The School of Odds

The New Saints FC v Sabah FK

2026-07-14 17:30 UTC — UEFA Champions League Qualification

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

The New Saints FC (Local)

Prediction 20.53%4.87fair odd
EV +7.80%
Edge +1.49%
Kelly +1.84%
Growth +0.143%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.60%20.53%20.93%21.59%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.254.915.105.2524%20%20%19%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sabah FK (Visit)

Prediction 59.29%1.69fair odd
EV -5.13%
Edge -3.21%
Kelly -8.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.46%59.29%59.35%59.85%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.451.551.561.6069%65%64%63%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 20.17%4.96fair odd
EV -3.17%
Edge -0.660%
Kelly -0.834%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.53%20.17%19.72%22.73%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.854.254.104.8026%24%24%21%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV +7.80%E +1.49%K +1.84%G +0.143%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.61%EV -7.50%E -4.81%K -13.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68%EV -17.29%E -4.22%K -5.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-10 04:50
Unibet (NL)5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV +7.80%E +1.49%K +1.84%G +0.143%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.61%EV -7.50%E -4.81%K -13.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68%EV -17.29%E -4.22%K -5.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-10 04:50
TABtouch5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV +7.80%E +1.49%K +1.84%G +0.143%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.61%EV -7.50%E -4.81%K -13.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68%EV -17.29%E -4.22%K -5.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-10 04:50
Grosvenor5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV +7.80%E +1.49%K +1.84%G +0.143%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.61%EV -7.50%E -4.81%K -13.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68%EV -17.29%E -4.22%K -5.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-10 04:50
LeoVegas (SE)5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV +7.80%E +1.49%K +1.84%G +0.143%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.61%EV -7.50%E -4.81%K -13.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68%EV -17.29%E -4.22%K -5.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-10 04:50
Casumo5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV +7.80%E +1.49%K +1.84%G +0.143%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.61%EV -7.50%E -4.81%K -13.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68%EV -17.29%E -4.22%K -5.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-10 04:49
Unibet (SE)5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV +7.80%E +1.49%K +1.84%G +0.143%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.61%EV -7.50%E -4.81%K -13.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68%EV -17.29%E -4.22%K -5.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-10 04:49
ATG (SE)5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV +7.80%E +1.49%K +1.84%G +0.143%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.61%EV -7.50%E -4.81%K -13.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68%EV -17.29%E -4.22%K -5.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-10 04:49
Svenska Spel5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV +7.80%E +1.49%K +1.84%G +0.143%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.61%EV -7.50%E -4.81%K -13.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68%EV -17.29%E -4.22%K -5.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-10 04:50
betPARX5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV +7.80%E +1.49%K +1.84%G +0.143%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.61%EV -7.50%E -4.81%K -13.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68%EV -17.29%E -4.22%K -5.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-10 04:50
LiveScore Bet5.10I 19.61%NM 17.83%EV +4.72%E +0.925%K +1.15%G +0.054%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.44%EV -9.28%E -6.07%K -17.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -19.31%E -4.83%K -6.44%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-10 04:49
Virgin Bet5.10I 19.61%NM 17.83%EV +4.72%E +0.925%K +1.15%G +0.054%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.44%EV -9.28%E -6.07%K -17.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -19.31%E -4.83%K -6.44%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-10 04:50
PMU (FR)5.00I 20.00%NM 17.60%EV +2.67%E +0.533%K +0.667%G +0.018%1.47I 68.03%NM 59.85%EV -12.84%E -8.73%K -27.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.56%EV -21.33%E -5.47%K -7.35%G +0.000%13.7%2026-07-10 04:49
Unibet (FR)4.75I 21.05%NM 18.15%EV -2.47%E -0.519%K -0.658%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 59.46%EV -14.02%E -9.67%K -31.16%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.39%EV -22.33%E -5.80%K -7.84%G +0.000%16.0%2026-07-10 04:59
LowVig.ag4.70I 21.28%NM 19.51%EV -3.49%E -0.743%K -0.944%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.16%EV -8.09%E -5.22%K -14.72%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.33%EV -13.26%E -3.08%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-10 04:50
BetOnline.ag4.70I 21.28%NM 19.51%EV -3.49%E -0.743%K -0.944%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.16%EV -8.09%E -5.22%K -14.72%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.33%EV -13.26%E -3.08%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-10 04:49
Betr (AU)4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -9.65%E -2.19%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.93%EV -5.13%E -3.21%K -8.55%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.64%EV -3.17%E -0.660%K -0.834%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-10 05:04
Coolbet4.40I 22.73%NM 21.23%EV -9.65%E -2.19%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.11%EV -6.32%E -4.00%K -10.89%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.66%EV -4.18%E -0.880%K -1.11%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-10 05:19
SportsBet4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -9.65%E -2.19%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.45%EV -8.09%E -5.22%K -14.72%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.61%EV -5.19%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-10 05:05
FanDuel4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -9.65%E -2.19%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.61%EV -8.69%E -5.64%K -16.09%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53%EV -5.19%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-10 05:04
Paddy Power4.33I 23.09%NM 20.87%EV -11.09%E -2.56%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.05%EV -9.28%E -6.07%K -17.51%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -9.22%E -2.05%K -2.63%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-10 05:05
Bet Right4.25I 23.53%NM 21.59%EV -12.73%E -3.00%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.46%EV -6.91%E -4.40%K -12.12%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.95%EV -7.20%E -1.57%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-10 05:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is the most recent time we recorded each book's price — on the default model, when it last changed, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.36I 42.37%NM 23.42%1.04I 96.15%NM 53.15%2.36I 42.37%NM 23.42%80.9%2026-07-10 05:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.36I 42.37%NM 23.42%1.04I 96.15%NM 53.15%2.36I 42.37%NM 23.42%80.9%2026-07-10 05:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.36I 42.37%NM 23.42%1.04I 96.15%NM 53.15%2.36I 42.37%NM 23.42%80.9%2026-07-10 05:40