The School of Odds
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Sabah FK v KuPS Kuopio

Kickoff: 2026-07-21 16:00 UTC

Final: Sabah FK 1–0 KuPS Kuopio

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sabah FK (Local)

Prediction 66.40%1.51fair odd
EV -1.72%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -3.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.26%66.34%66.45%67.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.421.431.4875.19%70.55%69.93%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

KuPS Kuopio (Visit)

Prediction 13.99%7.15fair odd
EV +4.92%
Edge +0.656%
Kelly +0.757%
Growth +0.037%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.57%14.13%14.01%17.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.106.066.207.5019.61%16.50%16.13%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.61%5.10fair odd
EV -1.96%
Edge -0.392%
Kelly -0.489%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.83%19.54%19.54%20.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.714.755.0022.73%21.25%21.05%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sabah FK (Local): 66.40%; KuPS Kuopio (Visit): 13.99%; Draw: 19.61%. For KuPS Kuopio (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.15. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.92%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Betr (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.36%EV -7.04%E -5.03%K -17.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.57%EV +4.92%E +0.656%K +0.757%G +0.037%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.06%EV -7.84%E -1.67%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-21 15:45
DraftKings🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.72%EV -7.70%E -5.54%K -19.75%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV -2.08%E -0.297%K -0.346%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -1.96%E -0.392%K -0.489%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-21 15:45
FanDuel🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -7.04%E -5.03%K -17.59%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -2.08%E -0.297%K -0.346%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -7.84%E -1.67%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-21 15:35
Bet Right🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.50%EV -8.36%E -6.06%K -22.01%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.11%EV -2.08%E -0.297%K -0.346%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.39%EV -11.76%E -2.61%K -3.36%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-21 15:45
Bovada🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.50%EV -5.04%E -3.53%K -11.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.09%EV -5.57%E -0.826%K -0.969%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -3.92%E -0.800%K -1.00%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-21 15:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.71%EV -7.04%E -5.03%K -17.59%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.84%EV -5.57%E -0.826%K -0.969%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -5.88%E -1.22%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-21 15:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.71%EV -7.04%E -5.03%K -17.59%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.84%EV -5.57%E -0.826%K -0.969%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -5.88%E -1.22%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-21 15:45
SportsBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.47%EV -8.36%E -6.06%K -22.01%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.59%EV -5.57%E -0.826%K -0.969%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV -9.80%E -2.13%K -2.72%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-21 15:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -7.04%E -5.03%K -17.59%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -9.07%E -1.40%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -9.80%E -2.13%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-21 15:35
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.16%EV -9.69%E -7.13%K -26.92%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -9.07%E -1.40%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -11.76%E -2.61%K -3.36%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-21 15:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.36%EV -11.68%E -8.79%K -35.41%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.58%EV -9.07%E -1.40%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.06%EV -13.72%E -3.12%K -4.04%G +0.000%13.3%2026-07-21 15:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.12%EV -6.37%E -4.52%K -15.54%G +0.000%6.45I 15.50%NM 14.45%EV -9.77%E -1.51%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.42%EV -5.88%E -1.22%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-21 15:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.04%EV -10.36%E -7.67%K -29.59%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.93%EV -10.47%E -1.64%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.03%EV -12.74%E -2.86%K -3.69%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-21 15:45
Coolbet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.90%EV -1.72%E -1.17%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.49%EV -13.27%E -2.14%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.60%EV -3.92%E -0.800%K -1.00%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-21 15:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.54%EV -3.72%E -2.56%K -8.26%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.06%EV -24.46%E -4.53%K -5.56%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.40%EV -6.86%E -1.44%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-21 15:40
TABtouch🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.54%EV -3.72%E -2.56%K -8.26%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.06%EV -24.46%E -4.53%K -5.56%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.40%EV -6.86%E -1.44%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-21 15:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.54%EV -3.72%E -2.56%K -8.26%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.06%EV -24.46%E -4.53%K -5.56%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.40%EV -6.86%E -1.44%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-21 15:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.54%EV -3.72%E -2.56%K -8.26%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.06%EV -24.46%E -4.53%K -5.56%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.40%EV -6.86%E -1.44%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-21 15:40
Casumo🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.54%EV -3.72%E -2.56%K -8.26%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.06%EV -24.46%E -4.53%K -5.56%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.40%EV -6.86%E -1.44%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-21 15:40
Grosvenor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.54%EV -3.72%E -2.56%K -8.26%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.06%EV -24.46%E -4.53%K -5.56%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.40%EV -6.86%E -1.44%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-21 15:40
Unibet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.54%EV -3.72%E -2.56%K -8.26%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.06%EV -24.46%E -4.53%K -5.56%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.40%EV -6.86%E -1.44%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-21 15:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.54%EV -3.72%E -2.56%K -8.26%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.06%EV -24.46%E -4.53%K -5.56%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.40%EV -6.86%E -1.44%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-21 15:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.54%EV -3.72%E -2.56%K -8.26%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.06%EV -24.46%E -4.53%K -5.56%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.40%EV -6.86%E -1.44%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-21 15:40
betPARX🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.54%EV -3.72%E -2.56%K -8.26%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.06%EV -24.46%E -4.53%K -5.56%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.40%EV -6.86%E -1.44%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-21 15:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.26%EV -4.38%E -3.04%K -9.96%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.35%EV -26.56%E -5.06%K -6.25%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.38%EV -7.84%E -1.67%K -2.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-21 15:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.26%EV -4.38%E -3.04%K -9.96%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.35%EV -26.56%E -5.06%K -6.25%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.38%EV -7.84%E -1.67%K -2.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-21 15:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 63.40%EV -8.36%E -6.06%K -22.01%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.16%EV -28.66%E -5.62%K -6.99%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.44%EV -11.76%E -2.61%K -3.36%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-21 15:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 68.08%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.43%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.49%0.6%2026-07-21 15:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 68.08%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.43%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.49%0.6%2026-07-21 15:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 67.87%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.70%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43%0.9%2026-07-21 15:45