The School of Odds

FC Iberia 1999 v FC Flora

2026-07-14 16:00 UTC — UEFA Champions League Qualification

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

FC Iberia 1999 (Local)

Prediction 53.05%1.88fair odd
EV -5.57%
Edge -3.13%
Kelly -7.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.38%53.05%53.14%53.93%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.611.721.721.7862%58%58%56%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

FC Flora (Visit)

Prediction 23.52%4.25fair odd
EV +1.14%
Edge +0.264%
Kelly +0.344%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.20%23.52%23.51%24.30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.603.923.904.3028%26%26%23%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 23.43%4.27fair odd
EV -6.29%
Edge -1.57%
Kelly -2.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.91%23.43%23.35%24.07%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.653.883.904.0027%26%26%25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Neds1.57I 63.69%NM 59.83%EV -16.71%E -10.64%K -29.31%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.06%EV +22.30%E +4.29%K +5.31%G +1.18%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.10%EV -0.436%E -0.103%K -0.134%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-10 14:39
Bovada1.77I 56.50%NM 53.93%EV -6.10%E -3.44%K -7.92%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.20%EV +1.14%E +0.264%K +0.344%G +0.004%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.87%EV -6.29%E -1.57%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-10 19:07
Marathon Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 53.59%EV -7.69%E -4.42%K -10.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -3.57%E -0.870%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.67%EV -7.70%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-10 19:10
1xBet1.76I 56.82%NM 53.22%EV -6.63%E -3.77%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.01%EV -4.27%E -1.05%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.77%EV -7.70%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-10 19:15
Betr (AU)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -5.57%E -3.13%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -6.29%E -1.57%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-10 19:09
888sport1.70I 58.82%NM 53.41%EV -9.81%E -5.77%K -14.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.89%EV -10.98%E -2.89%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-10 19:10
888sport (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.41%EV -9.81%E -5.77%K -14.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.89%EV -10.98%E -2.89%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-10 19:10
Mr Green (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.41%EV -9.81%E -5.77%K -14.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.89%EV -10.98%E -2.89%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-10 19:10
BetOnline.ag1.75I 57.14%NM 52.86%EV -7.16%E -4.09%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.42%EV -7.10%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.72%EV -8.64%E -2.21%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-10 19:09
LowVig.ag1.75I 57.14%NM 52.86%EV -7.16%E -4.09%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.42%EV -7.10%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.72%EV -8.64%E -2.21%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-10 19:10
SportsBet1.73I 57.80%NM 53.30%EV -8.22%E -4.75%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -8.27%E -2.12%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -6.29%E -1.57%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-10 19:10
FanDuel1.71I 58.48%NM 53.59%EV -9.28%E -5.43%K -13.07%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.27%E -2.12%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -6.29%E -1.57%K -2.10%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-10 19:10
Coolbet1.78I 56.18%NM 52.43%EV -5.57%E -3.13%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.24%EV -9.45%E -2.45%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -6.29%E -1.57%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-10 19:10
PlayUp1.72I 58.14%NM 52.48%EV -8.75%E -5.09%K -12.15%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.45%EV -9.45%E -2.45%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -12.15%E -3.24%K -4.42%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-10 19:15
Bet Right1.75I 57.14%NM 52.38%EV -7.16%E -4.09%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -10.62%E -2.80%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.64%E -2.21%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-10 19:09
Tipico (DE)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.10%EV -9.81%E -5.77%K -14.01%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -10.62%E -2.80%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.15%EV -8.64%E -2.21%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-10 19:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.10%EV -9.81%E -5.77%K -14.01%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -10.62%E -2.80%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.15%EV -8.64%E -2.21%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-10 19:10
Paddy Power1.70I 58.82%NM 52.78%EV -9.81%E -5.77%K -14.01%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -10.62%E -2.80%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -10.98%E -2.89%K -3.92%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-10 19:15
Unibet (FR)1.61I 62.11%NM 53.46%EV -14.58%E -9.06%K -23.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.95%EV -11.80%E -3.15%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.58%EV -14.49%E -3.97%K -5.47%G +0.000%16.2%2026-07-10 19:15
BoyleSports1.67I 59.88%NM 52.38%EV -11.40%E -6.83%K -17.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.30%EV -15.33%E -4.26%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.33%EV -12.15%E -3.24%K -4.42%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-10 19:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is the most recent time we recorded each book's price — on the default model, when it last changed, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.02I 98.04%NM 33.11%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.44%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.44%196.1%2026-07-10 13:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.02I 98.04%NM 33.11%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.44%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.44%196.1%2026-07-10 13:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.02I 98.04%NM 33.11%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.44%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.44%196.1%2026-07-10 13:45