Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

The New Saints FC v Sabah FK

Kickoff: 2026-07-14 17:30 UTC

Final: The New Saints FC 1–2 Sabah FK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

The New Saints FC (Local)

Prediction 18.79%5.32fair odd
EV +1.47%
Edge +0.273%
Kelly +0.335%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 5.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.24%18.66%18.88%20.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.405.105.105.4022.73%19.61%19.61%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sabah FK (Visit)

Prediction 59.83%1.67fair odd
EV -4.27%
Edge -2.67%
Kelly -7.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.36%60.00%59.67%62.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.541.551.6068.97%64.78%64.52%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.38%4.68fair odd
EV -1.66%
Edge -0.362%
Kelly -0.462%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.49%21.34%21.45%22.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.204.104.6025.97%23.80%24.39%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet5.40I 18.52%NM 17.24%EV +1.47%E +0.273%K +0.335%G +0.005%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.06%EV -7.26%E -4.68%K -13.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -12.35%E -3.01%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-14 16:50
Unibet (NL)5.40I 18.52%NM 17.24%EV +1.47%E +0.273%K +0.335%G +0.005%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.06%EV -7.26%E -4.68%K -13.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -12.35%E -3.01%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-14 16:50
TABtouch5.40I 18.52%NM 17.24%EV +1.47%E +0.273%K +0.335%G +0.005%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.06%EV -7.26%E -4.68%K -13.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -12.35%E -3.01%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-14 16:50
Grosvenor5.40I 18.52%NM 17.24%EV +1.47%E +0.273%K +0.335%G +0.005%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.06%EV -7.26%E -4.68%K -13.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -12.35%E -3.01%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-14 16:50
LeoVegas (SE)5.40I 18.52%NM 17.24%EV +1.47%E +0.273%K +0.335%G +0.005%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.06%EV -7.26%E -4.68%K -13.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -12.35%E -3.01%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-14 16:50
Casumo5.40I 18.52%NM 17.24%EV +1.47%E +0.273%K +0.335%G +0.005%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.06%EV -7.26%E -4.68%K -13.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -12.35%E -3.01%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-14 16:50
Unibet (SE)5.40I 18.52%NM 17.24%EV +1.47%E +0.273%K +0.335%G +0.005%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.06%EV -7.26%E -4.68%K -13.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -12.35%E -3.01%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-14 16:50
ATG (SE)5.40I 18.52%NM 17.24%EV +1.47%E +0.273%K +0.335%G +0.005%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.06%EV -7.26%E -4.68%K -13.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -12.35%E -3.01%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-14 16:50
Svenska Spel5.40I 18.52%NM 17.24%EV +1.47%E +0.273%K +0.335%G +0.005%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.06%EV -7.26%E -4.68%K -13.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -12.35%E -3.01%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-14 16:49
betPARX5.40I 18.52%NM 17.24%EV +1.47%E +0.273%K +0.335%G +0.005%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.06%EV -7.26%E -4.68%K -13.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -12.35%E -3.01%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-14 16:50
LiveScore Bet5.20I 19.23%NM 17.48%EV -2.29%E -0.440%K -0.544%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 59.80%EV -9.06%E -5.96%K -17.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.72%EV -14.49%E -3.62%K -4.83%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-14 16:50
Virgin Bet5.20I 19.23%NM 17.48%EV -2.29%E -0.440%K -0.544%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 59.80%EV -9.06%E -5.96%K -17.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.72%EV -14.49%E -3.62%K -4.83%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-14 16:50
Tipico (DE)5.20I 19.23%NM 17.34%EV -2.29%E -0.440%K -0.544%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 62.17%EV -13.24%E -9.13%K -29.43%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.49%EV -5.94%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-14 17:04
LowVig.ag5.10I 19.61%NM 18.19%EV -4.17%E -0.817%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.46%EV -6.66%E -4.27%K -11.90%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.35%EV -11.28%E -2.72%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-14 09:19
BetOnline.ag5.10I 19.61%NM 18.19%EV -4.17%E -0.817%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.46%EV -6.66%E -4.27%K -11.90%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.35%EV -11.28%E -2.72%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-14 09:19
Bovada5.00I 20.00%NM 19.10%EV -6.04%E -1.21%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.68%EV -4.27%E -2.67%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.22%EV -3.80%E -0.845%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-14 17:14
DraftKings5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -6.04%E -1.21%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.55%EV -4.87%E -3.06%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.52%EV -5.94%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-14 17:13
FanDuel5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -6.04%E -1.21%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.00%EV -6.66%E -4.27%K -11.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -5.94%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-14 17:13
PMU (FR)5.00I 20.00%NM 17.54%EV -6.04%E -1.21%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 59.67%EV -12.05%E -8.20%K -25.63%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.78%EV -17.70%E -4.60%K -6.21%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-14 16:50
Marathon Bet4.90I 20.41%NM 19.04%EV -7.92%E -1.62%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.42%EV -6.06%E -3.86%K -10.64%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.54%EV -7.44%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-14 17:14
SportsBet4.90I 20.41%NM 18.79%EV -7.92%E -1.62%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.79%EV -7.86%E -5.10%K -14.55%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.41%EV -8.08%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-14 17:14
Unibet (FR)4.80I 20.83%NM 18.27%EV -9.80%E -2.04%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 60.07%EV -12.65%E -8.66%K -27.49%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.66%EV -13.42%E -3.31%K -4.40%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-14 17:14
Coolbet4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -10.74%E -2.26%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.39%EV -5.47%E -3.46%K -9.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -3.80%E -0.845%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-14 17:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)4.75I 21.05%NM 19.10%EV -10.74%E -2.26%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.30%EV -8.46%E -5.53%K -15.96%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.60%EV -10.21%E -2.43%K -3.19%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-14 17:14
Paddy Power4.75I 21.05%NM 18.88%EV -10.74%E -2.26%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.78%EV -10.25%E -6.84%K -20.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV -10.21%E -2.43%K -3.19%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-14 17:14
Betr (AU)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -13.56%E -2.95%K -3.77%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.27%E -2.67%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -1.66%E -0.362%K -0.462%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-14 17:14
Bet Right4.40I 22.73%NM 20.82%EV -17.32%E -3.94%K -5.09%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -6.06%E -3.86%K -10.64%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.82%EV -5.94%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-14 17:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)5.40I 18.52%NM 18.31%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.66%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.04%1.1%2026-07-14 17:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)5.40I 18.52%NM 18.31%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.66%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.04%1.1%2026-07-14 17:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)5.40I 18.52%NM 18.31%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.66%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.04%1.1%2026-07-14 17:15