The School of Odds
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AS Roma v Barcelona

Kickoff: 2026-09-30 16:45 UTC

Final: AS Roma 0–6 Barcelona

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AS Roma (Local)

Prediction 4.90%20.40fair odd
EV +27.46%
Edge +1.06%
Kelly +1.10%
Growth +0.302%

assuming max odds 26.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.56%4.94%4.86%6.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
13.0020.3119.0026.007.69%4.92%5.26%3.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Barcelona (Visit)

Prediction 86.74%1.15fair odd
EV -5.45%
Edge -5.00%
Kelly -60.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
82.44%86.73%86.78%89.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.051.051.0999.01%95.21%95.24%91.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 8.36%11.97fair odd
EV +17.00%
Edge +1.21%
Kelly +1.31%
Growth +0.222%

assuming max odds 14.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.56%8.33%8.36%11.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.5011.4611.1314.0013.33%8.72%8.99%7.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AS Roma (Local): 4.90%; Barcelona (Visit): 86.74%; Draw: 8.36%. For AS Roma (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 20.40. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 26.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +27.46%.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.65%EV +27.46%E +1.06%K +1.10%G +0.302%1.06I 94.34%NM 89.57%EV -8.06%E -7.60%K -134.25%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.78%EV +17.00%E +1.21%K +1.31%G +0.222%5.3%2026-09-30 16:00
Unibet🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.57%EV +27.46%E +1.06%K +1.10%G +0.302%1.04I 96.15%NM 89.29%EV -9.79%E -9.41%K -244.75%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV +8.64%E +0.665%K +0.720%G +0.062%7.7%2026-09-30 16:06
betPARX🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.57%EV +27.46%E +1.06%K +1.10%G +0.302%1.04I 96.15%NM 89.29%EV -9.79%E -9.41%K -244.75%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV +8.64%E +0.665%K +0.720%G +0.062%7.7%2026-09-30 16:05
Casumo🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.57%EV +27.46%E +1.06%K +1.10%G +0.302%1.04I 96.15%NM 89.29%EV -9.79%E -9.41%K -244.75%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV +8.64%E +0.665%K +0.720%G +0.062%7.7%2026-09-30 16:00
Grosvenor🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.57%EV +27.46%E +1.06%K +1.10%G +0.302%1.04I 96.15%NM 89.29%EV -9.79%E -9.41%K -244.75%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV +8.64%E +0.665%K +0.720%G +0.062%7.7%2026-09-30 16:00
ATG (SE)🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.57%EV +27.46%E +1.06%K +1.10%G +0.302%1.04I 96.15%NM 89.29%EV -9.79%E -9.41%K -244.75%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV +8.64%E +0.665%K +0.720%G +0.062%7.7%2026-09-30 16:00
Unibet (NL)🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.57%EV +27.46%E +1.06%K +1.10%G +0.302%1.04I 96.15%NM 89.29%EV -9.79%E -9.41%K -244.75%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV +8.64%E +0.665%K +0.720%G +0.062%7.7%2026-09-30 16:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.56%EV +27.46%E +1.06%K +1.10%G +0.302%1.06I 94.34%NM 87.20%EV -8.06%E -7.60%K -134.25%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -16.43%E -1.64%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-30 16:30
Unibet (UK)🎯23.00I 4.35%NM 4.03%EV +12.76%E +0.555%K +0.580%G +0.074%1.06I 94.34%NM 87.53%EV -8.06%E -7.60%K -134.25%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -8.07%E -0.734%K -0.807%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-30 16:30
LiveScore Bet🎯23.00I 4.35%NM 3.89%EV +12.76%E +0.555%K +0.580%G +0.074%1.01I 99.01%NM 88.65%EV -12.39%E -12.27%K -1239.21%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.46%EV +0.285%E +0.024%K +0.026%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-30 16:06
Virgin Bet🎯23.00I 4.35%NM 3.89%EV +12.76%E +0.555%K +0.580%G +0.074%1.01I 99.01%NM 88.65%EV -12.39%E -12.27%K -1239.21%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.46%EV +0.285%E +0.024%K +0.026%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-30 16:06
Coolbet🎯21.00I 4.76%NM 4.45%EV +2.95%E +0.141%K +0.148%G +0.004%1.07I 93.46%NM 87.26%EV -7.19%E -6.72%K -102.68%G +0.000%11.25I 8.89%NM 8.30%EV -5.98%E -0.532%K -0.584%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-29 10:24
betano_uk🎯21.00I 4.76%NM 4.35%EV +2.95%E +0.141%K +0.148%G +0.004%1.05I 95.24%NM 86.96%EV -8.92%E -8.50%K -178.45%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -12.25%E -1.17%K -1.29%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-30 16:38
Bet Victor🎯21.00I 4.76%NM 4.35%EV +2.95%E +0.141%K +0.148%G +0.004%1.05I 95.24%NM 86.96%EV -8.92%E -8.50%K -178.45%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -12.25%E -1.17%K -1.29%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-30 16:40
BetMGM🎯20.00I 5.00%NM 4.72%EV -1.95%E -0.098%K -0.103%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -6.32%E -5.85%K -79.00%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.87%EV +0.285%E +0.024%K +0.026%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-30 16:35
DraftKings🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.99%EV -6.85%E -0.361%K -0.381%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 87.73%EV -6.32%E -5.85%K -79.00%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.29%EV +8.64%E +0.665%K +0.720%G +0.062%5.5%2026-09-30 16:30
Betway🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.92%EV -6.85%E -0.361%K -0.381%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 87.30%EV -7.19%E -6.72%K -102.68%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV +0.285%E +0.024%K +0.026%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-30 16:25
William Hill🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.84%EV -6.85%E -0.361%K -0.381%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 85.96%EV -7.19%E -6.72%K -102.68%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -16.43%E -1.64%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-30 16:40
NordicBet🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.80%EV -6.85%E -0.361%K -0.381%G +0.000%1.05I 95.24%NM 86.90%EV -8.92%E -8.50%K -178.45%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.30%EV -8.07%E -0.734%K -0.807%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-30 16:30
888sport🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.80%EV -6.85%E -0.361%K -0.381%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 86.07%EV -8.06%E -7.60%K -134.25%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -16.43%E -1.64%K -1.83%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-30 16:40
888sport (SE)🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.80%EV -6.85%E -0.361%K -0.381%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 86.07%EV -8.06%E -7.60%K -134.25%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -16.43%E -1.64%K -1.83%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-30 16:40
Betsson🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.76%EV -6.85%E -0.361%K -0.381%G +0.000%1.05I 95.24%NM 86.19%EV -8.92%E -8.50%K -178.45%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.05%EV -16.43%E -1.64%K -1.83%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-30 16:40
1xBet🎯18.90I 5.29%NM 4.93%EV -7.34%E -0.389%K -0.410%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 87.85%EV -8.06%E -7.60%K -134.25%G +0.000%12.90I 7.75%NM 7.22%EV +7.81%E +0.605%K +0.656%G +0.051%7.4%2026-09-30 16:35
SportsBet🎯18.00I 5.56%NM 5.10%EV -11.76%E -0.653%K -0.692%G +0.000%1.04I 96.15%NM 88.33%EV -9.79%E -9.41%K -244.75%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.56%EV +17.00%E +1.21%K +1.31%G +0.222%8.9%2026-09-30 16:40
BetOnline.ag🎯17.30I 5.78%NM 5.23%EV -15.19%E -0.878%K -0.932%G +0.000%1.05I 95.24%NM 86.23%EV -8.92%E -8.50%K -178.45%G +0.000%10.60I 9.43%NM 8.54%EV -11.41%E -1.08%K -1.19%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-30 16:40
Coral🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV -16.66%E -0.980%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 86.30%EV -8.06%E -7.60%K -134.25%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -8.07%E -0.734%K -0.807%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-30 14:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV -16.66%E -0.980%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 86.30%EV -8.06%E -7.60%K -134.25%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -8.07%E -0.734%K -0.807%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-30 14:10
Bovada🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.33%EV -16.66%E -0.980%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.04I 96.15%NM 87.12%EV -9.79%E -9.41%K -244.75%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.55%EV +0.285%E +0.024%K +0.026%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-30 16:40
NetBet (FR)🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.25%EV -16.66%E -0.980%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.03I 97.09%NM 86.64%EV -10.66%E -10.35%K -355.24%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.11%EV -8.07%E -0.734%K -0.807%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-30 16:40
Paddy Power🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.68%EV -21.56%E -1.35%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.04I 96.15%NM 87.34%EV -9.79%E -9.41%K -244.75%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.99%EV +8.64%E +0.665%K +0.720%G +0.062%10.1%2026-09-30 16:40
Pinnacle🎯15.86I 6.31%NM 5.87%EV -22.25%E -1.40%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 85.48%EV -5.45%E -5.00%K -60.59%G +0.000%10.78I 9.28%NM 8.64%EV -9.91%E -0.919%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-30 16:40
Betclic (FR)🎯15.50I 6.45%NM 5.56%EV -24.01%E -1.55%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.04I 96.15%NM 82.94%EV -9.79%E -9.41%K -244.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.50%EV -37.32%E -4.98%K -5.74%G +0.000%15.9%2026-09-30 16:30
BoyleSports🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 5.96%EV -26.46%E -1.76%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.04I 96.15%NM 85.92%EV -9.79%E -9.41%K -244.75%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.12%EV -8.07%E -0.734%K -0.807%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-30 16:35
Unibet (FR)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 6.53%EV -36.27%E -2.79%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.03I 97.09%NM 82.44%EV -10.66%E -10.35%K -355.24%G +0.000%7.70I 12.99%NM 11.03%EV -35.65%E -4.63%K -5.32%G +0.000%17.8%2026-09-30 16:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎28.00I 3.57%NM 3.56%1.09I 91.74%NM 91.34%19.50I 5.13%NM 5.11%0.4%2026-09-30 16:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎26.00I 3.85%NM 3.82%1.09I 91.74%NM 91.09%19.50I 5.13%NM 5.09%0.7%2026-09-30 16:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎26.00I 3.85%NM 3.82%1.09I 91.74%NM 91.09%19.50I 5.13%NM 5.09%0.7%2026-09-30 16:40
Smarkets◎27.03I 3.70%NM 3.64%1.08I 92.59%NM 91.18%19.01I 5.26%NM 5.18%1.6%2026-09-30 16:40