The School of Odds
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NEC Nijmegen v Bodø/Glimt

Kickoff: 2026-08-19 19:00 UTC

Final: NEC Nijmegen 1–3 Bodø/Glimt

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

NEC Nijmegen (Local)

Prediction 33.44%2.99fair odd
EV -3.04%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -1.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.31%33.45%33.39%36.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.742.732.9038.46%36.51%36.70%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bodø/Glimt (Visit)

Prediction 41.61%2.40fair odd
EV -0.136%
Edge -0.057%
Kelly -0.097%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.14%41.53%41.59%42.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.262.282.4047.62%44.20%43.86%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.95%4.01fair odd
EV -2.68%
Edge -0.687%
Kelly -0.923%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.37%25.03%25.02%26.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.663.653.9028.57%27.32%27.40%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: NEC Nijmegen (Local): 33.44%; Bodø/Glimt (Visit): 41.61%; Draw: 24.95%. For Bodø/Glimt (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.403. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.400, with an expected value of -0.136%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.16%EV -3.04%E -1.05%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.80%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.04%EV -4.17%E -1.09%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-19 18:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.93%EV -4.71%E -1.65%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.63%EV -0.968%E -0.407%K -0.701%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.45%EV -5.17%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-19 18:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.93%EV -4.71%E -1.65%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.63%EV -0.968%E -0.407%K -0.701%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.45%EV -5.17%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-19 18:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -4.71%E -1.65%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.54%EV -8.46%E -3.84%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -5.17%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-19 18:40
FanDuel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -4.71%E -1.65%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -8.46%E -3.84%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -7.67%E -2.07%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-19 18:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 33.53%EV -5.04%E -1.78%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.41%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.06%EV -5.17%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-19 18:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 33.53%EV -5.04%E -1.78%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.41%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.06%EV -5.17%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-19 18:15
BetUS🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 33.74%EV -5.38%E -1.90%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.52%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.74%EV -3.68%E -0.952%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-19 18:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -6.38%E -2.28%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.38%E -2.83%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -7.67%E -2.07%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-19 18:55
SportsBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.66%EV -6.38%E -2.28%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.94%EV -9.29%E -4.26%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -10.16%E -2.82%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-19 18:55
DraftKings🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.36%EV -8.05%E -2.93%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.09%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.55%EV -3.93%E -1.02%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 18:50
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.03%EV -8.05%E -2.93%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.68%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.67%E -2.07%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-19 18:30
betPARX🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.03%EV -8.05%E -2.93%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.68%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.67%E -2.07%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-19 18:29
PlayUp🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.94%EV -8.05%E -2.93%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%EV -8.46%E -3.84%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -12.66%E -3.62%K -5.06%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-19 18:50
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.31%EV -8.05%E -2.93%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.31%EV -12.62%E -6.01%K -11.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.38%EV -12.66%E -3.62%K -5.06%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-19 18:55
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.20%EV -9.72%E -3.60%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.44%EV -2.22%E -0.943%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.37%EV -2.68%E -0.687%K -0.923%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-19 18:48
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -9.72%E -3.60%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.50%EV -5.13%E -2.25%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.30%EV -8.92%E -2.44%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-19 18:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -9.72%E -3.60%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.50%EV -5.13%E -2.25%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.30%EV -8.92%E -2.44%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-19 18:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -9.72%E -3.60%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.50%EV -5.13%E -2.25%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.30%EV -8.92%E -2.44%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-19 18:20
888sport🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -9.72%E -3.60%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -12.66%E -3.62%K -5.06%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-19 18:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -9.72%E -3.60%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -12.66%E -3.62%K -5.06%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-19 18:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -9.72%E -3.60%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -12.66%E -3.62%K -5.06%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-19 18:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.71%EV -9.72%E -3.60%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -12.62%E -6.01%K -11.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -12.66%E -3.62%K -5.06%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-19 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.20%EV -11.40%E -4.30%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.28%EV -6.38%E -2.83%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.53%EV -11.41%E -3.21%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-19 18:45
TABtouch🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.20%EV -11.40%E -4.30%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.28%EV -6.38%E -2.83%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.53%EV -11.41%E -3.21%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-19 18:45
Grosvenor🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.95%EV -11.40%E -4.30%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.34%EV -7.21%E -3.23%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.71%EV -12.66%E -3.62%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-19 18:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.12%EV -12.06%E -4.59%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.24%EV -7.21%E -3.23%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%EV -12.66%E -3.62%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-19 18:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.12%EV -12.06%E -4.59%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.24%EV -7.21%E -3.23%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%EV -12.66%E -3.62%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-19 18:45
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.13%EV -13.07%E -5.03%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -0.136%E -0.057%K -0.097%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -5.17%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-19 16:15
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.78%EV -13.07%E -5.03%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.82%EV -12.62%E -6.01%K -11.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.40%EV -10.16%E -2.82%K -3.91%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-19 18:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.73%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.31%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.96%0.2%2026-08-19 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.73%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.31%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.96%0.2%2026-08-19 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 32.05%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.47%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.48%0.6%2026-08-19 18:55