The School of Odds
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Benfica v Bayern Munich

Kickoff: 2026-09-30 19:00 UTC

Final: Benfica 0–3 Bayern Munich

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Benfica (Local)

Prediction 10.10%9.90fair odd
EV +6.10%
Edge +0.581%
Kelly +0.642%
Growth +0.039%

assuming max odds 10.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.69%10.08%10.23%11.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.509.059.0010.5013.33%11.05%11.11%9.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bayern Munich (Visit)

Prediction 74.89%1.34fair odd
EV -4.88%
Edge -3.85%
Kelly -18.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.74%75.04%74.84%77.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.211.211.2787.72%82.63%82.64%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 15.00%6.67fair odd
EV +5.01%
Edge +0.715%
Kelly +0.834%
Growth +0.042%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.14%14.88%14.93%16.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.136.107.0018.18%16.32%16.39%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Benfica (Local): 10.10%; Bayern Munich (Visit): 74.89%; Draw: 15.00%. For Benfica (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.90. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.10%.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.53%EV +1.04%E +0.104%K +0.116%G +0.001%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.86%EV -7.13%E -5.75%K -29.71%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.61%EV +5.01%E +0.715%K +0.834%G +0.042%4.9%2026-09-30 18:45
Betway🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.22%EV -9.06%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.64%EV -10.13%E -8.44%K -50.63%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV +5.01%E +0.715%K +0.834%G +0.042%8.7%2026-09-30 18:40
Pinnacle🎯10.47I 9.55%NM 8.96%EV +5.79%E +0.553%K +0.612%G +0.035%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.54%EV -9.38%E -7.75%K -44.66%G +0.000%6.95I 14.39%NM 13.50%EV +4.26%E +0.612%K +0.715%G +0.030%6.6%2026-09-30 18:55
betano_uk🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.69%EV +6.10%E +0.581%K +0.642%G +0.039%1.18I 84.75%NM 77.28%EV -11.62%E -9.85%K -64.58%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.03%EV -2.49%E -0.384%K -0.453%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-30 18:53
Paddy Power🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 8.84%EV +1.04%E +0.104%K +0.116%G +0.001%1.14I 87.72%NM 77.56%EV -14.62%E -12.82%K -104.43%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.60%EV -2.49%E -0.384%K -0.453%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-30 18:55
SportsBet🎯9.75I 10.26%NM 9.05%EV -1.48%E -0.152%K -0.169%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 77.38%EV -14.62%E -12.82%K -104.43%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.57%EV -2.49%E -0.384%K -0.453%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-30 18:54
Unibet🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.86%EV -4.01%E -0.422%K -0.471%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.51%EV -7.13%E -5.75%K -29.71%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -3.99%E -0.624%K -0.740%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-30 18:30
Svenska Spel🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.86%EV -4.01%E -0.422%K -0.471%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.51%EV -7.13%E -5.75%K -29.71%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -3.99%E -0.624%K -0.740%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-30 18:30
betPARX🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.86%EV -4.01%E -0.422%K -0.471%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.51%EV -7.13%E -5.75%K -29.71%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -3.99%E -0.624%K -0.740%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-30 18:30
Casumo🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.86%EV -4.01%E -0.422%K -0.471%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.51%EV -7.13%E -5.75%K -29.71%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -3.99%E -0.624%K -0.740%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-30 18:30
Grosvenor🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.86%EV -4.01%E -0.422%K -0.471%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.51%EV -7.13%E -5.75%K -29.71%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -3.99%E -0.624%K -0.740%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-30 18:30
ATG (SE)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.86%EV -4.01%E -0.422%K -0.471%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.51%EV -7.13%E -5.75%K -29.71%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -3.99%E -0.624%K -0.740%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-30 18:30
Unibet (NL)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.86%EV -4.01%E -0.422%K -0.471%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.51%EV -7.13%E -5.75%K -29.71%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -3.99%E -0.624%K -0.740%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-30 18:30
1xBet🎯9.62I 10.40%NM 9.73%EV -2.79%E -0.291%K -0.324%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.48%EV -7.13%E -5.75%K -29.71%G +0.000%6.33I 15.80%NM 14.79%EV -5.04%E -0.797%K -0.946%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-30 18:52
BetMGM🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV -14.11%E -1.66%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.24%EV -6.38%E -5.11%K -25.53%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.85%EV -6.24%E -0.999%K -1.19%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-30 18:54
Bovada🎯9.25I 10.81%NM 9.82%EV -6.53%E -0.706%K -0.792%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 75.66%EV -10.13%E -8.44%K -50.63%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.53%EV -6.24%E -0.999%K -1.19%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-30 18:44
BetOnline.ag🎯9.17I 10.91%NM 9.92%EV -7.34%E -0.801%K -0.899%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 75.21%EV -9.38%E -7.75%K -44.66%G +0.000%6.12I 16.34%NM 14.87%EV -8.19%E -1.34%K -1.60%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-30 18:55
NetBet (FR)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.14%EV -19.16%E -2.40%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 74.25%EV -10.13%E -8.44%K -50.63%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.61%EV -8.49%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-30 18:55
Unibet (UK)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -9.06%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 74.53%EV -7.88%E -6.41%K -34.26%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -9.99%E -1.67%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-30 18:55
Bet Victor🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV +6.10%E +0.581%K +0.642%G +0.039%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.09%EV -10.13%E -8.44%K -50.63%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -9.99%E -1.67%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-30 18:48
BoyleSports🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 9.87%EV -9.06%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 75.31%EV -11.62%E -9.85%K -64.58%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.81%EV -9.99%E -1.67%K -2.00%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-30 18:40
NordicBet🎯8.80I 11.36%NM 10.30%EV -11.08%E -1.26%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 74.33%EV -8.63%E -7.07%K -39.22%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.37%EV -11.49%E -1.95%K -2.35%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-30 18:55
Betsson🎯8.80I 11.36%NM 10.30%EV -11.08%E -1.26%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 74.33%EV -8.63%E -7.07%K -39.22%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.37%EV -11.49%E -1.95%K -2.35%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-30 18:55
LiveScore Bet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.41%EV -14.11%E -1.66%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 74.34%EV -10.88%E -9.14%K -57.24%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.25%EV -12.99%E -2.24%K -2.71%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-30 18:30
Virgin Bet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.41%EV -14.11%E -1.66%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 74.34%EV -10.88%E -9.14%K -57.24%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.25%EV -12.99%E -2.24%K -2.71%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-30 18:30
William Hill🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.05%EV -19.16%E -2.40%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 73.70%EV -10.13%E -8.44%K -50.63%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.25%EV -12.99%E -2.24%K -2.71%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-30 18:55
888sport (SE)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.59%EV -14.11%E -1.66%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 73.76%EV -8.63%E -7.07%K -39.22%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.65%EV -13.74%E -2.39%K -2.89%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-30 18:54
888sport🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 9.94%EV -9.06%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 74.51%EV -10.13%E -8.44%K -50.63%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.55%EV -13.74%E -2.39%K -2.89%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-30 18:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 9.94%EV -9.06%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 74.51%EV -10.13%E -8.44%K -50.63%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.55%EV -13.74%E -2.39%K -2.89%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-30 18:50
Coral🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.83%EV -24.22%E -3.23%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 72.74%EV -8.63%E -7.07%K -39.22%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.43%EV -13.74%E -2.39%K -2.89%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-30 18:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.83%EV -24.22%E -3.23%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 72.74%EV -8.63%E -7.07%K -39.22%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.43%EV -13.74%E -2.39%K -2.89%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-30 18:55
Betclic (FR)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.06%EV -19.16%E -2.40%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 73.14%EV -9.38%E -7.75%K -44.66%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.80%EV -15.99%E -2.86%K -3.48%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-30 18:53
PMU (FR)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.09%EV -14.11%E -1.66%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 74.59%EV -13.87%E -12.06%K -92.48%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.32%EV -15.99%E -2.86%K -3.48%G +0.000%16.6%2026-09-30 18:30
Coolbet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -9.06%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 72.89%EV -4.88%E -3.85%K -18.09%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.83%EV -17.49%E -3.18%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-30 14:55
Unibet (FR)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 10.63%EV -19.16%E -2.40%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 73.92%EV -13.87%E -12.06%K -92.48%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.46%EV -17.49%E -3.18%K -3.89%G +0.000%17.6%2026-09-30 18:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎13.00I 7.69%NM 7.65%1.25I 80.00%NM 79.59%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.76%0.5%2026-09-30 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎13.00I 7.69%NM 7.63%1.25I 80.00%NM 79.33%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.05%0.9%2026-09-30 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎13.50I 7.41%NM 7.34%1.24I 80.65%NM 79.95%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.71%0.9%2026-09-30 18:55
Smarkets◎13.00I 7.69%NM 7.58%1.24I 80.65%NM 79.46%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.96%1.5%2026-09-30 18:55