The School of Odds

FC Vitebsk v Universitatea Craiova

Kickoff: 2026-07-08 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

FC Vitebsk (Local)

Prediction 17.92%5.58fair odd
EV -3.22%
Edge -0.596%
Kelly -0.731%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.31%17.89%17.92%19.64%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.605.004.905.4021.74%20.00%20.41%18.52%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Universitatea Craiova (Visit)

Prediction 55.89%1.79fair odd
EV -3.88%
Edge -2.25%
Kelly -5.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.78%55.86%55.89%56.16%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.621.671.671.7261.73%60.05%59.88%58.14%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 26.19%3.82fair odd
EV -3.09%
Edge -0.835%
Kelly -1.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.10%26.25%26.19%26.71%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.403.613.603.7029.41%27.70%27.78%27.03%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
FanDuel5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -3.22%E -0.596%K -0.731%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.98%EV -6.67%E -3.99%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-08 16:49
SportsBet5.30I 18.87%NM 17.46%EV -5.01%E -0.945%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.09%EV -7.79%E -4.72%K -11.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.44%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-08 16:49
1xBet5.27I 18.98%NM 18.12%EV -5.55%E -1.05%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.51%EV -3.88%E -2.25%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.37%EV -5.19%E -1.43%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-08 16:49
Betr (AU)5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%EV -5.91%E -1.13%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.97%EV -6.11%E -3.64%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-08 16:50
Coolbet5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -5.91%E -1.13%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.12%EV -6.67%E -3.99%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-08 16:50
LowVig.ag5.12I 19.53%NM 18.10%EV -8.24%E -1.61%K -2.00%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.16%EV -7.79%E -4.72%K -11.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-08 16:40
BetOnline.ag5.12I 19.53%NM 18.10%EV -8.24%E -1.61%K -2.00%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.16%EV -7.79%E -4.72%K -11.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-08 16:40
Marathon Bet5.10I 19.61%NM 18.29%EV -8.59%E -1.69%K -2.10%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.20%EV -5.55%E -3.29%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.50%EV -7.80%E -2.22%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-08 16:55
Neds5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -10.39%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.18%EV -4.99%E -2.94%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-08 16:49
Bet Right5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -10.39%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.51%EV -7.79%E -4.72%K -11.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-08 16:50
Paddy Power5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -10.39%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.54%EV -9.47%E -5.84%K -15.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -10.95%E -3.22%K -4.56%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-08 16:50
Unibet4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -12.18%E -2.49%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.80%EV -6.67%E -3.99%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -3.09%E -0.835%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-08 16:15
Unibet (NL)4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -12.18%E -2.49%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.80%EV -6.67%E -3.99%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -3.09%E -0.835%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-08 16:15
Casumo4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -12.18%E -2.49%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.80%EV -6.67%E -3.99%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -3.09%E -0.835%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-08 16:15
Unibet (SE)4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -12.18%E -2.49%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.80%EV -6.67%E -3.99%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -3.09%E -0.835%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-08 16:14
Grosvenor4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -12.18%E -2.49%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.80%EV -6.67%E -3.99%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -3.09%E -0.835%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-08 16:15
ATG (SE)4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -12.18%E -2.49%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.80%EV -6.67%E -3.99%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -3.09%E -0.835%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-08 16:15
betPARX4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -12.18%E -2.49%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.80%EV -6.67%E -3.99%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -3.09%E -0.835%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-08 16:15
Svenska Spel4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -12.18%E -2.49%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.80%EV -6.67%E -3.99%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -3.09%E -0.835%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-08 16:15
TABtouch4.90I 20.41%NM 18.95%EV -12.18%E -2.49%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.95%EV -7.23%E -4.36%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.10%EV -3.09%E -0.835%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-08 16:15
LeoVegas (SE)4.90I 20.41%NM 18.95%EV -12.18%E -2.49%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.95%EV -7.23%E -4.36%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.10%EV -3.09%E -0.835%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-08 16:15
LiveScore Bet4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -13.97%E -2.91%K -3.68%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 55.79%EV -8.91%E -5.46%K -14.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-08 16:15
Virgin Bet4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -13.97%E -2.91%K -3.68%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 55.79%EV -8.91%E -5.46%K -14.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-08 16:15
PlayUp4.60I 21.74%NM 19.64%EV -17.56%E -3.82%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 53.78%EV -6.11%E -3.64%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%EV -10.95%E -3.22%K -4.56%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-08 16:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)5.80I 17.24%NM 17.12%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.75%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.13%0.7%2026-07-08 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)5.80I 17.24%NM 17.12%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.75%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.13%0.7%2026-07-08 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)5.70I 17.54%NM 17.37%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.58%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.05%1.0%2026-07-08 16:55