The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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BK Hacken v Juventus

Kickoff: 2026-09-30 16:45 UTC

Final: BK Hacken 0–3 Juventus

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

BK Hacken (Local)

Prediction 38.01%2.63fair odd
EV -6.51%
Edge -2.65%
Kelly -4.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.84%37.97%37.99%38.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.232.372.402.4644.84%42.17%41.67%40.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Juventus (Visit)

Prediction 35.56%2.81fair odd
EV -3.99%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -2.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.52%35.63%35.54%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.572.562.7044.44%38.97%38.99%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.44%3.78fair odd
EV -2.18%
Edge -0.590%
Kelly -0.809%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.27%26.40%26.48%27.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.183.423.403.7031.45%29.20%29.41%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: BK Hacken (Local): 38.01%; Juventus (Visit): 35.56%; Draw: 26.44%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.78. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.70, with an expected value of -2.18%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.19%EV -6.51%E -2.65%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 36.28%EV -7.91%E -3.05%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.53%EV -2.71%E -0.737%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-30 16:10
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.52%EV -6.89%E -2.81%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.62%EV -5.77%E -2.18%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.86%EV -3.51%E -0.960%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-30 14:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -6.89%E -2.81%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -7.55%E -2.90%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-30 14:50
Casumo🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.55%EV -7.65%E -3.15%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.69%EV -3.99%E -1.48%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-30 16:40
Coolbet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.48%EV -7.65%E -3.15%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.24%EV -8.26%E -3.20%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -2.18%E -0.590%K -0.809%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-30 13:30
1xBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.68%EV -8.03%E -3.32%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.46%EV -6.13%E -2.32%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.86%EV -4.30%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-30 16:40
NordicBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 37.43%EV -8.03%E -3.32%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.53%EV -9.33%E -3.66%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.04%EV -11.44%E -3.41%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-30 14:50
Betsson🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 37.43%EV -8.03%E -3.32%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.53%EV -9.33%E -3.66%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.04%EV -11.44%E -3.41%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-30 14:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 37.86%EV -8.41%E -3.49%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.78%EV -9.33%E -3.66%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.37%EV -8.53%E -2.46%K -3.47%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-30 16:40
Grosvenor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.99%EV -8.79%E -3.66%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.66%EV -3.99%E -1.48%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -6.15%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-30 16:10
Unibet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.99%EV -8.79%E -3.66%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.66%EV -3.99%E -1.48%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -6.15%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-30 16:15
betPARX🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.99%EV -8.79%E -3.66%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.66%EV -3.99%E -1.48%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -6.15%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-30 16:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.99%EV -8.79%E -3.66%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.66%EV -3.99%E -1.48%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -6.15%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-30 16:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.99%EV -8.79%E -3.66%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.66%EV -3.99%E -1.48%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -6.15%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-30 16:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.99%EV -8.79%E -3.66%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.66%EV -3.99%E -1.48%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -6.15%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-30 16:15
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.29%EV -8.79%E -3.66%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -5.77%E -2.18%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-29 21:19
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -8.79%E -3.66%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -11.11%E -4.44%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -4.83%E -1.34%K -1.86%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-30 13:30
Bet Victor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -8.79%E -3.66%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -7.55%E -2.90%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-30 16:25
betano_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -8.79%E -3.66%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -7.55%E -2.90%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-30 16:24
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -8.79%E -3.66%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -11.11%E -4.44%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-30 16:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.84%EV -8.79%E -3.66%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.36%EV -11.11%E -4.44%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 27.80%EV -15.93%E -5.01%K -7.31%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-30 16:18
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.87%EV -9.93%E -4.19%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.52%EV -7.55%E -2.90%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.61%EV -14.08%E -4.33%K -6.26%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-29 21:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.87%EV -9.93%E -4.19%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.52%EV -7.55%E -2.90%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.61%EV -14.08%E -4.33%K -6.26%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-29 21:20
NetBet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.86%EV -10.69%E -4.55%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.59%EV -11.11%E -4.44%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.56%EV -11.44%E -3.41%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-30 16:40
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.21%EV -12.59%E -5.47%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.16%EV -11.11%E -4.44%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.63%EV -12.76%E -3.87%K -5.55%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-30 16:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.21%EV -12.59%E -5.47%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.16%EV -11.11%E -4.44%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.63%EV -12.76%E -3.87%K -5.55%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-30 16:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.21%EV -12.59%E -5.47%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.16%EV -11.11%E -4.44%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.63%EV -12.76%E -3.87%K -5.55%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-30 16:25
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.79%EV -12.59%E -5.47%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.47%EV -12.88%E -5.26%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.74%EV -14.08%E -4.33%K -6.26%G +0.000%15.1%2026-09-30 16:24
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.66%EV -12.59%E -5.47%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.09%EV -14.66%E -6.11%K -10.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.25%EV -12.76%E -3.87%K -5.55%G +0.000%15.4%2026-09-30 16:25
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 36.92%EV -12.59%E -5.47%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 37.74%EV -19.99%E -8.89%K -16.00%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.35%EV -11.44%E -3.41%K -4.87%G +0.000%17.8%2026-09-30 16:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.84%EV -13.35%E -5.85%K -10.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.73%EV -9.33%E -3.66%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.43%EV -11.44%E -3.41%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-30 15:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.84%EV -13.35%E -5.85%K -10.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.73%EV -9.33%E -3.66%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.43%EV -11.44%E -3.41%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-30 15:45
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.47%EV -14.49%E -6.44%K -11.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.07%EV -14.66%E -6.11%K -10.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.46%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000%15.5%2026-09-30 13:30
PMU (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 38.52%EV -15.25%E -6.84%K -12.40%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 34.64%EV -11.82%E -4.76%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.84%EV -15.40%E -4.81%K -7.00%G +0.000%16.4%2026-09-30 16:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.72%2.76I 36.23%NM 36.08%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.20%0.4%2026-09-30 16:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.72%2.76I 36.23%NM 36.08%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.20%0.4%2026-09-30 16:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.72%2.76I 36.23%NM 36.08%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.20%0.4%2026-09-30 16:30
Smarkets◎2.62I 38.17%NM 37.93%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.26%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.81%0.6%2026-09-30 16:40