The School of Odds

FK Vardar v KuPS Kuopio

Kickoff: 2026-07-07 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

FK Vardar (Local)

Prediction 44.34%2.26fair odd
EV -2.44%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -2.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.05%44.48%44.17%47.58%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.902.122.152.2052.63%47.08%46.51%45.45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

KuPS Kuopio (Visit)

Prediction 27.46%3.64fair odd
EV -2.52%
Edge -0.711%
Kelly -0.990%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.83%27.54%27.58%30.46%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.903.213.133.5534.48%31.17%32.00%28.17%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 28.20%3.55fair odd
EV +1.51%
Edge +0.419%
Kelly +0.581%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.28%27.97%28.25%29.08%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.203.333.333.6031.25%30.02%30.08%27.78%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Betr (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -6.88%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -9.39%E -2.84%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV +1.51%E +0.419%K +0.581%G +0.009%5.7%2026-07-07 16:45
Bovada2.15I 46.51%NM 44.34%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.63%EV -5.27%E -1.53%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.04%EV -4.13%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-07 16:54
BetUS2.15I 46.51%NM 44.34%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.63%EV -5.27%E -1.53%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.04%EV -4.13%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-07 16:55
LeoVegas (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -2.44%E -1.11%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -16.25%E -5.33%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -4.13%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-07 15:30
TABtouch2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -2.44%E -1.11%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -16.25%E -5.33%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -4.13%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-07 15:30
Unibet (NL)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -2.44%E -1.11%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -16.25%E -5.33%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -4.13%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-07 15:30
Grosvenor2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -2.44%E -1.11%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -16.25%E -5.33%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -4.13%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-07 15:30
Casumo2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -2.44%E -1.11%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -16.25%E -5.33%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -4.13%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-07 15:30
Unibet (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -2.44%E -1.11%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -16.25%E -5.33%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -4.13%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-07 15:30
Unibet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -2.44%E -1.11%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -16.25%E -5.33%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -4.13%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-07 15:29
Svenska Spel2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -2.44%E -1.11%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -16.25%E -5.33%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -4.13%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-07 15:30
ATG (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -2.44%E -1.11%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -16.25%E -5.33%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -4.13%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-07 15:30
betPARX2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -2.44%E -1.11%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -16.25%E -5.33%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -4.13%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-07 15:30
Bet Right2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -9.09%E -4.44%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -12.13%E -3.79%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -4.13%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-07 16:45
Tipico (DE)1.90I 52.63%NM 47.58%EV -15.75%E -8.29%K -17.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -3.90%E -1.11%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -4.13%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-07 16:35
NordicBet2.18I 45.87%NM 42.27%EV -3.33%E -1.53%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -16.25%E -5.33%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -5.54%E -1.65%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-07 16:55
Betsson2.18I 45.87%NM 42.27%EV -3.33%E -1.53%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -16.25%E -5.33%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -5.54%E -1.65%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-07 16:55
DraftKings2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -6.64%E -1.95%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -6.95%E -2.11%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-07 16:54
FanDuel2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -9.09%E -4.44%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -3.90%E -1.11%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -6.95%E -2.11%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-07 16:40
SportsBet2.03I 49.26%NM 45.20%EV -9.98%E -4.92%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -6.64%E -1.95%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -6.95%E -2.11%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-07 16:40
LiveScore Bet2.16I 46.30%NM 42.11%EV -4.22%E -1.95%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.32%EV -17.63%E -5.88%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -6.95%E -2.11%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-07 15:30
Virgin Bet2.16I 46.30%NM 42.11%EV -4.22%E -1.95%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.32%EV -17.63%E -5.88%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -6.95%E -2.11%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-07 15:30
LowVig.ag2.12I 47.17%NM 44.45%EV -5.99%E -2.83%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.55%EV -2.52%E -0.711%K -0.990%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -8.36%E -2.57%K -3.72%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-07 16:54
BetOnline.ag2.12I 47.17%NM 44.45%EV -5.99%E -2.83%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.55%EV -2.52%E -0.711%K -0.990%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -8.36%E -2.57%K -3.72%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-07 16:55
888sport2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -6.88%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -9.39%E -2.84%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -8.36%E -2.57%K -3.72%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-07 16:55
888sport (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -6.88%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -9.39%E -2.84%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -8.36%E -2.57%K -3.72%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-07 16:55
Mr Green (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -6.88%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -9.39%E -2.84%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -8.36%E -2.57%K -3.72%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-07 16:55
PlayUp2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -17.63%E -5.88%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -8.36%E -2.57%K -3.72%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-07 16:55
Unibet (FR)1.95I 51.28%NM 45.06%EV -13.53%E -6.94%K -14.24%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.90%EV -13.51%E -4.29%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.04%EV -8.36%E -2.57%K -3.72%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-07 16:55
BoyleSports1.95I 51.28%NM 44.86%EV -13.53%E -6.94%K -14.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.22%EV -14.88%E -4.80%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.92%EV -8.36%E -2.57%K -3.72%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-07 16:55
Marathon Bet2.13I 46.95%NM 43.79%EV -5.55%E -2.60%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -6.64%E -1.95%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.78%EV -8.64%E -2.67%K -3.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-07 16:55
1xBet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.55%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.38%EV -6.09%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.08%EV -9.20%E -2.86%K -4.15%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-07 16:55
Paddy Power2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -11.31%E -5.66%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -9.39%E -2.84%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -9.77%E -3.05%K -4.44%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-07 16:40
PMU (FR)2.08I 48.08%NM 42.24%EV -7.76%E -3.73%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.30%EV -20.37%E -7.02%K -10.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.46%EV -9.77%E -3.05%K -4.44%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-07 15:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.18I 45.87%NM 45.56%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59%0.7%2026-07-07 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.18I 45.87%NM 45.56%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59%0.7%2026-07-07 16:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.18I 45.87%NM 45.56%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59%0.7%2026-07-07 16:55