The School of Odds
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Bayern Munich v Real Madrid

Kickoff: 2026-10-28 17:45 UTC

Final: Bayern Munich 2–2 Real Madrid

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bayern Munich (Local)

Prediction 60.45%1.65fair odd
EV -5.70%
Edge -3.66%
Kelly -10.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.54%60.46%60.42%63.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.481.501.5673.53%67.45%66.67%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Real Madrid (Visit)

Prediction 19.01%5.26fair odd
EV +14.07%
Edge +2.34%
Kelly +2.81%
Growth +0.396%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.66%18.88%19.01%20.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.305.014.806.0023.26%19.95%20.83%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.54%4.87fair odd
EV -2.42%
Edge -0.510%
Kelly -0.647%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.81%20.66%20.57%22.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.374.374.7525.00%22.86%22.88%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bayern Munich (Local): 60.45%; Real Madrid (Visit): 19.01%; Draw: 20.54%. For Real Madrid (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.26. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.07%.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Casumo🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.92%EV -11.14%E -7.58%K -23.71%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV +14.07%E +2.34%K +2.81%G +0.396%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV -5.51%E -1.20%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-28 17:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.92%EV -11.14%E -7.58%K -23.71%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV +14.07%E +2.34%K +2.81%G +0.396%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV -5.51%E -1.20%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-28 17:25
Grosvenor🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.92%EV -11.14%E -7.58%K -23.71%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV +14.07%E +2.34%K +2.81%G +0.396%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV -5.51%E -1.20%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-28 17:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.92%EV -11.14%E -7.58%K -23.71%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV +14.07%E +2.34%K +2.81%G +0.396%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV -5.51%E -1.20%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-28 17:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.92%EV -11.14%E -7.58%K -23.71%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV +14.07%E +2.34%K +2.81%G +0.396%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV -5.51%E -1.20%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-28 17:25
betPARX🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.92%EV -11.14%E -7.58%K -23.71%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV +14.07%E +2.34%K +2.81%G +0.396%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV -5.51%E -1.20%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-28 17:25
Coolbet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.64%EV -8.12%E -5.34%K -15.62%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.31%EV +4.56%E +0.830%K +1.01%G +0.046%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.05%EV -2.42%E -0.510%K -0.647%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-28 13:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 62.93%EV -14.77%E -10.48%K -36.03%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.43%EV +2.66%E +0.493%K +0.605%G +0.016%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.64%EV -11.67%E -2.71%K -3.54%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-28 17:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 62.93%EV -14.77%E -10.48%K -36.03%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.43%EV +2.66%E +0.493%K +0.605%G +0.016%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.64%EV -11.67%E -2.71%K -3.54%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-28 17:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 63.18%EV -17.79%E -13.08%K -49.42%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.37%EV -0.190%E -0.036%K -0.045%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.46%EV -13.72%E -3.27%K -4.29%G +0.000%16.4%2026-10-28 17:25
1xBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.47%EV -11.14%E -7.58%K -23.71%G +0.000%5.09I 19.65%NM 17.75%EV -3.23%E -0.635%K -0.790%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.77%EV -10.64%E -2.45%K -3.18%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-28 15:10
Pinnacle🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.02%EV -6.31%E -4.07%K -11.47%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.73%EV -3.99%E -0.791%K -0.986%G +0.000%4.67I 21.41%NM 20.25%EV -4.07%E -0.871%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-28 17:40
DraftKings🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.83%EV -5.70%E -3.66%K -10.18%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.98%EV -4.94%E -0.989%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.19%EV -3.45%E -0.734%K -0.933%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-28 17:25
betano_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.94%EV -9.33%E -6.22%K -18.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -4.94%E -0.989%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.78%EV -9.61%E -2.19%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-28 12:15
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.94%EV -9.33%E -6.22%K -18.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -4.94%E -0.989%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.78%EV -9.61%E -2.19%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-28 12:15
Betsson🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.19%EV -9.33%E -6.22%K -18.66%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.81%EV -8.75%E -1.82%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.00%EV -11.67%E -2.71%K -3.54%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-28 12:05
NordicBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.19%EV -9.33%E -6.22%K -18.66%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.81%EV -8.75%E -1.82%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.00%EV -11.67%E -2.71%K -3.54%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-28 12:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.29%EV -12.35%E -8.52%K -27.45%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.51%EV -8.75%E -1.82%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.20%EV -9.61%E -2.19%K -2.83%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-28 17:39
Unibet (UK)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.01%EV -6.91%E -4.49%K -12.80%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.46%EV -9.70%E -2.04%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.54%EV -7.56%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-28 12:04
Betway🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.16%EV -7.52%E -4.91%K -14.18%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.38%EV -9.70%E -2.04%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%EV -7.56%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-28 17:35
Bovada🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.76%EV -7.52%E -4.91%K -14.18%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.45%EV -10.65%E -2.27%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.78%EV -9.61%E -2.19%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-28 17:33
Betclic (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 60.48%EV -11.75%E -8.05%K -25.54%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 18.99%EV -11.60%E -2.49%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.53%EV -11.67%E -2.71%K -3.54%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-28 17:18
BetOnline.ag🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.72%EV -8.12%E -5.34%K -15.62%G +0.000%4.63I 21.60%NM 19.61%EV -11.98%E -2.59%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.39I 22.78%NM 20.68%EV -9.82%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-28 17:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.41%EV -9.33%E -6.22%K -18.66%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -12.55%E -2.73%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -13.72%E -3.27%K -4.29%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-28 15:50
BetMGM🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.41%EV -9.33%E -6.22%K -18.66%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -12.55%E -2.73%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -13.72%E -3.27%K -4.29%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-28 15:50
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.41%EV -9.33%E -6.22%K -18.66%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -12.55%E -2.73%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -13.72%E -3.27%K -4.29%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-28 15:50
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.79%EV -9.33%E -6.22%K -18.66%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.17%EV -12.55%E -2.73%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.04%EV -17.83%E -4.46%K -5.94%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-28 17:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.79%EV -9.33%E -6.22%K -18.66%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.17%EV -12.55%E -2.73%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.04%EV -17.83%E -4.46%K -5.94%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-28 17:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.79%EV -9.33%E -6.22%K -18.66%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.17%EV -12.55%E -2.73%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.04%EV -17.83%E -4.46%K -5.94%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-28 17:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 61.89%EV -17.79%E -13.08%K -49.42%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.30%EV -12.55%E -2.73%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 19.81%EV -12.70%E -2.99%K -3.91%G +0.000%18.8%2026-10-28 17:15
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.00%EV -9.33%E -6.22%K -18.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -14.45%E -3.21%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -7.56%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-28 17:35
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.54%EV -9.33%E -6.22%K -18.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.51%EV -14.45%E -3.21%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.95%EV -17.83%E -4.46%K -5.94%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-28 17:34
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.06%EV -12.96%E -9.00%K -29.45%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 19.97%EV -17.68%E -4.08%K -5.31%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 19.97%EV -11.05%E -2.55%K -3.32%G +0.000%15.6%2026-10-28 17:35
SportsBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 59.23%EV -10.54%E -7.12%K -21.96%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.39%EV -18.25%E -4.24%K -5.53%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.39%EV -11.67%E -2.71%K -3.54%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-28 17:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.29%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.98%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.74%1.3%2026-10-28 17:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.29%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.98%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.74%1.3%2026-10-28 17:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.29%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.98%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.74%1.3%2026-10-28 17:40
Smarkets◎1.60I 62.50%NM 60.94%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.75%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.31%2.6%2026-10-28 17:40