The School of Odds
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Chelsea v AS Roma

2026-10-28 17:45 UTC — UEFA Champions League Women

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chelsea (Local)

Prediction 87.42%1.14fair odd
EV -8.21%
Edge -7.82%
Kelly -164.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
82.47%87.42%87.11%89.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.031.041.0598.04%96.62%96.62%95.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AS Roma (Visit)

Prediction 3.85%26.00fair odd
EV +19.23%
Edge +0.620%
Kelly +0.641%
Growth +0.123%

assuming max odds 31.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.95%3.85%3.83%6.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
14.0023.4624.0031.007.14%4.26%4.17%3.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 8.73%11.45fair odd
EV +4.79%
Edge +0.399%
Kelly +0.435%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 12.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.59%8.73%9.06%11.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.3010.4711.0012.0013.70%9.55%9.09%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Chelsea (Local): 87.42%; AS Roma (Visit): 3.85%; Draw: 8.73%. For AS Roma (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 26.00. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 31.00, producing a positive expected value of +19.23%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 87.91%EV -9.08%E -8.73%K -227.04%G +0.000%31.00I 3.23%NM 2.95%EV +19.23%E +0.620%K +0.641%G +0.123%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.14%EV -12.68%E -1.27%K -1.41%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-24 18:14
SportsBet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 89.27%EV -10.83%E -10.62%K -541.50%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.14%EV +11.54%E +0.398%K +0.412%G +0.048%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV +4.79%E +0.399%K +0.435%G +0.021%9.8%2026-10-24 17:05
Betsson🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -8.21%E -7.82%K -164.15%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.87%EV -7.69%E -0.320%K -0.334%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.73%EV +4.79%E +0.399%K +0.435%G +0.021%7.7%2026-10-24 18:15
NordicBet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -8.21%E -7.82%K -164.15%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.87%EV -7.69%E -0.320%K -0.334%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.73%EV +4.79%E +0.399%K +0.435%G +0.021%7.7%2026-10-24 18:14
Betclic (FR)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 85.96%EV -9.96%E -9.67%K -331.86%G +0.000%18.75I 5.33%NM 4.72%EV -27.88%E -1.49%K -1.57%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.32%EV -17.04%E -1.79%K -2.01%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-24 18:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 82.47%EV -10.83%E -10.62%K -541.50%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.01%EV -46.15%E -3.30%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 11.52%EV -36.25%E -4.97%K -5.75%G +0.000%18.9%2026-10-24 18:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.