The School of Odds

FC Flora v FC Iberia 1999

Kickoff: 2026-07-08 16:00 UTC

Final: FC Flora 2–3 FC Iberia 1999

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

FC Flora (Local)

Prediction 33.37%3.00fair odd
EV -4.56%
Edge -1.60%
Kelly -2.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.57%33.49%33.18%36.78%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.402.652.612.8641.67%37.70%38.31%34.97%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

FC Iberia 1999 (Visit)

Prediction 39.76%2.51fair odd
EV +1.39%
Edge +0.546%
Kelly +0.899%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.65%39.73%39.65%40.42%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.152.392.382.5546.51%41.75%42.11%39.22%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 26.87%3.72fair odd
EV -0.585%
Edge -0.158%
Kelly -0.217%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.83%26.78%27.17%27.85%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.303.443.483.7030.30%29.07%28.78%27.03%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -14.91%E -5.85%K -9.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV +1.39%E +0.546%K +0.899%G +0.013%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.96%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-08 15:35
Unibet (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -14.91%E -5.85%K -9.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV +1.39%E +0.546%K +0.899%G +0.013%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.96%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-08 15:35
ATG (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -14.91%E -5.85%K -9.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV +1.39%E +0.546%K +0.899%G +0.013%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.96%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-08 15:35
Svenska Spel2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -14.91%E -5.85%K -9.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV +1.39%E +0.546%K +0.899%G +0.013%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.96%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-08 15:35
betPARX2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -14.91%E -5.85%K -9.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV +1.39%E +0.546%K +0.899%G +0.013%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.96%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-08 15:35
Grosvenor2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -14.91%E -5.85%K -9.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV +1.39%E +0.546%K +0.899%G +0.013%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.96%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-08 15:35
Unibet2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -14.91%E -5.85%K -9.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV +1.39%E +0.546%K +0.899%G +0.013%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.96%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-08 15:35
Unibet (NL)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -14.91%E -5.85%K -9.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV +1.39%E +0.546%K +0.899%G +0.013%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.96%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-08 15:35
TABtouch2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -14.91%E -5.85%K -9.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV +1.39%E +0.546%K +0.899%G +0.013%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.96%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-08 15:35
Virgin Bet2.48I 40.32%NM 36.78%EV -17.24%E -6.95%K -11.65%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.78%EV -1.39%E -0.561%K -0.939%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.44%EV -7.30%E -2.12%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-08 15:35
LiveScore Bet2.48I 40.32%NM 36.78%EV -17.24%E -6.95%K -11.65%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.78%EV -1.39%E -0.561%K -0.939%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.44%EV -7.30%E -2.12%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-08 15:35
Betr (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -13.24%E -5.09%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -2.58%E -1.05%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -0.585%E -0.158%K -0.217%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-08 15:50
Bovada2.85I 35.09%NM 33.31%EV -4.90%E -1.72%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.56%EV -4.57%E -1.90%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -5.96%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-08 15:50
Neds2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -9.90%E -3.67%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.84%EV -4.57%E -1.90%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -5.96%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-08 15:35
PMU (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 36.67%EV -19.91%E -8.30%K -14.22%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.67%EV -4.57%E -1.90%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -11.33%E -3.43%K -4.93%G +0.000%13.6%2026-07-08 15:35
Marathon Bet2.83I 35.34%NM 32.96%EV -5.57%E -1.97%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.19%EV -5.37%E -2.25%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -9.99%E -2.98%K -4.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-08 15:55
1xBet2.86I 34.97%NM 32.76%EV -4.56%E -1.60%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.53%EV -5.76%E -2.43%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.72%EV -9.18%E -2.72%K -3.86%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-08 15:55
DraftKings2.85I 35.09%NM 33.16%EV -4.90%E -1.72%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.22%EV -6.56%E -2.79%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.62%EV -4.62%E -1.30%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-08 15:30
FanDuel2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -8.24%E -2.99%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -6.56%E -2.79%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.65%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-08 15:35
SportsBet2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -9.90%E -3.67%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.04%EV -6.56%E -2.79%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -8.65%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-08 15:40
BetUS2.84I 35.21%NM 32.57%EV -5.23%E -1.84%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.22%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -8.65%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-08 15:40
LowVig.ag2.84I 35.21%NM 32.57%EV -5.23%E -1.84%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.22%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -8.65%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-08 15:35
BetOnline.ag2.84I 35.21%NM 32.57%EV -5.23%E -1.84%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.22%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -8.65%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-08 15:35
Coolbet2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -13.24%E -5.09%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.63%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.32%EV -3.27%E -0.909%K -1.26%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-08 15:55
Mr Green (SE)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -8.24%E -2.99%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.33%E -3.43%K -4.93%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-08 15:50
888sport2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -8.24%E -2.99%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.33%E -3.43%K -4.93%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-08 15:50
888sport (SE)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -8.24%E -2.99%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.33%E -3.43%K -4.93%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-08 15:50
Paddy Power2.62I 38.17%NM 34.09%EV -12.57%E -4.80%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.84%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -11.33%E -3.43%K -4.93%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-08 15:35
PlayUp2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -8.24%E -2.99%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.68%EV -9.34%E -4.10%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.42%EV -11.33%E -3.43%K -4.93%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-08 15:35
Tipico (DE)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.07%EV -11.57%E -4.37%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.13%EV -10.54%E -4.68%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.80%EV -5.96%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-08 15:30
Unibet (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 34.11%EV -14.91%E -5.85%K -9.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.53%EV -12.52%E -5.69%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.36%EV -11.33%E -3.43%K -4.93%G +0.000%15.0%2026-07-08 15:45
BoyleSports2.50I 40.00%NM 34.76%EV -16.58%E -6.63%K -11.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.42%EV -14.51%E -6.75%K -12.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.83%EV -5.96%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%15.1%2026-07-08 15:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.88I 34.72%NM 34.60%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.86%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.55%0.4%2026-07-08 15:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.90I 34.48%NM 34.30%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.17%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.53%0.5%2026-07-08 15:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.88I 34.72%NM 34.48%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.72%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.79%0.7%2026-07-08 15:55