The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Mjällby AIF v Lincoln Red Imps FC

Kickoff: 2026-07-21 16:00 UTC

Final: Mjällby AIF 3–0 Lincoln Red Imps FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mjällby AIF (Local)

Prediction 83.05%1.20fair odd
EV -4.50%
Edge -3.91%
Kelly -29.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.25%82.73%83.20%84.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.081.121.121.1592.59%89.29%89.29%86.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lincoln Red Imps FC (Visit)

Prediction 5.20%19.23fair odd
EV +3.99%
Edge +0.200%
Kelly +0.210%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 20.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.66%5.33%5.20%6.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
13.0017.3418.0020.007.69%5.77%5.56%5.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.75%8.51fair odd
EV +5.79%
Edge +0.643%
Kelly +0.723%
Growth +0.042%

assuming max odds 9.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.41%11.93%11.60%13.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.758.188.289.0014.81%12.23%12.08%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mjällby AIF (Local): 83.05%; Lincoln Red Imps FC (Visit): 5.20%; Draw: 11.75%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.51. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.79%.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.99%E -6.24%K -58.23%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.24%EV -6.41%E -0.356%K -0.377%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.49%EV +5.79%E +0.643%K +0.723%G +0.042%6.0%2026-07-21 15:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.99%E -6.24%K -58.23%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.24%EV -6.41%E -0.356%K -0.377%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.49%EV +5.79%E +0.643%K +0.723%G +0.042%6.0%2026-07-21 15:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.99%E -6.24%K -58.23%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.24%EV -6.41%E -0.356%K -0.377%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.49%EV +5.79%E +0.643%K +0.723%G +0.042%6.0%2026-07-21 15:45
Unibet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.99%E -6.24%K -58.23%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.24%EV -6.41%E -0.356%K -0.377%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.49%EV +5.79%E +0.643%K +0.723%G +0.042%6.0%2026-07-21 15:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.99%E -6.24%K -58.23%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.24%EV -6.41%E -0.356%K -0.377%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.49%EV +5.79%E +0.643%K +0.723%G +0.042%6.0%2026-07-21 15:45
Casumo🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -7.82%E -7.04%K -71.08%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.20%EV -6.41%E -0.356%K -0.377%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.41%EV +5.79%E +0.643%K +0.723%G +0.042%6.8%2026-07-21 15:45
betPARX🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -7.82%E -7.04%K -71.08%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.20%EV -6.41%E -0.356%K -0.377%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.41%EV +5.79%E +0.643%K +0.723%G +0.042%6.8%2026-07-21 15:45
DraftKings🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.63%EV -6.16%E -5.45%K -47.37%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV -6.41%E -0.356%K -0.377%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.12%EV -0.091%E -0.011%K -0.012%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-21 15:40
FanDuel🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.87%EV -7.82%E -7.04%K -71.08%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.17%EV -6.41%E -0.356%K -0.377%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV -0.091%E -0.011%K -0.012%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-21 13:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.00%EV -8.65%E -7.86%K -86.49%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.13%EV -6.41%E -0.356%K -0.377%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.87%EV -0.091%E -0.011%K -0.012%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-21 15:45
Grosvenor🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.00%EV -8.65%E -7.86%K -86.49%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.13%EV -6.41%E -0.356%K -0.377%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.87%EV -0.091%E -0.011%K -0.012%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-21 15:45
TABtouch🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.00%EV -8.65%E -7.86%K -86.49%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.13%EV -6.41%E -0.356%K -0.377%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.87%EV -0.091%E -0.011%K -0.012%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-21 15:45
SportsBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.46%EV -8.65%E -7.86%K -86.49%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.74%EV -16.81%E -1.05%K -1.12%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.80%EV -0.091%E -0.011%K -0.012%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-21 13:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.24%EV -10.31%E -9.55%K -128.87%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.05%EV -6.41%E -0.356%K -0.377%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -0.091%E -0.011%K -0.012%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-21 15:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.24%EV -10.31%E -9.55%K -128.87%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.05%EV -6.41%E -0.356%K -0.377%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -0.091%E -0.011%K -0.012%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-21 15:10
1xBet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.96%EV -6.16%E -5.45%K -47.37%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.74%EV +3.99%E +0.200%K +0.210%G +0.008%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.29%EV -1.27%E -0.151%K -0.171%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-21 15:40
Coolbet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 83.40%EV -4.50%E -3.91%K -29.98%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV -1.21%E -0.064%K -0.067%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 11.56%EV -2.44%E -0.294%K -0.334%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-21 15:20
Bovada🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.85%EV -4.50%E -3.91%K -29.98%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.60%EV -11.61%E -0.683%K -0.725%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.55%EV -3.03%E -0.367%K -0.418%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-21 15:45
BetUS🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.35%EV -6.99%E -6.24%K -58.23%G +0.000%17.50I 5.71%NM 5.33%EV -9.01%E -0.515%K -0.546%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.32%EV -3.03%E -0.367%K -0.418%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-21 15:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.35%EV -6.99%E -6.24%K -58.23%G +0.000%17.50I 5.71%NM 5.33%EV -9.01%E -0.515%K -0.546%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.32%EV -3.03%E -0.367%K -0.418%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-21 15:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.35%EV -6.99%E -6.24%K -58.23%G +0.000%17.50I 5.71%NM 5.33%EV -9.01%E -0.515%K -0.546%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.32%EV -3.03%E -0.367%K -0.418%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-21 15:30
Neds🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.94%EV -4.50%E -3.91%K -29.98%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV -22.01%E -1.47%K -1.57%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -5.97%E -0.746%K -0.853%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-21 15:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.51%EV -6.99%E -6.24%K -58.23%G +0.000%19.50I 5.13%NM 4.80%EV +1.39%E +0.071%K +0.075%G +0.001%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -5.97%E -0.746%K -0.853%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-21 15:45
Paddy Power🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 82.85%EV -10.31%E -9.55%K -128.87%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.97%EV -22.01%E -1.47%K -1.57%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.18%EV -5.97%E -0.746%K -0.853%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-21 13:28
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 82.50%EV -10.31%E -9.55%K -128.87%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.36%EV -27.21%E -1.94%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.14%EV -5.97%E -0.746%K -0.853%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-21 15:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.95%EV -4.50%E -3.91%K -29.98%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.89%EV -16.81%E -1.05%K -1.12%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.16%EV -8.91%E -1.15%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-21 15:45
888sport🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.03%EV -5.33%E -4.67%K -38.05%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -11.61%E -0.683%K -0.725%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -11.84%E -1.58%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-21 15:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.03%EV -5.33%E -4.67%K -38.05%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -11.61%E -0.683%K -0.725%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -11.84%E -1.58%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-21 15:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.03%EV -5.33%E -4.67%K -38.05%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -11.61%E -0.683%K -0.725%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -11.84%E -1.58%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-21 15:35
NordicBet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.26%EV -5.33%E -4.67%K -38.05%G +0.000%18.50I 5.41%NM 5.07%EV -3.81%E -0.206%K -0.218%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.67%EV -13.02%E -1.76%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-21 15:45
Bet Right🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.37%EV -5.33%E -4.67%K -38.05%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.54%EV -27.21%E -1.94%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.09%EV -17.72%E -2.53%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-21 15:45
BoyleSports🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.25%EV -6.99%E -6.24%K -58.23%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.91%EV -32.41%E -2.49%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.84%EV -17.72%E -2.53%K -2.95%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-21 04:15
Betsson🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.82%EV -5.33%E -4.67%K -38.05%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.66%EV +3.99%E +0.200%K +0.210%G +0.008%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.52%EV -18.90%E -2.74%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-21 15:40
PlayUp🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 81.05%EV -6.16%E -5.45%K -47.37%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.39%EV -11.61%E -0.683%K -0.725%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.57%EV -20.66%E -3.06%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-21 15:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.16I 86.21%NM 85.71%24.00I 4.17%NM 4.14%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.15%0.6%2026-07-21 15:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.16I 86.21%NM 85.71%24.00I 4.17%NM 4.14%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.15%0.6%2026-07-21 15:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.16I 86.21%NM 85.56%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.32%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.13%0.8%2026-07-21 14:55