The School of Odds

Sabah FK v KuPS Kuopio

2026-07-21 16:00 UTC — UEFA Champions League Qualification

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Sabah FK (Local)

Prediction 53.97%1.85fair odd
EV -3.93%
Edge -2.21%
Kelly -5.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.43%53.97%53.26%56.22%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.661.731.731.7860%58%58%56%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

KuPS Kuopio (Visit)

Prediction 22.55%4.43fair odd
EV -2.35%
Edge -0.543%
Kelly -0.706%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.55%22.55%22.77%23.33%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.954.054.004.3325%25%25%23%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 23.48%4.26fair odd
EV -1.40%
Edge -0.333%
Kelly -0.437%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.22%23.48%23.97%24.24%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.803.883.804.2026%26%26%24%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 50.51%EV -2.85%E -1.58%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -15.43%E -4.11%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -15.48%E -4.30%K -5.96%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-17 15:44
Betr (AU)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.89%EV -3.93%E -2.21%K -5.04%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -7.54%E -1.84%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -8.44%E -2.16%K -2.91%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-17 20:04
Coolbet1.78I 56.18%NM 52.43%EV -3.93%E -2.21%K -5.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -9.79%E -2.45%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.24%EV -9.62%E -2.50%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-17 20:04
Bet Right1.74I 57.47%NM 52.68%EV -6.09%E -3.50%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.20%EV -10.92%E -2.76%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -10.79%E -2.84%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-17 20:05
SportsBet1.73I 57.80%NM 52.97%EV -6.63%E -3.83%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -9.79%E -2.45%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -10.79%E -2.84%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-17 18:44
FanDuel1.71I 58.48%NM 53.26%EV -7.71%E -4.51%K -10.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.77%EV -9.79%E -2.45%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -10.79%E -2.84%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-17 18:49
Paddy Power1.70I 58.82%NM 53.41%EV -8.25%E -4.85%K -11.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -9.79%E -2.45%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.89%EV -10.79%E -2.84%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-17 20:04
Marathon Bet1.66I 60.24%NM 56.22%EV -10.41%E -6.27%K -15.77%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.55%EV -2.35%E -0.543%K -0.706%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -1.40%E -0.333%K -0.437%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-17 20:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.61I 62.11%NM 59.47%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.77%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.76%4.4%2026-07-17 20:04
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.61I 62.11%NM 59.47%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.77%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.76%4.4%2026-07-17 20:04
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.61I 62.11%NM 59.47%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.77%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.76%4.4%2026-07-17 20:10