The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Ajax v Real Madrid

Kickoff: 2026-08-26 17:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ajax (Local)

Prediction 14.43%6.93fair odd
EV -7.66%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.81%14.43%14.51%14.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.306.396.4016.67%15.88%15.64%15.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Real Madrid (Visit)

Prediction 66.42%1.51fair odd
EV -7.01%
Edge -5.01%
Kelly -17.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.08%66.42%66.22%67.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.361.361.4076.92%73.66%73.26%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.15%5.22fair odd
EV -7.12%
Edge -1.47%
Kelly -1.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.22%19.15%19.27%19.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.744.804.8522.22%21.10%20.81%20.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ajax (Local): 14.43%; Real Madrid (Visit): 66.42%; Draw: 19.15%. For Real Madrid (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.51. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.40, with an expected value of -7.01%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.14%EV -7.66%E -1.20%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 67.02%EV -10.33%E -7.65%K -29.51%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.85%EV -8.08%E -1.68%K -2.13%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-26 16:24
Betclic (FR)🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 13.81%EV -7.66%E -1.20%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 67.97%EV -13.65%E -10.50%K -45.50%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.22%EV -7.12%E -1.47%K -1.85%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-26 17:06
Pinnacle🎯6.39I 15.65%NM 14.51%EV -7.81%E -1.22%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.22%EV -7.01%E -5.01%K -17.52%G +0.000%4.81I 20.79%NM 19.27%EV -7.89%E -1.64%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-26 17:09
BetOnline.ag🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.97%EV -13.44%E -2.24%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 65.08%EV -8.34%E -6.04%K -21.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.96%EV -13.83%E -3.07%K -3.95%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-26 17:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.