The School of Odds
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Arsenal v HB Køge

Kickoff: 2026-09-22 19:00 UTC

Final: Arsenal 1–0 HB Køge

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arsenal (Local)

Prediction 90.14%1.11fair odd
EV -5.35%
Edge -5.09%
Kelly -106.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
83.22%89.81%90.28%92.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.021.021.0599.01%97.69%98.04%95.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HB Køge (Visit)

Prediction 3.37%29.70fair odd
EV +21.21%
Edge +0.589%
Kelly +0.606%
Growth +0.128%

assuming max odds 36.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.58%3.37%3.39%4.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
17.0028.5626.0036.005.88%3.50%3.85%2.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 6.49%15.41fair odd
EV +16.80%
Edge +0.933%
Kelly +0.988%
Growth +0.166%

assuming max odds 18.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.27%6.82%6.33%11.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.2014.7316.0018.0013.89%6.79%6.25%5.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arsenal (Local): 90.14%; HB Køge (Visit): 3.37%; Draw: 6.49%. For HB Køge (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 29.70. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 36.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +21.21%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -7.15%E -6.94%K -238.37%G +0.000%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.63%EV +21.21%E +0.589%K +0.606%G +0.128%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.27%EV +16.80%E +0.933%K +0.988%G +0.166%5.4%2026-09-22 16:40
Pinnacle🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 91.66%EV -7.15%E -6.94%K -238.37%G +0.000%32.52I 3.08%NM 2.90%EV +9.49%E +0.292%K +0.301%G +0.029%17.37I 5.76%NM 5.44%EV +12.71%E +0.732%K +0.776%G +0.099%5.9%2026-09-22 18:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 91.96%EV -8.95%E -8.87%K -895.40%G +0.000%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.58%EV +21.21%E +0.589%K +0.606%G +0.128%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV +10.31%E +0.606%K +0.644%G +0.066%7.7%2026-09-22 16:40
betPARX🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 91.96%EV -8.95%E -8.87%K -895.40%G +0.000%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.58%EV +21.21%E +0.589%K +0.606%G +0.128%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV +10.31%E +0.606%K +0.644%G +0.066%7.7%2026-09-22 16:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 91.96%EV -8.95%E -8.87%K -895.40%G +0.000%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.58%EV +21.21%E +0.589%K +0.606%G +0.128%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV +10.31%E +0.606%K +0.644%G +0.066%7.7%2026-09-22 16:40
Grosvenor🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 91.96%EV -8.95%E -8.87%K -895.40%G +0.000%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.58%EV +21.21%E +0.589%K +0.606%G +0.128%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV +10.31%E +0.606%K +0.644%G +0.066%7.7%2026-09-22 16:40
Casumo🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 91.96%EV -8.95%E -8.87%K -895.40%G +0.000%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.58%EV +21.21%E +0.589%K +0.606%G +0.128%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV +10.31%E +0.606%K +0.644%G +0.066%7.7%2026-09-22 16:40
SportsBet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 90.97%EV -8.05%E -7.89%K -402.63%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.57%EV -12.46%E -0.479%K -0.498%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV +10.31%E +0.606%K +0.644%G +0.066%7.8%2026-09-22 18:55
DraftKings🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 91.03%EV -6.25%E -6.01%K -156.24%G +0.000%31.00I 3.23%NM 3.05%EV +4.37%E +0.141%K +0.146%G +0.006%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.92%EV +3.82%E +0.239%K +0.255%G +0.010%5.6%2026-09-22 18:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 90.75%EV -8.95%E -8.87%K -895.40%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.53%EV -12.46%E -0.479%K -0.498%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.73%EV +3.82%E +0.239%K +0.255%G +0.010%9.1%2026-09-22 18:45
Paddy Power🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 89.90%EV -8.05%E -7.89%K -402.63%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.99%EV -22.56%E -0.981%K -1.03%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.11%EV -2.67%E -0.178%K -0.191%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-22 18:55
1xBet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 89.52%EV -6.25%E -6.01%K -156.24%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.23%EV -25.93%E -1.18%K -1.23%G +0.000%14.90I 6.71%NM 6.25%EV -3.32%E -0.223%K -0.239%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-22 18:55
BetMGM🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 89.99%EV -5.35%E -5.09%K -106.96%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.26%EV -2.36%E -0.081%K -0.084%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.75%EV -9.16%E -0.654%K -0.705%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-22 18:55
Bovada🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 90.01%EV -8.95%E -8.87%K -895.40%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.50%EV -12.46%E -0.479%K -0.498%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.49%EV -9.16%E -0.654%K -0.705%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-22 18:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 88.81%EV -7.15%E -6.94%K -238.37%G +0.000%25.20I 3.97%NM 3.63%EV -15.16%E -0.601%K -0.626%G +0.000%12.10I 8.26%NM 7.56%EV -21.49%E -1.78%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-22 18:55
Coral🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.35%EV -6.25%E -6.01%K -156.24%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.99%EV -22.56%E -0.981%K -1.03%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.66%EV -22.14%E -1.84%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-22 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.35%EV -6.25%E -6.01%K -156.24%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.99%EV -22.56%E -0.981%K -1.03%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.66%EV -22.14%E -1.84%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-22 18:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 86.61%EV -8.05%E -7.89%K -402.63%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.84%EV -22.56%E -0.981%K -1.03%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 9.55%EV -39.98%E -4.32%K -4.85%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-22 18:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 83.22%EV -8.05%E -7.89%K -402.63%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 4.99%EV -42.76%E -2.52%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 11.79%EV -53.28%E -7.40%K -8.59%G +0.000%17.8%2026-09-22 18:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 93.11%38.00I 2.63%NM 2.60%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.29%1.3%2026-09-22 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 92.99%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.90%24.00I 4.17%NM 4.11%1.4%2026-09-22 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 92.99%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.90%24.00I 4.17%NM 4.11%1.4%2026-09-22 18:55