The School of Odds
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Chelsea v AS Roma

Kickoff: 2026-10-28 17:45 UTC

Final: Chelsea 2–0 AS Roma

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chelsea (Local)

Prediction 82.21%1.22fair odd
EV -6.28%
Edge -5.51%
Kelly -44.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.18%82.12%82.58%84.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.031.111.111.1497.09%90.45%90.09%87.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AS Roma (Visit)

Prediction 6.73%14.85fair odd
EV +7.71%
Edge +0.482%
Kelly +0.514%
Growth +0.040%

assuming max odds 16.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.73%6.79%6.61%8.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.5013.6113.7516.0010.53%7.35%7.27%6.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.06%9.04fair odd
EV +10.57%
Edge +1.06%
Kelly +1.17%
Growth +0.124%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.36%11.08%10.81%12.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.758.248.1310.0014.81%12.13%12.31%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chelsea (Local): 82.21%; AS Roma (Visit): 6.73%; Draw: 11.06%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.04. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.57%.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.49%EV -7.92%E -7.08%K -66.04%G +0.000%15.64I 6.39%NM 6.05%EV +5.29%E +0.338%K +0.361%G +0.019%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.46%EV +10.57%E +1.06%K +1.17%G +0.124%5.7%2026-10-28 17:40
Betway🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.84%EV -7.10%E -6.29%K -54.63%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.80%EV -19.22%E -1.60%K -1.75%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.36%EV +10.57%E +1.06%K +1.17%G +0.124%6.8%2026-10-28 17:39
DraftKings🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.73%EV -7.10%E -6.29%K -54.63%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +0.980%E +0.065%K +0.070%G +0.001%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.96%EV +5.05%E +0.531%K +0.594%G +0.030%5.7%2026-10-28 17:40
Coolbet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.48%EV -6.28%E -5.51%K -44.86%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.95%EV +7.71%E +0.482%K +0.514%G +0.040%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.57%EV -0.483%E -0.054%K -0.060%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-28 03:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.40%EV -7.92%E -7.08%K -66.04%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV +0.980%E +0.065%K +0.070%G +0.001%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV -0.483%E -0.054%K -0.060%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-28 17:40
Casumo🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.02%EV -8.75%E -7.88%K -79.51%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV +0.980%E +0.065%K +0.070%G +0.001%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.84%EV -6.01%E -0.707%K -0.802%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-28 17:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.02%EV -8.75%E -7.88%K -79.51%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV +0.980%E +0.065%K +0.070%G +0.001%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.84%EV -6.01%E -0.707%K -0.802%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-28 17:05
Grosvenor🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.02%EV -8.75%E -7.88%K -79.51%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV +0.980%E +0.065%K +0.070%G +0.001%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.84%EV -6.01%E -0.707%K -0.802%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-28 17:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.02%EV -8.75%E -7.88%K -79.51%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV +0.980%E +0.065%K +0.070%G +0.001%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.84%EV -6.01%E -0.707%K -0.802%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-28 17:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.02%EV -8.75%E -7.88%K -79.51%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV +0.980%E +0.065%K +0.070%G +0.001%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.84%EV -6.01%E -0.707%K -0.802%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-28 17:05
betPARX🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.02%EV -8.75%E -7.88%K -79.51%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV +0.980%E +0.065%K +0.070%G +0.001%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.84%EV -6.01%E -0.707%K -0.802%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-28 17:04
Bet Victor🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.14%EV -9.57%E -8.70%K -95.68%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV +0.980%E +0.065%K +0.070%G +0.001%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -6.01%E -0.707%K -0.802%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-28 17:33
Paddy Power🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 82.64%EV -11.21%E -10.38%K -140.16%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.87%EV -12.48%E -0.960%K -1.04%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.50%EV -6.01%E -0.707%K -0.802%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-28 17:40
SportsBet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 83.17%EV -12.03%E -11.25%K -171.92%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.36%EV -5.75%E -0.411%K -0.442%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.47%EV -6.01%E -0.707%K -0.802%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-28 17:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 83.66%EV -12.86%E -12.13%K -214.28%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.91%EV +0.980%E +0.065%K +0.070%G +0.001%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.43%EV -6.01%E -0.707%K -0.802%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-28 17:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 83.66%EV -12.86%E -12.13%K -214.28%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.91%EV +0.980%E +0.065%K +0.070%G +0.001%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.43%EV -6.01%E -0.707%K -0.802%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-28 17:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 82.58%EV -11.21%E -10.38%K -140.16%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 6.61%EV -9.12%E -0.675%K -0.729%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 10.81%EV -8.78%E -1.06%K -1.21%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-28 17:30
betano_uk🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.46%EV -8.75%E -7.88%K -79.51%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV +0.980%E +0.065%K +0.070%G +0.001%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.44%EV -11.54%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-28 17:40
BetMGM🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.68%EV -7.10%E -6.29%K -54.63%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.93%EV -22.58%E -1.96%K -2.15%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.40%EV -11.54%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-28 17:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.39%EV -7.10%E -6.29%K -54.63%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.26%EV -25.95%E -2.36%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.35%EV -11.54%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-28 05:09
Coral🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.39%EV -7.10%E -6.29%K -54.63%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.26%EV -25.95%E -2.36%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.35%EV -11.54%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-28 05:10
Bovada🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.08%EV -7.92%E -7.08%K -66.04%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.57%EV -19.22%E -1.60%K -1.75%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.35%EV -11.54%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-28 17:38
William Hill🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.69%EV -8.75%E -7.88%K -79.51%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.98%EV -12.48%E -0.960%K -1.04%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.33%EV -11.54%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-28 17:40
888sport🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.69%EV -8.75%E -7.88%K -79.51%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.98%EV -12.48%E -0.960%K -1.04%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.33%EV -11.54%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-28 17:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.69%EV -8.75%E -7.88%K -79.51%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.98%EV -12.48%E -0.960%K -1.04%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.33%EV -11.54%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-28 17:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.69%EV -8.75%E -7.88%K -79.51%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.98%EV -12.48%E -0.960%K -1.04%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.33%EV -11.54%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-28 17:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 83.51%EV -15.32%E -14.88%K -510.77%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.73%EV +0.980%E +0.065%K +0.070%G +0.001%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.75%EV -11.54%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%16.3%2026-10-28 17:00
1xBet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 81.93%EV -10.39%E -9.53%K -115.45%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 6.62%EV -9.12%E -0.675%K -0.729%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.45%EV -13.75%E -1.76%K -2.02%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-28 17:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.07%EV -6.28%E -5.51%K -44.86%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.60%EV -5.75%E -0.411%K -0.442%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.32%EV -17.07%E -2.28%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-28 17:39
Betsson🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.58%EV -7.10%E -6.29%K -54.63%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.28%EV -15.85%E -1.27%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.14%EV -17.07%E -2.28%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-28 03:05
NordicBet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.58%EV -7.10%E -6.29%K -54.63%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.28%EV -15.85%E -1.27%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.14%EV -17.07%E -2.28%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-28 03:05
BoyleSports🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 79.93%EV -8.75%E -7.88%K -79.51%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.39%EV -19.22%E -1.60%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.67%EV -22.60%E -3.23%K -3.77%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-28 15:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 79.18%EV -12.86%E -12.13%K -214.28%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 8.83%EV -36.05%E -3.79%K -4.24%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 11.99%EV -22.60%E -3.23%K -3.77%G +0.000%19.2%2026-10-28 17:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 79.97%EV -10.39%E -9.53%K -115.45%G +0.000%12.25I 8.16%NM 7.12%EV -17.53%E -1.43%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 12.91%EV -25.36%E -3.76%K -4.41%G +0.000%14.7%2026-10-28 17:18
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.15I 86.96%NM 86.26%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.72%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.02%0.8%2026-10-28 17:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.15I 86.96%NM 85.89%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.70%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.41%1.2%2026-10-28 17:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.15I 86.96%NM 85.89%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.70%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.41%1.2%2026-10-28 17:40
Smarkets◎1.15I 86.96%NM 85.69%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.93%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.38%1.5%2026-10-28 17:40