The School of Odds
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Austria Wien v Inter Milan

Kickoff: 2026-10-01 16:45 UTC

Final: Austria Wien 1–1 Inter Milan

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Austria Wien (Local)

Prediction 23.19%4.31fair odd
EV +0.416%
Edge +0.096%
Kelly +0.125%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 4.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.10%23.20%23.19%25.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.014.004.3327.78%24.92%25.00%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Inter Milan (Visit)

Prediction 51.89%1.93fair odd
EV -6.08%
Edge -3.36%
Kelly -7.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.67%51.89%51.90%53.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.731.741.8162.50%57.65%57.47%55.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.92%4.01fair odd
EV -2.32%
Edge -0.592%
Kelly -0.795%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.95%24.90%24.90%26.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.643.603.9229.41%27.47%27.78%25.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Austria Wien (Local): 23.19%; Inter Milan (Visit): 51.89%; Draw: 24.92%. For Austria Wien (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.31. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.33, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.416%.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Bet Victor🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.10%EV +0.416%E +0.096%K +0.125%G +0.001%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -10.23%E -5.91%K -14.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -12.79%E -3.65%K -5.11%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-01 16:40
Unibet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -0.279%E -0.065%K -0.085%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.41%EV -8.67%E -4.93%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.74%EV -5.31%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-01 16:04
Svenska Spel🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -0.279%E -0.065%K -0.085%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.41%EV -8.67%E -4.93%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.74%EV -5.31%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-01 16:05
betPARX🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -0.279%E -0.065%K -0.085%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.41%EV -8.67%E -4.93%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.74%EV -5.31%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-01 16:04
Casumo🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -0.279%E -0.065%K -0.085%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.41%EV -8.67%E -4.93%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.74%EV -5.31%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-01 16:05
Grosvenor🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -0.279%E -0.065%K -0.085%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.41%EV -8.67%E -4.93%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.74%EV -5.31%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-01 16:05
ATG (SE)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -0.279%E -0.065%K -0.085%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.41%EV -8.67%E -4.93%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.74%EV -5.31%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-01 16:05
Unibet (NL)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -0.279%E -0.065%K -0.085%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.41%EV -8.67%E -4.93%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.74%EV -5.31%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-01 16:05
betano_uk🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -2.60%E -0.619%K -0.812%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -9.19%E -5.25%K -12.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -12.79%E -3.65%K -5.11%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-01 16:39
1xBet🎯4.13I 24.21%NM 22.60%EV -4.22%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.03%EV -8.67%E -4.93%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 24.37%EV -4.56%E -1.19%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-01 16:35
BetMGM🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -4.92%E -1.20%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.78%EV -9.71%E -5.58%K -13.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -7.80%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-01 15:00
DraftKings🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -7.24%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -6.60%E -3.66%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -2.82%E -0.723%K -0.972%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-01 16:00
Unibet (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -7.24%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.92%EV -7.63%E -4.29%K -9.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.98%EV -7.80%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-01 15:00
Bovada🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.77%EV -7.24%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.95%EV -10.75%E -6.25%K -14.93%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -6.56%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-01 16:40
Coral🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -7.24%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.90%EV -10.23%E -5.91%K -14.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -12.79%E -3.65%K -5.11%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-01 16:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -7.24%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.90%EV -10.23%E -5.91%K -14.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -12.79%E -3.65%K -5.11%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-01 16:35
Paddy Power🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -7.24%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.51%EV -13.34%E -7.99%K -19.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.15%EV -7.80%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-01 16:29
LiveScore Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -7.24%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 52.97%EV -13.34%E -7.99%K -19.91%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.92%EV -11.54%E -3.25%K -4.53%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-01 16:05
Virgin Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -7.24%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 52.97%EV -13.34%E -7.99%K -19.91%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.92%EV -11.54%E -3.25%K -4.53%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-01 16:05
Betsson🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 22.80%EV -8.40%E -2.13%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.47%EV -9.19%E -5.25%K -12.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -12.79%E -3.65%K -5.11%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-01 15:00
NordicBet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 22.80%EV -8.40%E -2.13%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.47%EV -9.19%E -5.25%K -12.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -12.79%E -3.65%K -5.11%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-01 15:00
BetOnline.ag🎯3.92I 25.51%NM 23.23%EV -9.09%E -2.32%K -3.11%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 51.75%EV -8.67%E -4.93%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.02%EV -9.30%E -2.55%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-01 16:35
Betclic (FR)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.67%EV -9.56%E -2.45%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 52.63%EV -12.82%E -7.63%K -18.86%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 24.70%EV -10.79%E -3.01%K -4.18%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-01 16:18
SportsBet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.40%EV -9.56%E -2.45%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 52.63%EV -13.86%E -8.35%K -21.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.96%EV -12.79%E -3.65%K -5.11%G +0.000%14.5%2026-10-01 16:29
Pinnacle🎯3.88I 25.77%NM 24.19%EV -10.02%E -2.58%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.86%EV -6.08%E -3.36%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.95%EV -2.32%E -0.592%K -0.795%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-01 16:35
NetBet (FR)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.14%EV -10.72%E -2.78%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 52.11%EV -11.27%E -6.59%K -15.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -10.29%E -2.86%K -3.96%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-01 16:40
888sport🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.35%EV -11.87%E -3.12%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.29%EV -10.23%E -5.91%K -14.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -12.79%E -3.65%K -5.11%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-01 16:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.35%EV -11.87%E -3.12%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.29%EV -10.23%E -5.91%K -14.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -12.79%E -3.65%K -5.11%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-01 16:00
888sport (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.35%EV -11.87%E -3.12%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.29%EV -10.23%E -5.91%K -14.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -12.79%E -3.65%K -5.11%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-01 16:01
BoyleSports🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.59%EV -13.03%E -3.48%K -4.74%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.13%EV -10.23%E -5.91%K -14.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.28%EV -12.79%E -3.65%K -5.11%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-01 15:05
William Hill🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.42%EV -13.03%E -3.48%K -4.74%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 50.76%EV -10.23%E -5.91%K -14.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.83%EV -15.28%E -4.49%K -6.37%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-01 16:01
Unibet (FR)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 22.72%EV -14.19%E -3.84%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 52.55%EV -16.97%E -10.61%K -28.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.73%EV -15.28%E -4.49%K -6.37%G +0.000%18.9%2026-10-01 16:20
Betway🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -16.51%E -4.59%K -6.35%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.67%EV -6.60%E -3.66%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -5.31%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-01 15:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.60I 21.74%NM 21.51%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.36%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.13%1.1%2026-10-01 16:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.60I 21.74%NM 21.51%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.36%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.13%1.1%2026-10-01 16:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.60I 21.74%NM 21.51%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.36%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.13%1.1%2026-10-01 16:30
Smarkets◎4.50I 22.22%NM 21.95%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.97%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.09%1.3%2026-10-01 16:40