The School of Odds

Mjällby AIF v Lincoln Red Imps FC

2026-07-21 16:00 UTC — UEFA Champions League Qualification

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Mjällby AIF (Local)

Prediction 79.48%1.26fair odd
EV -5.41%
Edge -4.55%
Kelly -28.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.84%79.24%79.41%80.66%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.131.171.171.1988%86%85%84%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Lincoln Red Imps FC (Visit)

Prediction 6.82%14.67fair odd
EV +12.45%
Edge +0.755%
Kelly +0.803%
Growth +0.100%

assuming max odds 16.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.66%6.85%6.84%8.27%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
11.0013.6413.0016.509%7%8%6%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 13.70%7.30fair odd
EV -0.677%
Edge -0.093%
Kelly -0.108%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.98%13.91%13.75%16.63%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
5.506.616.507.2518%15%15%14%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
NordicBet1.19I 84.03%NM 78.50%EV -5.41%E -4.55%K -28.49%G +0.000%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.66%EV +12.45%E +0.755%K +0.803%G +0.100%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.83%EV -19.17%E -3.25%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-18 09:00
Betsson1.19I 84.03%NM 78.50%EV -5.41%E -4.55%K -28.49%G +0.000%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.66%EV +12.45%E +0.755%K +0.803%G +0.100%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.83%EV -19.17%E -3.25%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-18 09:00
Marathon Bet1.16I 86.21%NM 80.66%EV -7.80%E -6.72%K -48.73%G +0.000%14.75I 6.78%NM 6.34%EV +0.525%E +0.036%K +0.038%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.00%EV -1.36%E -0.189%K -0.220%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-18 04:55
1xBet1.17I 85.47%NM 80.33%EV -7.00%E -5.99%K -41.19%G +0.000%14.20I 7.04%NM 6.62%EV -3.22%E -0.227%K -0.244%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.05%EV -1.36%E -0.189%K -0.220%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-18 04:55
Betr (AU)1.18I 84.75%NM 79.82%EV -6.21%E -5.26%K -34.49%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -4.59%E -0.328%K -0.353%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV -4.10%E -0.586%K -0.684%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-18 04:55
SportsBet1.15I 86.96%NM 80.23%EV -8.59%E -7.47%K -57.28%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.59%EV -4.59%E -0.328%K -0.353%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.18%EV -4.10%E -0.586%K -0.684%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-18 04:55
FanDuel1.14I 87.72%NM 80.37%EV -9.39%E -8.23%K -67.05%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.54%EV -4.59%E -0.328%K -0.353%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.09%EV -4.10%E -0.586%K -0.684%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-18 04:53
PlayUp1.19I 84.03%NM 76.84%EV -5.41%E -4.55%K -28.49%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.53%EV -4.59%E -0.328%K -0.353%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.63%EV -24.65%E -4.48%K -5.48%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-18 04:54
Bovada1.18I 84.75%NM 79.77%EV -6.21%E -5.26%K -34.49%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.24%EV -11.40%E -0.877%K -0.950%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.98%EV -0.677%E -0.093%K -0.108%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-18 07:43
Coolbet1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -6.21%E -5.26%K -34.49%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -11.40%E -0.877%K -0.950%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -4.10%E -0.586%K -0.684%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-18 04:55
888sport1.17I 85.47%NM 78.74%EV -7.00%E -5.99%K -41.19%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.09%EV -11.40%E -0.877%K -0.950%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -10.95%E -1.68%K -1.99%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-18 04:55
888sport (SE)1.17I 85.47%NM 78.74%EV -7.00%E -5.99%K -41.19%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.09%EV -11.40%E -0.877%K -0.950%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -10.95%E -1.68%K -1.99%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-18 04:55
Mr Green (SE)1.17I 85.47%NM 78.74%EV -7.00%E -5.99%K -41.19%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.09%EV -11.40%E -0.877%K -0.950%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -10.95%E -1.68%K -1.99%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-18 04:55
Paddy Power1.14I 87.72%NM 79.17%EV -9.39%E -8.23%K -67.05%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.94%EV -11.40%E -0.877%K -0.950%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -10.95%E -1.68%K -1.99%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-18 04:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.13I 88.50%NM 79.32%EV -10.18%E -9.01%K -78.32%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.89%EV -11.40%E -0.877%K -0.950%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.79%EV -10.95%E -1.68%K -1.99%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-18 04:55
Bet Right1.17I 85.47%NM 78.28%EV -7.00%E -5.99%K -41.19%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.63%EV -18.22%E -1.52%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.09%EV -10.95%E -1.68%K -1.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-18 04:55
BoyleSports1.17I 85.47%NM 77.74%EV -7.00%E -5.99%K -41.19%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.27%EV -25.03%E -2.28%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV -10.95%E -1.68%K -1.99%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-18 07:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-18 04:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-18 04:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-18 04:55