The School of Odds
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Hapoel Be'er Sheva v Sabah FK

Kickoff: 2026-08-18 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hapoel Be'er Sheva (Local)

Prediction 49.03%2.04fair odd
EV -4.40%
Edge -2.26%
Kelly -4.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.50%49.03%49.03%49.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.881.871.9554.05%53.24%53.48%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sabah FK (Visit)

Prediction 24.78%4.04fair odd
EV -7.08%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -2.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.78%24.78%24.78%25.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.673.673.7527.78%27.27%27.21%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.19%3.82fair odd
EV -5.70%
Edge -1.58%
Kelly -2.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.88%26.19%26.19%26.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.523.503.6028.57%28.44%28.57%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hapoel Be'er Sheva (Local): 49.03%; Sabah FK (Visit): 24.78%; Draw: 26.19%. For Hapoel Be'er Sheva (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.04. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.95, with an expected value of -4.40%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.50%EV -4.40%E -2.26%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -7.08%E -1.89%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -5.70%E -1.58%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-12 08:45
Bet Right🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.73%EV -7.83%E -4.16%K -8.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -9.56%E -2.62%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -8.32%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-12 08:45
SportsBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.03%EV -8.32%E -4.45%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -8.32%E -2.25%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.32%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-12 08:45
FanDuel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.03%EV -8.32%E -4.45%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -8.32%E -2.25%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.32%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-12 08:45
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.96%EV -9.30%E -5.03%K -10.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -10.80%E -3.00%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -8.32%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-12 08:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.96%EV -9.30%E -5.03%K -10.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -10.80%E -3.00%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -8.32%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-12 08:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.