The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Arsenal v Benfica

Kickoff: 2026-10-28 20:00 UTC

Final: Arsenal 3–0 Benfica

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arsenal (Local)

Prediction 79.54%1.26fair odd
EV -6.14%
Edge -5.20%
Kelly -34.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.82%79.76%79.41%81.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.081.141.151.1892.59%87.72%87.34%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Benfica (Visit)

Prediction 7.68%13.02fair odd
EV +15.17%
Edge +1.01%
Kelly +1.08%
Growth +0.164%

assuming max odds 15.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.09%7.62%7.74%9.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0011.9812.0015.0010.00%8.34%8.33%6.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 12.78%7.83fair odd
EV +11.04%
Edge +1.27%
Kelly +1.44%
Growth +0.159%

assuming max odds 8.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.90%12.61%12.85%13.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.107.117.008.6916.39%14.06%14.29%11.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arsenal (Local): 79.54%; Benfica (Visit): 7.68%; Draw: 12.78%. For Benfica (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.02. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 15.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.17%.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -6.14%E -5.20%K -34.10%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.36%EV +15.17%E +1.01%K +1.08%G +0.164%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.73%EV -4.17%E -0.555%K -0.641%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-28 14:30
betano_uk🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.86%EV -10.12%E -8.95%K -77.81%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.09%EV +15.17%E +1.01%K +1.08%G +0.164%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -10.55%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-28 15:28
Bet Victor🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.86%EV -10.12%E -8.95%K -77.81%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.09%EV +15.17%E +1.01%K +1.08%G +0.164%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -10.55%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-28 15:28
1xBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 81.37%EV -12.50%E -11.36%K -125.01%G +0.000%13.70I 7.30%NM 6.53%EV +5.19%E +0.379%K +0.408%G +0.021%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.10%EV -5.44%E -0.736%K -0.850%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-28 15:30
Pinnacle🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.63%EV -7.73%E -6.66%K -48.31%G +0.000%12.66I 7.90%NM 7.48%EV -2.80%E -0.221%K -0.240%G +0.000%8.69I 11.51%NM 10.90%EV +11.04%E +1.27%K +1.44%G +0.159%5.6%2026-10-28 19:45
SportsBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 80.99%EV -12.50%E -11.36%K -125.01%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.13%EV -4.03%E -0.322%K -0.350%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.88%EV -4.17%E -0.555%K -0.641%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-28 19:45
DraftKings🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -6.93%E -5.93%K -40.78%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.84%EV -7.87%E -0.655%K -0.715%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.76%EV +2.22%E +0.278%K +0.318%G +0.007%6.3%2026-10-28 19:00
Betway🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.23%EV -8.52%E -7.41%K -56.83%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -7.87%E -0.655%K -0.715%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV +8.61%E +1.01%K +1.15%G +0.099%7.1%2026-10-28 15:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.07%EV -6.93%E -5.93%K -40.78%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.71%EV -7.87%E -0.655%K -0.715%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.22%EV -10.55%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-28 13:50
Casumo🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.22%EV -7.73%E -6.66%K -48.31%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.66%EV -7.87%E -0.655%K -0.715%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -10.55%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-28 19:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.22%EV -7.73%E -6.66%K -48.31%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.66%EV -7.87%E -0.655%K -0.715%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -10.55%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-28 19:30
Grosvenor🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.22%EV -7.73%E -6.66%K -48.31%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.66%EV -7.87%E -0.655%K -0.715%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -10.55%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-28 19:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.22%EV -7.73%E -6.66%K -48.31%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.66%EV -7.87%E -0.655%K -0.715%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -10.55%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-28 19:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.22%EV -7.73%E -6.66%K -48.31%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.66%EV -7.87%E -0.655%K -0.715%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -10.55%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-28 19:30
betPARX🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.22%EV -7.73%E -6.66%K -48.31%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.66%EV -7.87%E -0.655%K -0.715%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -10.55%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-28 19:30
William Hill🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.50%EV -9.32%E -8.18%K -66.57%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.55%EV -7.87%E -0.655%K -0.715%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -10.55%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-28 18:05
888sport🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.50%EV -9.32%E -8.18%K -66.57%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.55%EV -7.87%E -0.655%K -0.715%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -10.55%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-28 18:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.50%EV -9.32%E -8.18%K -66.57%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.55%EV -7.87%E -0.655%K -0.715%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -10.55%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-28 18:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.50%EV -9.32%E -8.18%K -66.57%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.55%EV -7.87%E -0.655%K -0.715%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -10.55%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-28 18:05
BoyleSports🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.79%EV -10.91%E -9.74%K -90.92%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.45%EV -7.87%E -0.655%K -0.715%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -10.55%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-28 18:10
Paddy Power🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 80.75%EV -12.50%E -11.36%K -125.01%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.40%EV -7.87%E -0.655%K -0.715%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.84%EV -4.17%E -0.555%K -0.641%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-28 19:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 79.93%EV -11.71%E -10.55%K -106.42%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.39%EV -7.87%E -0.655%K -0.715%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.67%EV -10.55%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-28 19:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 79.93%EV -11.71%E -10.55%K -106.42%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.39%EV -7.87%E -0.655%K -0.715%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.67%EV -10.55%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-28 19:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 80.00%EV -14.09%E -13.05%K -176.15%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.20%EV -7.87%E -0.655%K -0.715%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 12.80%EV -13.75%E -2.04%K -2.39%G +0.000%15.7%2026-10-28 19:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.29%EV -9.32%E -8.18%K -66.57%G +0.000%11.60I 8.62%NM 7.79%EV -10.94%E -0.943%K -1.03%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.91%EV -10.55%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-28 19:45
Betsson🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 78.48%EV -8.52%E -7.41%K -56.83%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.85%EV -11.70%E -1.02%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.67%EV -15.67%E -2.37%K -2.80%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-28 13:49
NordicBet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 78.48%EV -8.52%E -7.41%K -56.83%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.85%EV -11.70%E -1.02%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.67%EV -15.67%E -2.37%K -2.80%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-28 13:49
NetBet (FR)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.88%EV -10.91%E -9.74%K -90.92%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.78%EV -11.70%E -1.02%K -1.11%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.34%EV -7.36%E -1.02%K -1.18%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-28 19:30
Bovada🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.67%EV -7.73%E -6.66%K -48.31%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.30%EV -15.54%E -1.41%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -10.55%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-28 19:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 78.02%EV -10.91%E -9.74%K -90.92%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.32%EV -19.38%E -1.85%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.65%EV -18.22%E -2.85%K -3.37%G +0.000%14.4%2026-10-28 19:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.87%EV -6.93%E -5.93%K -40.78%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.11%EV -23.22%E -2.32%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.02%EV -10.55%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-28 17:35
BetMGM🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.87%EV -6.93%E -5.93%K -40.78%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.11%EV -23.22%E -2.32%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.02%EV -10.55%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-28 17:35
Coral🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.87%EV -6.93%E -5.93%K -40.78%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.11%EV -23.22%E -2.32%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.02%EV -10.55%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-28 17:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 77.82%EV -14.09%E -13.05%K -176.15%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.40%EV -23.22%E -2.32%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 13.78%EV -22.05%E -3.62%K -4.32%G +0.000%19.0%2026-10-28 19:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.18I 84.75%NM 83.83%17.50I 5.71%NM 5.65%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.52%1.1%2026-10-28 19:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.18I 84.75%NM 83.83%17.50I 5.71%NM 5.65%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.52%1.1%2026-10-28 19:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.18I 84.75%NM 83.83%17.50I 5.71%NM 5.65%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.52%1.1%2026-10-28 19:30
Smarkets◎1.17I 85.47%NM 83.62%17.01I 5.88%NM 5.75%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.63%2.2%2026-10-28 19:45