Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

ETO FC Győr v Víkingur Reykjavík

Kickoff: 2026-07-14 17:00 UTC

Final: ETO FC Győr 2–2 Víkingur Reykjavík

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

ETO FC Győr (Local)

Prediction 59.11%1.69fair odd
EV -3.06%
Edge -1.87%
Kelly -4.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.63%59.04%59.11%61.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.531.501.6469.93%65.38%66.67%60.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Víkingur Reykjavík (Visit)

Prediction 17.47%5.72fair odd
EV -0.393%
Edge -0.069%
Kelly -0.084%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.37%17.45%17.47%19.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.275.305.7021.05%18.99%18.87%17.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.42%4.27fair odd
EV +3.04%
Edge +0.690%
Kelly +0.893%
Growth +0.027%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.01%23.52%23.42%25.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.154.204.4027.03%24.10%23.81%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Casumo1.50I 66.67%NM 61.78%EV -11.34%E -7.56%K -22.68%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.16%EV -5.64%E -1.04%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV +3.04%E +0.690%K +0.893%G +0.027%7.9%2026-07-14 16:50
Unibet (NL)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.78%EV -11.34%E -7.56%K -22.68%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.16%EV -5.64%E -1.04%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV +3.04%E +0.690%K +0.893%G +0.027%7.9%2026-07-14 16:50
Unibet1.50I 66.67%NM 61.78%EV -11.34%E -7.56%K -22.68%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.16%EV -5.64%E -1.04%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV +3.04%E +0.690%K +0.893%G +0.027%7.9%2026-07-14 16:50
TABtouch1.50I 66.67%NM 61.78%EV -11.34%E -7.56%K -22.68%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.16%EV -5.64%E -1.04%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV +3.04%E +0.690%K +0.893%G +0.027%7.9%2026-07-14 16:50
Grosvenor1.50I 66.67%NM 61.78%EV -11.34%E -7.56%K -22.68%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.16%EV -5.64%E -1.04%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV +3.04%E +0.690%K +0.893%G +0.027%7.9%2026-07-14 16:50
betPARX1.50I 66.67%NM 61.78%EV -11.34%E -7.56%K -22.68%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.16%EV -5.64%E -1.04%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV +3.04%E +0.690%K +0.893%G +0.027%7.9%2026-07-14 16:50
LiveScore Bet1.48I 67.57%NM 61.50%EV -12.52%E -8.46%K -26.08%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.34%EV -8.26%E -1.57%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.17%EV +0.695%E +0.162%K +0.211%G +0.001%9.9%2026-07-14 16:50
Virgin Bet1.48I 67.57%NM 61.50%EV -12.52%E -8.46%K -26.08%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.34%EV -8.26%E -1.57%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.17%EV +0.695%E +0.162%K +0.211%G +0.001%9.9%2026-07-14 16:50
FanDuel1.57I 63.69%NM 59.88%EV -7.20%E -4.59%K -12.63%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.74%EV -7.38%E -1.39%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -1.65%E -0.392%K -0.515%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-14 16:48
PMU (FR)1.43I 69.93%NM 61.70%EV -15.48%E -10.82%K -35.99%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.30%EV -10.88%E -2.13%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.01%EV -1.65%E -0.392%K -0.515%G +0.000%13.3%2026-07-14 16:50
SportsBet1.55I 64.52%NM 59.66%EV -8.38%E -5.41%K -15.24%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.78%EV -9.13%E -1.76%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.55%EV -3.99%E -0.973%K -1.29%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-14 16:49
DraftKings1.59I 62.89%NM 59.29%EV -6.02%E -3.79%K -10.20%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.14%EV -3.89%E -0.707%K -0.864%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -6.33%E -1.58%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-14 16:50
BetOnline.ag1.59I 62.89%NM 58.29%EV -6.02%E -3.79%K -10.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.54%EV -12.63%E -2.53%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -6.33%E -1.58%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-14 16:50
LowVig.ag1.59I 62.89%NM 58.29%EV -6.02%E -3.79%K -10.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.54%EV -12.63%E -2.53%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -6.33%E -1.58%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-14 16:50
PlayUp1.55I 64.52%NM 58.35%EV -8.38%E -5.41%K -15.24%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.04%EV -16.99%E -3.58%K -4.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -6.33%E -1.58%K -2.11%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-14 16:49
Paddy Power1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -11.34%E -7.56%K -22.68%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -12.63%E -2.53%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -6.33%E -1.58%K -2.11%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-14 16:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 59.36%EV -11.34%E -7.56%K -22.68%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -12.63%E -2.53%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.83%EV -8.67%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-14 16:50
Marathon Bet1.59I 62.89%NM 58.68%EV -6.02%E -3.79%K -10.20%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.37%EV -0.393%E -0.069%K -0.084%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.95%EV -12.42%E -3.32%K -4.53%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-14 16:50
1xBet1.64I 60.98%NM 57.63%EV -3.06%E -1.87%K -4.79%G +0.000%5.62I 17.79%NM 16.82%EV -1.79%E -0.319%K -0.388%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -13.36%E -3.61%K -4.95%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-14 16:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.64I 60.98%NM 60.71%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.17%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.13%0.4%2026-07-14 16:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.64I 60.98%NM 60.43%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.52%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.05%0.9%2026-07-14 16:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 60.73%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.40%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.88%1.7%2026-07-14 16:50