The School of Odds
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Chelsea v Real Sociedad

Kickoff: 2026-08-26 17:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chelsea (Local)

Prediction 75.50%1.32fair odd
EV -7.89%
Edge -6.47%
Kelly -35.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.86%75.21%75.55%76.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.161.201.221.2286.21%83.02%81.97%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Real Sociedad (Visit)

Prediction 9.34%10.70fair odd
EV +2.78%
Edge +0.253%
Kelly +0.278%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.33%9.40%9.31%10.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.259.649.7211.0012.12%10.38%10.29%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 15.16%6.60fair odd
EV -1.47%
Edge -0.226%
Kelly -0.267%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.18%15.39%15.14%17.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.816.006.5020.00%17.21%16.67%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chelsea (Local): 75.50%; Real Sociedad (Visit): 9.34%; Draw: 15.16%. For Real Sociedad (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.70. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.78%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.39%EV -9.40%E -7.84%K -47.01%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV +2.78%E +0.253%K +0.278%G +0.008%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -9.05%E -1.51%K -1.81%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-26 16:40
Bet Victor🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.09%EV -9.40%E -7.84%K -47.01%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -1.89%E -0.180%K -0.199%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -9.05%E -1.51%K -1.81%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-26 16:44
betano_uk🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.09%EV -9.40%E -7.84%K -47.01%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -1.89%E -0.180%K -0.199%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -9.05%E -1.51%K -1.81%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-26 16:42
Betclic (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 76.37%EV -12.42%E -10.71%K -77.64%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.86%EV -6.56%E -0.656%K -0.729%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.77%EV -9.05%E -1.51%K -1.81%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-26 17:24
Bovada🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.78%EV -7.89%E -6.47%K -35.88%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.36%EV -8.90%E -0.913%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.87%EV -12.84%E -2.23%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-26 17:40
Pinnacle🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.95%EV -7.89%E -6.47%K -35.88%G +0.000%9.72I 10.29%NM 9.53%EV -9.18%E -0.944%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.38I 15.67%NM 14.52%EV -3.29%E -0.515%K -0.611%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-26 16:54
888sport🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.86%EV -7.89%E -6.47%K -35.88%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -11.23%E -1.18%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -24.21%E -4.84%K -6.05%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-26 16:44
William Hill🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.86%EV -7.89%E -6.47%K -35.88%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -11.23%E -1.18%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -24.21%E -4.84%K -6.05%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-26 16:44
Betway🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.57%EV -7.89%E -6.47%K -35.88%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -15.91%E -1.77%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -1.47%E -0.226%K -0.267%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-26 16:34
BetOnline.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.27%EV -7.89%E -6.47%K -35.88%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 10.77%EV -22.45%E -2.70%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.96%EV -15.11%E -2.70%K -3.28%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-26 17:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 74.23%EV -11.67%E -9.97%K -68.63%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 10.53%EV -22.91%E -2.78%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.24%EV -13.60%E -2.39%K -2.89%G +0.000%15.1%2026-08-26 17:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.