The School of Odds
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Sabah FK v The New Saints FC

Kickoff: 2026-07-07 16:00 UTC

Final: Sabah FK 2–0 The New Saints FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sabah FK (Local)

Prediction 80.24%1.25fair odd
EV -1.30%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -5.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.73%80.24%80.24%81.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.181.191.2390.09%84.67%83.68%81.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

The New Saints FC (Visit)

Prediction 6.91%14.48fair odd
EV -3.31%
Edge -0.236%
Kelly -0.254%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 14.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.59%6.91%6.91%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0012.8213.0014.009.09%7.80%7.69%7.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 12.85%7.78fair odd
EV -0.410%
Edge -0.053%
Kelly -0.061%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.23%12.85%12.85%15.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.756.506.407.7517.39%15.38%15.63%12.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sabah FK (Local): 80.24%; The New Saints FC (Visit): 6.91%; Draw: 12.85%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.78. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 7.75, with an expected value of -0.410%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betr (AU)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.72%EV -1.30%E -1.06%K -5.66%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.55%EV -13.67%E -1.09%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -22.90%E -3.82%K -4.58%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-07 15:40
Bet Right🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.73%EV -2.91%E -2.40%K -13.84%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -24.03%E -2.18%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.94%EV -26.11%E -4.54%K -5.50%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-07 15:40
Unibet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.14%EV -3.71%E -3.09%K -18.54%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -10.21%E -0.786%K -0.851%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.65%EV -17.76%E -2.77%K -3.29%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-07 15:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.14%EV -3.71%E -3.09%K -18.54%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -10.21%E -0.786%K -0.851%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.65%EV -17.76%E -2.77%K -3.29%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-07 15:45
Casumo🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.14%EV -3.71%E -3.09%K -18.54%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -10.21%E -0.786%K -0.851%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.65%EV -17.76%E -2.77%K -3.29%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-07 15:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.14%EV -3.71%E -3.09%K -18.54%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -10.21%E -0.786%K -0.851%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.65%EV -17.76%E -2.77%K -3.29%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-07 15:45
Grosvenor🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.14%EV -3.71%E -3.09%K -18.54%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -10.21%E -0.786%K -0.851%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.65%EV -17.76%E -2.77%K -3.29%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-07 15:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.14%EV -3.71%E -3.09%K -18.54%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -10.21%E -0.786%K -0.851%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.65%EV -17.76%E -2.77%K -3.29%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-07 15:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.14%EV -3.71%E -3.09%K -18.54%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -10.21%E -0.786%K -0.851%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.65%EV -17.76%E -2.77%K -3.29%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-07 15:45
betPARX🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.14%EV -3.71%E -3.09%K -18.54%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -10.21%E -0.786%K -0.851%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.65%EV -17.76%E -2.77%K -3.29%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-07 15:45
TABtouch🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.28%EV -4.51%E -3.79%K -23.74%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.17%EV -10.21%E -0.786%K -0.851%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV -17.76%E -2.77%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-07 15:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.28%EV -4.51%E -3.79%K -23.74%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.17%EV -10.21%E -0.786%K -0.851%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV -17.76%E -2.77%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-07 15:45
Bovada🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.00%EV -6.12%E -5.23%K -35.97%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.77%EV -3.31%E -0.236%K -0.254%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.23%EV -0.410%E -0.053%K -0.061%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-07 15:35
DraftKings🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.26%EV -6.12%E -5.23%K -35.97%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.22%EV -10.21%E -0.786%K -0.851%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -3.62%E -0.483%K -0.557%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-07 15:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.80%EV -6.12%E -5.23%K -35.97%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.28%EV -13.67%E -1.09%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.92%EV -21.61%E -3.54%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-07 15:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.80%EV -6.12%E -5.23%K -35.97%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.28%EV -13.67%E -1.09%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.92%EV -21.61%E -3.54%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-07 15:45
FanDuel🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.23%EV -7.72%E -6.71%K -51.47%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.59%EV -3.31%E -0.236%K -0.254%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.18%EV -10.05%E -1.44%K -1.67%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-07 15:15
SportsBet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.96%EV -8.52%E -7.48%K -60.88%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.01%EV -10.21%E -0.786%K -0.851%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.02%EV -10.05%E -1.44%K -1.67%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-07 15:15
Paddy Power🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.01%EV -10.13%E -9.04%K -84.40%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.37%EV -17.12%E -1.43%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.61%EV -16.47%E -2.53%K -3.00%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-07 15:04
Unibet (FR)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 78.82%EV -10.93%E -9.85%K -99.37%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.29%EV -17.12%E -1.43%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 13.89%EV -19.04%E -3.02%K -3.59%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-07 15:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.21I 82.64%NM 82.29%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.86%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.85%0.4%2026-07-07 15:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.21I 82.64%NM 82.14%16.50I 6.06%NM 6.02%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.83%0.6%2026-07-07 15:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.21I 82.64%NM 82.14%16.50I 6.06%NM 6.02%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.83%0.6%2026-07-07 15:55