw: 23.32%. For Czarni Sosnowiec (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.35. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.81%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Bet Victor🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV +5.81%E +1.26%K +1.61%G +0.094%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -14.11%E -8.82%K -23.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -6.73%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-26 16:54
Bovada🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.24%EV -1.09%E -0.255%K -0.332%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.03%EV -10.89%E -6.56%K -16.50%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.73%EV -10.22%E -2.66%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-26 16:55
betano_uk🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV -3.40%E -0.808%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.77%EV -10.35%E -6.20%K -15.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -9.06%E -2.32%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-26 16:37
Unibet (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -8.00%E -2.00%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.13%E -4.12%K -9.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -6.73%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-26 14:29
BetOnline.ag🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 22.54%EV -9.15%E -2.32%K -3.10%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.38%EV -8.74%E -5.14%K -12.49%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.08%EV -17.22%E -4.85%K -6.75%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-26 13:49
888sport🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.93%EV -10.30%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.54%EV -10.35%E -6.20%K -15.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.53%EV -11.39%E -3.00%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-26 16:34
Pinnacle🎯3.69I 27.10%NM 25.17%EV -15.13%E -4.10%K -5.62%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.08%EV -6.06%E -3.46%K -8.08%G +0.000%4.27I 23.42%NM 21.75%EV -0.430%E -0.101%K -0.132%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-26 16:40
NetBet (FR)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 23.80%EV -16.05%E -4.40%K -6.05%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 53.63%EV -13.04%E -8.05%K -21.03%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.57%EV -10.22%E -2.66%K -3.59%G +0.000%15.1%2026-08-26 16:38
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.