The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Bayern Munich v Manchester City

Kickoff: 2026-09-22 16:45 UTC

Final: Bayern Munich 2–2 Manchester City

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bayern Munich (Local)

Prediction 48.26%2.07fair odd
EV -3.47%
Edge -1.74%
Kelly -3.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.54%48.31%48.29%53.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.891.882.0057.14%52.94%53.19%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Manchester City (Visit)

Prediction 29.80%3.36fair odd
EV +8.49%
Edge +2.33%
Kelly +3.22%
Growth +0.273%

assuming max odds 3.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.67%29.78%29.77%30.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.063.053.6436.36%32.73%32.79%27.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.93%4.56fair odd
EV -2.63%
Edge -0.592%
Kelly -0.764%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.85%21.90%21.94%23.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.094.104.4426.67%24.46%24.39%22.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bayern Munich (Local): 48.26%; Manchester City (Visit): 29.80%; Draw: 21.93%. For Manchester City (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.36. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.64, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.49%.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.09%EV -15.05%E -8.55%K -19.81%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.67%EV +8.49%E +2.33%K +3.22%G +0.273%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -3.51%E -0.797%K -1.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-22 16:40
betano_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.77%EV -11.68%E -6.38%K -14.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -3.13%E -0.964%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.21%EV -10.08%E -2.46%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-22 16:39
Bet Victor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.77%EV -11.68%E -6.38%K -14.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -3.13%E -0.964%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.21%EV -10.08%E -2.46%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-22 16:39
Unibet (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -7.81%E -4.09%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -4.62%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -7.89%E -1.88%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-22 16:35
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.49%EV -5.88%E -3.02%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.02%EV -6.11%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.49%EV -3.51%E -0.797%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-22 16:35
Coolbet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -6.37%E -3.28%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -6.11%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.23%EV -7.89%E -1.88%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-22 16:40
Pinnacle🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.66%EV -6.85%E -3.55%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.19%EV -7.31%E -2.35%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.44I 22.52%NM 21.15%EV -2.63%E -0.592%K -0.764%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-22 16:35
BetMGM🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.55%EV -8.78%E -4.65%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -7.60%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -7.89%E -1.88%K -2.47%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-22 16:35
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.29%EV -9.26%E -4.93%K -10.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -7.60%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.42%EV -11.18%E -2.76%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-22 16:35
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.29%EV -9.26%E -4.93%K -10.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -7.60%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.42%EV -11.18%E -2.76%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-22 16:35
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.56%EV -10.71%E -5.79%K -12.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -7.60%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -12.28%E -3.07%K -4.09%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-22 16:35
SportsBet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 48.82%EV -13.61%E -7.60%K -17.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.19%EV -7.60%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.00%EV -16.66%E -4.39%K -5.95%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-22 16:39
BetOnline.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.72%EV -9.75%E -5.21%K -11.20%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 29.58%EV -8.20%E -2.66%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.69%EV -7.89%E -1.88%K -2.47%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-22 16:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -3.47%E -1.74%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.59%EV -9.10%E -2.98%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -10.08%E -2.46%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-22 15:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -3.47%E -1.74%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.59%EV -9.10%E -2.98%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -10.08%E -2.46%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-22 15:50
betPARX🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -3.47%E -1.74%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.59%EV -9.10%E -2.98%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -10.08%E -2.46%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-22 15:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -3.47%E -1.74%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.59%EV -9.10%E -2.98%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -10.08%E -2.46%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-22 15:50
Grosvenor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -3.47%E -1.74%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.59%EV -9.10%E -2.98%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -10.08%E -2.46%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-22 15:50
Casumo🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -3.47%E -1.74%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.59%EV -9.10%E -2.98%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -10.08%E -2.46%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-22 15:50
Bovada🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.45%EV -9.26%E -4.93%K -10.53%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -9.10%E -2.98%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.69%EV -7.89%E -1.88%K -2.47%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-22 16:39
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.13%EV -7.81%E -4.09%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.23%EV -5.04%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-22 16:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.26%EV -12.16%E -6.68%K -14.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.85%EV -5.70%E -1.33%K -1.73%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-22 16:25
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.10%EV -10.71%E -5.79%K -12.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -12.28%E -3.07%K -4.09%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-22 16:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.10%EV -10.71%E -5.79%K -12.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -12.28%E -3.07%K -4.09%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-22 16:35
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.54%EV -10.71%E -5.79%K -12.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.32%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.14%EV -16.66%E -4.39%K -5.95%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-22 16:39
NetBet (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.71%EV -9.26%E -4.93%K -10.53%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.41%EV -12.08%E -4.09%K -6.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.88%EV -10.08%E -2.46%K -3.25%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-22 16:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 46.54%EV -8.30%E -4.37%K -9.22%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.49%EV -13.57%E -4.68%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.97%EV -15.57%E -4.04%K -5.46%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-22 15:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 46.54%EV -8.30%E -4.37%K -9.22%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.49%EV -13.57%E -4.68%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.97%EV -15.57%E -4.04%K -5.46%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-22 15:50
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.34%EV -10.71%E -5.79%K -12.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.20%EV -13.57%E -4.68%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.46%EV -14.47%E -3.71%K -4.99%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-22 16:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.24%EV -9.75%E -5.21%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.67%EV -14.16%E -4.92%K -7.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.09%EV -12.28%E -3.07%K -4.09%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-22 16:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 46.69%EV -11.68%E -6.38%K -14.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.52%EV -16.55%E -5.91%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.79%EV -17.76%E -4.74%K -6.46%G +0.000%17.0%2026-09-22 15:50
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 48.22%EV -15.54%E -8.88%K -20.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 30.68%EV -18.04%E -6.56%K -10.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.10%EV -12.28%E -3.07%K -4.09%G +0.000%18.5%2026-09-22 16:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.99I 50.25%NM 49.93%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.08%0.6%2026-09-22 16:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.98I 50.51%NM 50.06%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.92%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.02%0.9%2026-09-22 16:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.99I 50.25%NM 49.73%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99%1.0%2026-09-22 16:40
Smarkets◎1.96I 51.02%NM 49.91%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.35%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.74%2.2%2026-09-22 16:40