The School of Odds
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Bayern Munich v Manchester City

2026-09-22 16:45 UTC — UEFA Champions League Women

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bayern Munich (Local)

Prediction 43.47%2.30fair odd
EV -4.37%
Edge -1.99%
Kelly -3.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.85%43.10%43.47%45.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.082.082.2052.63%48.08%47.96%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Manchester City (Visit)

Prediction 31.78%3.15fair odd
EV -4.66%
Edge -1.55%
Kelly -2.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.11%31.86%31.78%33.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.782.703.0040.00%35.98%37.04%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.75%4.04fair odd
EV -5.94%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -2.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.71%25.04%24.75%26.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.623.673.8030.30%27.59%27.21%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Bayern Munich (Local): 43.47%; Manchester City (Visit): 31.78%; Draw: 24.75%. For Bayern Munich (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.30. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.20, with an expected value of -4.37%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
betano_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -4.37%E -1.99%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.93%EV -14.20%E -5.26%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -7.18%E -1.91%K -2.61%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-20 21:04
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -4.37%E -1.99%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.93%EV -14.20%E -5.26%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -7.18%E -1.91%K -2.61%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-20 21:15
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.85%EV -6.54%E -3.04%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.53%EV -14.20%E -5.26%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -18.32%E -5.55%K -7.96%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-21 02:09
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.85%EV -6.54%E -3.04%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.53%EV -14.20%E -5.26%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -18.32%E -5.55%K -7.96%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-21 02:14
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.29%EV -8.71%E -4.15%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -11.02%E -3.94%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -7.18%E -1.91%K -2.61%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-21 02:12
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.91%EV -8.71%E -4.15%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.38%EV -14.20%E -5.26%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.71%EV -5.94%E -1.56%K -2.12%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-21 02:09
SportsBet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 42.72%EV -10.02%E -4.84%K -9.36%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.37%EV -15.79%E -5.96%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.90%EV -8.42%E -2.27%K -3.12%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-21 02:09
Unibet (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -10.89%E -5.31%K -10.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -4.66%E -1.55%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -5.94%E -1.56%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-21 02:04
NordicBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.91%EV -12.19%E -6.04%K -11.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.24%EV -4.66%E -1.55%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.85%EV -9.65%E -2.65%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-21 02:09
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.91%EV -12.19%E -6.04%K -11.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.24%EV -4.66%E -1.55%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.85%EV -9.65%E -2.65%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-21 02:09
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 41.87%EV -13.06%E -6.53%K -13.06%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 33.50%EV -20.55%E -8.22%K -13.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.63%EV -15.84%E -4.66%K -6.60%G +0.000%19.4%2026-09-21 02:09
Unibet (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 45.96%EV -17.41%E -9.16%K -19.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.11%EV -7.84%E -2.70%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.93%EV -9.65%E -2.65%K -3.64%G +0.000%14.5%2026-09-21 02:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 33.14%1.12I 89.29%NM 33.43%1.12I 89.29%NM 33.43%167.1%2026-09-21 00:34
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 33.14%1.12I 89.29%NM 33.43%1.12I 89.29%NM 33.43%167.1%2026-09-20 21:04
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.12I 89.29%NM 32.73%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.94%172.8%2026-09-21 00:54