The School of Odds
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FC Flora v FC Iberia 1999

Kickoff: 2026-07-08 16:00 UTC

Final: FC Flora 2–3 FC Iberia 1999

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Flora (Local)

Prediction 33.37%3.00fair odd
EV -4.56%
Edge -1.60%
Kelly -2.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.57%33.49%33.18%36.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.652.612.8641.67%37.70%38.31%34.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Iberia 1999 (Visit)

Prediction 39.76%2.51fair odd
EV +1.39%
Edge +0.546%
Kelly +0.899%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.65%39.73%39.65%40.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.392.382.5546.51%41.75%42.11%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.87%3.72fair odd
EV -0.585%
Edge -0.158%
Kelly -0.217%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.83%26.78%27.17%27.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.443.483.7030.30%29.07%28.78%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Flora (Local): 33.37%; FC Iberia 1999 (Visit): 39.76%; Draw: 26.87%. For FC Iberia 1999 (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.51. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.39%.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -14.91%E -5.85%K -9.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV +1.39%E +0.546%K +0.899%G +0.013%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.96%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-08 15:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -14.91%E -5.85%K -9.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV +1.39%E +0.546%K +0.899%G +0.013%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.96%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-08 15:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -14.91%E -5.85%K -9.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV +1.39%E +0.546%K +0.899%G +0.013%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.96%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-08 15:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -14.91%E -5.85%K -9.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV +1.39%E +0.546%K +0.899%G +0.013%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.96%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-08 15:35
betPARX🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -14.91%E -5.85%K -9.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV +1.39%E +0.546%K +0.899%G +0.013%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.96%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-08 15:35
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -14.91%E -5.85%K -9.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV +1.39%E +0.546%K +0.899%G +0.013%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.96%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-08 15:35
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -14.91%E -5.85%K -9.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV +1.39%E +0.546%K +0.899%G +0.013%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.96%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-08 15:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -14.91%E -5.85%K -9.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV +1.39%E +0.546%K +0.899%G +0.013%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.96%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-08 15:35
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -14.91%E -5.85%K -9.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV +1.39%E +0.546%K +0.899%G +0.013%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.96%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-08 15:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.78%EV -17.24%E -6.95%K -11.65%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.78%EV -1.39%E -0.561%K -0.939%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.44%EV -7.30%E -2.12%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-08 15:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.78%EV -17.24%E -6.95%K -11.65%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.78%EV -1.39%E -0.561%K -0.939%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.44%EV -7.30%E -2.12%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-08 15:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -13.24%E -5.09%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -2.58%E -1.05%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -0.585%E -0.158%K -0.217%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-08 15:50
Bovada🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.31%EV -4.90%E -1.72%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.56%EV -4.57%E -1.90%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -5.96%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-08 15:50
Neds🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -9.90%E -3.67%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.84%EV -4.57%E -1.90%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -5.96%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-08 15:35
PMU (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.67%EV -19.91%E -8.30%K -14.22%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.67%EV -4.57%E -1.90%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -11.33%E -3.43%K -4.93%G +0.000%13.6%2026-07-08 15:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 32.96%EV -5.57%E -1.97%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.19%EV -5.37%E -2.25%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -9.99%E -2.98%K -4.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-08 15:55
1xBet🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 32.76%EV -4.56%E -1.60%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.53%EV -5.76%E -2.43%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.72%EV -9.18%E -2.72%K -3.86%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-08 15:55
DraftKings🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.16%EV -4.90%E -1.72%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.22%EV -6.56%E -2.79%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.62%EV -4.62%E -1.30%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-08 15:30
FanDuel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -8.24%E -2.99%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -6.56%E -2.79%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.65%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-08 15:35
SportsBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -9.90%E -3.67%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.04%EV -6.56%E -2.79%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -8.65%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-08 15:40
BetUS🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 32.57%EV -5.23%E -1.84%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.22%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -8.65%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-08 15:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 32.57%EV -5.23%E -1.84%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.22%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -8.65%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-08 15:35
BetOnline.ag🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 32.57%EV -5.23%E -1.84%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.22%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -8.65%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-08 15:35
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -13.24%E -5.09%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.63%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.32%EV -3.27%E -0.909%K -1.26%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-08 15:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -8.24%E -2.99%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.33%E -3.43%K -4.93%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-08 15:50
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -8.24%E -2.99%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.33%E -3.43%K -4.93%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-08 15:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -8.24%E -2.99%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.33%E -3.43%K -4.93%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-08 15:50
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.09%EV -12.57%E -4.80%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.84%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -11.33%E -3.43%K -4.93%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-08 15:35
PlayUp🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -8.24%E -2.99%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.68%EV -9.34%E -4.10%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.42%EV -11.33%E -3.43%K -4.93%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-08 15:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.07%EV -11.57%E -4.37%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.13%EV -10.54%E -4.68%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.80%EV -5.96%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-08 15:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.11%EV -14.91%E -5.85%K -9.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.53%EV -12.52%E -5.69%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.36%EV -11.33%E -3.43%K -4.93%G +0.000%15.0%2026-07-08 15:45
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.76%EV -16.58%E -6.63%K -11.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.42%EV -14.51%E -6.75%K -12.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.83%EV -5.96%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%15.1%2026-07-08 15:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.88I 34.72%NM 34.60%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.86%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.55%0.4%2026-07-08 15:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.90I 34.48%NM 34.30%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.17%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.53%0.5%2026-07-08 15:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.88I 34.72%NM 34.48%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.72%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.79%0.7%2026-07-08 15:55

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