The School of Odds
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Chelsea v Austria Wien

Kickoff: 2026-09-23 19:00 UTC

Final: Chelsea 1–0 Austria Wien

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chelsea (Local)

Prediction 92.07%1.09fair odd
EV -6.09%
Edge -5.97%
Kelly -304.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.26%92.09%91.99%93.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.011.011.02100.00%98.87%99.01%98.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Austria Wien (Visit)

Prediction 2.34%42.81fair odd
EV +89.20%
Edge +1.10%
Kelly +1.12%
Growth +0.995%

assuming max odds 81.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
1.17%2.20%2.29%3.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
26.0039.7438.5081.003.85%2.52%2.60%1.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 5.60%17.86fair odd
EV +28.78%
Edge +1.25%
Kelly +1.31%
Growth +0.376%

assuming max odds 23.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.11%5.71%5.72%12.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.7016.9017.5023.0014.93%5.92%5.71%4.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chelsea (Local): 92.07%; Austria Wien (Visit): 2.34%; Draw: 5.60%. For Austria Wien (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 42.81. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 81.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +89.20%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.91%EV -6.09%E -5.97%K -304.68%G +0.000%81.00I 1.23%NM 1.17%EV +89.20%E +1.10%K +1.12%G +0.995%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.92%EV -10.42%E -0.651%K -0.694%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-23 18:55
NetBet (FR)🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 92.78%EV -7.93%E -7.93%K +0.000%G +0.000%45.00I 2.22%NM 2.06%EV +5.11%E +0.114%K +0.116%G +0.006%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.15%EV +0.783%E +0.043%K +0.046%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-23 18:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.53%EV -6.09%E -5.97%K -304.68%G +0.000%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.33%EV -4.23%E -0.103%K -0.106%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.15%EV +28.78%E +1.25%K +1.31%G +0.376%4.8%2026-09-23 18:30
BetMGM🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.83%EV -6.09%E -5.97%K -304.68%G +0.000%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.31%EV -4.23%E -0.103%K -0.106%G +0.000%19.50I 5.13%NM 4.86%EV +9.18%E +0.471%K +0.496%G +0.046%5.6%2026-09-23 18:55
SportsBet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.59%EV -7.01%E -6.94%K -701.42%G +0.000%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.31%EV -4.23%E -0.103%K -0.106%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.11%EV +28.78%E +1.25%K +1.31%G +0.376%5.8%2026-09-23 18:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.78%EV -7.01%E -6.94%K -701.42%G +0.000%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.29%EV -4.23%E -0.103%K -0.106%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.93%EV +6.38%E +0.336%K +0.355%G +0.023%6.7%2026-09-23 18:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.78%EV -7.01%E -6.94%K -701.42%G +0.000%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.29%EV -4.23%E -0.103%K -0.106%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.93%EV +6.38%E +0.336%K +0.355%G +0.023%6.7%2026-09-23 18:30
Paddy Power🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.92%EV -7.01%E -6.94%K -701.42%G +0.000%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.61%EV -15.91%E -0.442%K -0.455%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV +17.58%E +0.837%K +0.879%G +0.155%6.5%2026-09-23 18:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 90.52%EV -7.01%E -6.94%K -701.42%G +0.000%34.40I 2.91%NM 2.66%EV -19.65%E -0.571%K -0.588%G +0.000%13.40I 7.46%NM 6.82%EV -24.97%E -1.86%K -2.01%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-23 18:55
Coral🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 91.82%EV -7.01%E -6.94%K -701.42%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.73%EV -20.58%E -0.605%K -0.624%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -4.82%E -0.283%K -0.301%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-23 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 91.82%EV -7.01%E -6.94%K -701.42%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.73%EV -20.58%E -0.605%K -0.624%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -4.82%E -0.283%K -0.301%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-23 18:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 91.43%EV -7.01%E -6.94%K -701.42%G +0.000%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.80%EV -22.92%E -0.694%K -0.716%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.77%EV -10.42%E -0.651%K -0.694%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-23 07:18
Unibet (FR)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 84.26%EV -7.01%E -6.94%K -701.42%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.04%EV -34.60%E -1.24%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 12.70%EV -62.49%E -9.33%K -10.96%G +0.000%17.5%2026-09-23 18:50
BoyleSports🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 85.83%EV -7.01%E -6.94%K -701.42%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.33%EV -39.27%E -1.51%K -1.57%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.84%EV -55.21%E -6.90%K -7.89%G +0.000%15.4%2026-09-23 15:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 95.90%75.00I 1.33%NM 1.33%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.77%0.3%2026-09-23 18:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 95.74%75.00I 1.33%NM 1.33%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.93%0.4%2026-09-23 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 95.74%75.00I 1.33%NM 1.33%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.93%0.4%2026-09-23 18:55