The School of Odds

Larne FC v Tre Fiori F.C.

2026-07-14 19:00 UTC — UEFA Champions League Qualification

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Larne FC (Local)

Prediction 77.94%1.28fair odd
EV -4.13%
Edge -3.36%
Kelly -17.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.73%78.09%78.04%79.87%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.131.181.181.2388%84%85%81%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Tre Fiori F.C. (Visit)

Prediction 7.01%14.27fair odd
EV +20.88%
Edge +1.21%
Kelly +1.29%
Growth +0.268%

assuming max odds 17.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.42%6.97%6.93%8.98%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
10.0012.8812.5017.2510%8%8%6%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 15.05%6.64fair odd
EV +2.33%
Edge +0.343%
Kelly +0.403%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 6.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.26%14.93%15.03%16.63%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
5.506.036.006.8018%17%17%15%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet1.17I 85.47%NM 79.87%EV -8.81%E -7.53%K -51.80%G +0.000%17.25I 5.80%NM 5.42%EV +20.88%E +1.21%K +1.29%G +0.268%6.35I 15.75%NM 14.72%EV -4.44%E -0.699%K -0.829%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-10 17:05
Neds1.17I 85.47%NM 80.23%EV -8.81%E -7.53%K -51.80%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.87%EV +12.12%E +0.758%K +0.808%G +0.098%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.91%EV +1.58%E +0.234%K +0.275%G +0.004%6.5%2026-07-10 14:45
888sport1.18I 84.75%NM 78.41%EV -8.03%E -6.80%K -44.60%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.17%EV +5.12%E +0.341%K +0.365%G +0.019%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -9.70%E -1.62%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-10 15:29
Mr Green (SE)1.18I 84.75%NM 78.41%EV -8.03%E -6.80%K -44.60%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.17%EV +5.12%E +0.341%K +0.365%G +0.019%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -9.70%E -1.62%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-10 15:30
888sport (SE)1.18I 84.75%NM 78.41%EV -8.03%E -6.80%K -44.60%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.17%EV +5.12%E +0.341%K +0.365%G +0.019%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -9.70%E -1.62%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-10 15:29
NordicBet1.19I 84.03%NM 77.90%EV -7.25%E -6.09%K -38.15%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.39%EV +1.61%E +0.111%K +0.119%G +0.002%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.71%EV -11.21%E -1.90%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-10 18:54
Betsson1.19I 84.03%NM 77.90%EV -7.25%E -6.09%K -38.15%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.39%EV +1.61%E +0.111%K +0.119%G +0.002%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.71%EV -11.21%E -1.90%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-10 18:55
PlayUp1.19I 84.03%NM 76.84%EV -7.25%E -6.09%K -38.15%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.53%EV -1.89%E -0.135%K -0.146%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.63%EV -17.23%E -3.13%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-10 18:54
Tipico (DE)1.13I 88.50%NM 79.80%EV -11.92%E -10.55%K -91.73%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.94%EV -8.90%E -0.685%K -0.742%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.26%EV +2.33%E +0.343%K +0.403%G +0.009%10.9%2026-07-10 15:34
BoyleSports1.15I 86.96%NM 78.12%EV -10.37%E -9.01%K -69.10%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.91%EV -8.90%E -0.685%K -0.742%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.97%EV -9.70%E -1.62%K -1.94%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-10 18:24
Betr (AU)1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -4.13%E -3.36%K -17.96%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.84%EV -15.91%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.68%EV -9.70%E -1.62%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-10 18:45
Coolbet1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.91%E -4.02%K -22.32%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -15.91%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -9.70%E -1.62%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-10 15:38
BetOnline.ag1.18I 84.75%NM 77.34%EV -8.03%E -6.80%K -44.60%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.94%EV -19.41%E -1.69%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.72%EV -6.69%E -1.08%K -1.29%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-10 15:30
LowVig.ag1.18I 84.75%NM 77.34%EV -8.03%E -6.80%K -44.60%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.94%EV -19.41%E -1.69%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.72%EV -6.69%E -1.08%K -1.29%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-10 15:24
Bet Right1.21I 82.64%NM 75.73%EV -5.69%E -4.70%K -27.09%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -22.92%E -2.08%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.94%EV -13.47%E -2.34%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-10 15:39
SportsBet1.19I 84.03%NM 76.54%EV -7.25%E -6.09%K -38.15%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.28%EV -22.92%E -2.08%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -9.70%E -1.62%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-10 14:55
FanDuel1.18I 84.75%NM 76.69%EV -8.03%E -6.80%K -44.60%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.23%EV -22.92%E -2.08%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.08%EV -9.70%E -1.62%K -1.94%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-10 14:52
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.18I 84.75%NM 76.39%EV -8.03%E -6.80%K -44.60%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.58%EV -26.42%E -2.52%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.02%EV -9.70%E -1.62%K -1.94%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-10 14:55
Paddy Power1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -8.03%E -6.80%K -44.60%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV -29.92%E -2.99%K -3.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -9.70%E -1.62%K -1.94%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-10 15:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is the most recent time we recorded each book's price — on the default model, when it last changed, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.16I 86.21%NM 80.72%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.51%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.77%6.8%2026-07-10 17:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.16I 86.21%NM 80.72%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.51%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.77%6.8%2026-07-10 17:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.16I 86.21%NM 76.41%8.40I 11.90%NM 10.55%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.04%12.8%2026-07-10 17:05