The School of Odds

FC Flora v FC Iberia 1999

2026-07-08 16:00 — UEFA Champions League Qualification

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Option 1: FC Flora (Local)

Odds
2.5539.22%Min
2.7236.76%Mean
2.7037.04%Median
2.8535.09%Max
Consensus probabilities
31.65%3.159Min
34.55%2.894Max
33.13%3.018Mean
33.19%3.013Median
33.23%3.010IQM
33.14%3.018Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.85 under the IQM model: 33.23%

EV -5.30%Edge -1.86%Kelly -2.87%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: FC Iberia 1999 (Visit)

Odds
2.1546.51%Min
2.3143.31%Mean
2.3243.10%Median
2.4041.67%Max
Consensus probabilities
38.22%2.616Min
41.01%2.439Max
39.67%2.521Mean
39.47%2.533Median
39.56%2.528IQM
39.71%2.518Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.40 under the IQM model: 39.56%

EV -5.05%Edge -2.10%Kelly -3.60%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds
3.2031.25%Min
3.4628.88%Mean
3.5528.17%Median
3.6527.40%Max
Consensus probabilities
25.50%3.921Min
27.80%3.597Max
27.20%3.677Mean
27.34%3.658Median
27.21%3.675IQM
27.15%3.683Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.65 under the IQM model: 27.21%

EV -0.687%Edge -0.188%Kelly -0.259%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

BookmakerFC Flora (Local) ▼FC Iberia 1999 (Visit)DrawMarginUpdated
Bovada2.85I 35.09% NM 33.40%EV -5.30% E -1.86% K -2.87% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 40.51%EV -7.02% E -2.99% K -5.20% G +0.000%3.65I 27.40% NM 26.08%EV -0.687% E -0.188% K -0.259% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-06 19:23
Betr (AU)2.85I 35.09% NM 33.04%EV -5.30% E -1.86% K -2.87% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 40.06%EV -7.02% E -2.99% K -5.20% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 26.90%EV -4.77% E -1.36% K -1.91% G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-06 19:44
Tipico (DE)2.85I 35.09% NM 31.65%EV -5.30% E -1.86% K -2.87% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 41.01%EV -12.96% E -5.89% K -10.80% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 27.34%EV -10.21% E -3.09% K -4.44% G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-06 19:20
1xBet2.82I 35.46% NM 33.22%EV -6.30% E -2.23% K -3.46% G +0.000%2.32I 43.10% NM 40.38%EV -8.21% E -3.54% K -6.22% G +0.000%3.55I 28.17% NM 26.39%EV -3.41% E -0.960% K -1.34% G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-06 19:25
Marathon Bet2.81I 35.59% NM 33.19%EV -6.63% E -2.36% K -3.66% G +0.000%2.30I 43.48% NM 40.55%EV -9.00% E -3.91% K -6.92% G +0.000%3.55I 28.17% NM 26.27%EV -3.41% E -0.960% K -1.34% G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-06 19:19
Neds2.80I 35.71% NM 33.44%EV -6.97% E -2.49% K -3.87% G +0.000%2.40I 41.67% NM 39.02%EV -5.05% E -2.10% K -3.60% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 27.54%EV -7.49% E -2.20% K -3.12% G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-06 19:20
SportsBet2.75I 36.36% NM 33.15%EV -8.63% E -3.14% K -4.93% G +0.000%2.30I 43.48% NM 39.64%EV -9.00% E -3.91% K -6.92% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 27.21%EV -8.85% E -2.64% K -3.77% G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-06 16:49
FanDuel2.75I 36.36% NM 33.01%EV -8.63% E -3.14% K -4.93% G +0.000%2.30I 43.48% NM 39.47%EV -9.00% E -3.91% K -6.92% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 27.51%EV -10.21% E -3.09% K -4.44% G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-06 16:50
PlayUp2.75I 36.36% NM 32.90%EV -8.63% E -3.14% K -4.93% G +0.000%2.28I 43.86% NM 39.68%EV -9.79% E -4.30% K -7.65% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 27.42%EV -10.21% E -3.09% K -4.44% G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-06 19:24
LeoVegas (SE)2.70I 37.04% NM 34.32%EV -10.29% E -3.81% K -6.05% G +0.000%2.32I 43.10% NM 39.94%EV -8.21% E -3.54% K -6.22% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 25.74%EV -2.05% E -0.569% K -0.788% G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-06 17:30
Unibet (SE)2.70I 37.04% NM 34.32%EV -10.29% E -3.81% K -6.05% G +0.000%2.32I 43.10% NM 39.94%EV -8.21% E -3.54% K -6.22% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 25.74%EV -2.05% E -0.569% K -0.788% G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-06 17:30
ATG (SE)2.70I 37.04% NM 34.32%EV -10.29% E -3.81% K -6.05% G +0.000%2.32I 43.10% NM 39.94%EV -8.21% E -3.54% K -6.22% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 25.74%EV -2.05% E -0.569% K -0.788% G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-06 17:29
Svenska Spel2.70I 37.04% NM 34.32%EV -10.29% E -3.81% K -6.05% G +0.000%2.32I 43.10% NM 39.94%EV -8.21% E -3.54% K -6.22% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 25.74%EV -2.05% E -0.569% K -0.788% G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-06 17:29
betPARX2.70I 37.04% NM 34.32%EV -10.29% E -3.81% K -6.05% G +0.000%2.32I 43.10% NM 39.94%EV -8.21% E -3.54% K -6.22% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 25.74%EV -2.05% E -0.569% K -0.788% G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-06 17:55
Grosvenor2.70I 37.04% NM 34.32%EV -10.29% E -3.81% K -6.05% G +0.000%2.32I 43.10% NM 39.94%EV -8.21% E -3.54% K -6.22% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 25.74%EV -2.05% E -0.569% K -0.788% G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-06 17:59
Unibet2.70I 37.04% NM 34.32%EV -10.29% E -3.81% K -6.05% G +0.000%2.32I 43.10% NM 39.94%EV -8.21% E -3.54% K -6.22% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 25.74%EV -2.05% E -0.569% K -0.788% G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-06 18:05
Unibet (NL)2.70I 37.04% NM 34.32%EV -10.29% E -3.81% K -6.05% G +0.000%2.32I 43.10% NM 39.94%EV -8.21% E -3.54% K -6.22% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 25.74%EV -2.05% E -0.569% K -0.788% G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-06 18:04
TABtouch2.70I 37.04% NM 34.32%EV -10.29% E -3.81% K -6.05% G +0.000%2.32I 43.10% NM 39.94%EV -8.21% E -3.54% K -6.22% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 25.74%EV -2.05% E -0.569% K -0.788% G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-06 18:04
Mr Green (SE)2.70I 37.04% NM 33.98%EV -10.29% E -3.81% K -6.05% G +0.000%2.40I 41.67% NM 38.22%EV -5.05% E -2.10% K -3.60% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 27.80%EV -10.21% E -3.09% K -4.44% G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-06 17:20
888sport2.70I 37.04% NM 33.98%EV -10.29% E -3.81% K -6.05% G +0.000%2.40I 41.67% NM 38.22%EV -5.05% E -2.10% K -3.60% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 27.80%EV -10.21% E -3.09% K -4.44% G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-06 17:50
888sport (SE)2.70I 37.04% NM 33.98%EV -10.29% E -3.81% K -6.05% G +0.000%2.40I 41.67% NM 38.22%EV -5.05% E -2.10% K -3.60% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 27.80%EV -10.21% E -3.09% K -4.44% G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-06 19:55
Paddy Power2.70I 37.04% NM 33.42%EV -10.29% E -3.81% K -6.05% G +0.000%2.30I 43.48% NM 39.23%EV -9.00% E -3.91% K -6.92% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 27.34%EV -10.21% E -3.09% K -4.44% G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-06 16:49
Unibet (FR)2.70I 37.04% NM 32.26%EV -10.29% E -3.81% K -6.05% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 40.52%EV -14.94% E -6.95% K -12.99% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 27.22%EV -12.93% E -4.04% K -5.88% G +0.000%14.8%2026-07-06 19:30
Virgin Bet2.63I 38.02% NM 34.55%EV -12.61% E -4.80% K -7.74% G +0.000%2.28I 43.86% NM 39.85%EV -9.79% E -4.30% K -7.65% G +0.000%3.55I 28.17% NM 25.60%EV -3.41% E -0.960% K -1.34% G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-06 17:54
LiveScore Bet2.63I 38.02% NM 34.55%EV -12.61% E -4.80% K -7.74% G +0.000%2.28I 43.86% NM 39.85%EV -9.79% E -4.30% K -7.65% G +0.000%3.55I 28.17% NM 25.60%EV -3.41% E -0.960% K -1.34% G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-06 17:54
BoyleSports2.60I 38.46% NM 33.83%EV -13.61% E -5.23% K -8.51% G +0.000%2.25I 44.44% NM 39.10%EV -10.98% E -4.88% K -8.78% G +0.000%3.25I 30.77% NM 27.07%EV -11.57% E -3.56% K -5.14% G +0.000%13.7%2026-07-06 16:54
PMU (FR)2.55I 39.22% NM 34.50%EV -15.27% E -5.99% K -9.85% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 39.99%EV -12.96% E -5.89% K -10.80% G +0.000%3.45I 28.99% NM 25.50%EV -6.13% E -1.78% K -2.50% G +0.000%13.7%2026-07-06 17:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerFC Flora (Local)FC Iberia 1999 (Visit)DrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.05I 32.79% NM 32.39%2.46I 40.65% NM 40.16%3.60I 27.78% NM 27.44%1.2%2026-07-06 19:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.05I 32.79% NM 32.39%2.46I 40.65% NM 40.16%3.60I 27.78% NM 27.44%1.2%2026-07-06 19:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.05I 32.79% NM 32.27%2.46I 40.65% NM 40.01%3.55I 28.17% NM 27.72%1.6%2026-07-06 19:55