Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

VfB Stuttgart v Viking FK

2026-09-09 16:45 UTC — UEFA Champions League

Resultado del partido

48 corredores (12 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

VfB Stuttgart (Local)

Predicción 73.98%1.35momio equitativo
EV -3.09%
Ventaja -2.36%
Kelly -9.95%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.31

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
71.00%74.13%74.08%76.71%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.201.261.261.3183.33%79.30%79.37%76.34%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Viking FK (Visitante)

Predicción 10.58%9.45momio equitativo
EV +16.39%
Ventaja +1.49%
Kelly +1.64%
Crecimiento +0.269%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 11.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
8.86%10.47%10.50%12.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
6.758.959.0011.0014.81%11.18%11.11%9.09%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 15.44%6.48momio equitativo
EV +4.21%
Ventaja +0.624%
Kelly +0.732%
Crecimiento +0.031%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.33%15.40%15.42%17.69%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.206.086.226.7519.23%16.45%16.06%14.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: VfB Stuttgart (Local): 73.98%; Viking FK (Visitante): 10.58%; Empate: 15.44%. Para Viking FK (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 9.45. 11 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 11.00, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +16.39%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (48 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 76.71%EV -6.04%E -4.76%K -22.39%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.86%EV +16.39%E +1.49%K +1.64%G +0.269%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.43%EV +4.21%E +0.624%K +0.732%G +0.031%2.6%2026-08-29 19:41
1xBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 74.46%EV -3.09%E -2.36%K -9.95%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.75%EV +5.81%E +0.581%K +0.646%G +0.038%6.18I 16.18%NM 15.78%EV -4.59%E -0.743%K -0.886%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-29 19:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 74.55%EV -3.83%E -2.94%K -12.75%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.69%EV +5.81%E +0.581%K +0.646%G +0.038%6.15I 16.26%NM 15.76%EV -5.05%E -0.822%K -0.981%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-29 23:55
SportsBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -7.52%E -6.02%K -30.10%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV +5.81%E +0.581%K +0.646%G +0.038%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV +0.350%E +0.054%K +0.064%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-29 19:40
betfred_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -7.52%E -6.02%K -30.10%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV +5.81%E +0.581%K +0.646%G +0.038%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV +0.350%E +0.054%K +0.064%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-29 19:41
Paddy Power🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.35%EV -9.74%E -7.99%K -44.29%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV +5.81%E +0.581%K +0.646%G +0.038%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV +0.350%E +0.054%K +0.064%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-29 19:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.35%EV -9.74%E -7.99%K -44.29%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV +5.81%E +0.581%K +0.646%G +0.038%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV +0.350%E +0.054%K +0.064%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-29 19:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.29%EV -7.52%E -6.02%K -30.10%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.65%EV +3.16%E +0.325%K +0.362%G +0.011%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.06%EV -3.51%E -0.562%K -0.669%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 19:41
Sky Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.10%EV -7.52%E -6.02%K -30.10%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV +0.520%E +0.055%K +0.061%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.02%EV -3.51%E -0.562%K -0.669%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-29 19:40
Bet Right🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.63%EV -7.52%E -6.02%K -30.10%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV +0.520%E +0.055%K +0.061%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -7.37%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 21:14
PlayUp🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.54%EV -5.30%E -4.14%K -18.95%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.77%EV +0.520%E +0.055%K +0.061%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.69%EV -18.95%E -3.61%K -4.46%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-29 19:40
GTbets🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.72%EV -4.57%E -3.54%K -15.74%G +0.000%9.41I 10.63%NM 10.11%EV -0.433%E -0.046%K -0.051%G +0.000%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.17%EV -9.22%E -1.57%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-29 19:41
Codere (IT)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.32%EV -5.30%E -4.14%K -18.95%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.34%EV -2.65%E -0.289%K -0.324%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.34%EV -4.28%E -0.691%K -0.823%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-29 19:45
William Hill🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.22%EV -4.57%E -3.54%K -15.74%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.49%EV -4.77%E -0.530%K -0.596%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.29%EV -10.46%E -1.80%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-30 00:00
888sport🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.12%EV -4.57%E -3.54%K -15.74%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.48%EV -4.77%E -0.530%K -0.596%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.40%EV -11.23%E -1.95%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-29 22:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.12%EV -4.57%E -3.54%K -15.74%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.48%EV -4.77%E -0.530%K -0.596%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.40%EV -11.23%E -1.95%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-29 22:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.12%EV -4.57%E -3.54%K -15.74%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.48%EV -4.77%E -0.530%K -0.596%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.40%EV -11.23%E -1.95%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-29 22:50
betPARX🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.54%EV -6.78%E -5.38%K -26.09%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV -4.77%E -0.530%K -0.596%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.03%EV -3.51%E -0.562%K -0.669%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-29 20:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.54%EV -6.78%E -5.38%K -26.09%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV -4.77%E -0.530%K -0.596%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.03%EV -3.51%E -0.562%K -0.669%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-29 20:50
BetRivers🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.54%EV -6.78%E -5.38%K -26.09%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV -4.77%E -0.530%K -0.596%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.03%EV -3.51%E -0.562%K -0.669%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-29 20:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.54%EV -6.78%E -5.38%K -26.09%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV -4.77%E -0.530%K -0.596%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.03%EV -3.51%E -0.562%K -0.669%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-29 20:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.54%EV -6.78%E -5.38%K -26.09%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV -4.77%E -0.530%K -0.596%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.03%EV -3.51%E -0.562%K -0.669%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-29 20:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.54%EV -6.78%E -5.38%K -26.09%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV -4.77%E -0.530%K -0.596%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.03%EV -3.51%E -0.562%K -0.669%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-29 20:50
Grosvenor🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.54%EV -6.78%E -5.38%K -26.09%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV -4.77%E -0.530%K -0.596%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.03%EV -3.51%E -0.562%K -0.669%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-29 20:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.54%EV -6.78%E -5.38%K -26.09%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV -4.77%E -0.530%K -0.596%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.03%EV -3.51%E -0.562%K -0.669%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-29 20:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.54%EV -6.78%E -5.38%K -26.09%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV -4.77%E -0.530%K -0.596%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.03%EV -3.51%E -0.562%K -0.669%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-29 20:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.54%EV -6.78%E -5.38%K -26.09%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV -4.77%E -0.530%K -0.596%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.03%EV -3.51%E -0.562%K -0.669%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-29 20:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.54%EV -6.78%E -5.38%K -26.09%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV -4.77%E -0.530%K -0.596%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.03%EV -3.51%E -0.562%K -0.669%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-29 20:55
TABtouch🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.54%EV -6.78%E -5.38%K -26.09%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV -4.77%E -0.530%K -0.596%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.03%EV -3.51%E -0.562%K -0.669%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-29 21:00
Unibet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.54%EV -6.78%E -5.38%K -26.09%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV -4.77%E -0.530%K -0.596%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.03%EV -3.51%E -0.562%K -0.669%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-29 21:00
FanDuel🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.27%EV -8.26%E -6.66%K -34.43%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -4.77%E -0.530%K -0.596%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV +0.350%E +0.054%K +0.064%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 19:40
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.21%EV -5.30%E -4.14%K -18.95%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -10.06%E -1.18%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.61%EV +0.350%E +0.054%K +0.064%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 20:00
BetMGM🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.63%EV -4.57%E -3.54%K -15.74%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.17%EV -10.06%E -1.18%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -3.51%E -0.562%K -0.669%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 20:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.32%EV -5.30%E -4.14%K -18.95%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.04%EV -10.06%E -1.18%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -7.37%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 20:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.47%EV -6.04%E -4.76%K -22.39%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV -10.06%E -1.18%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -7.37%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 22:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.39%EV -7.52%E -6.02%K -30.10%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -10.06%E -1.18%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.82%EV -10.46%E -1.80%K -2.18%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-29 19:40
theScore Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.93%EV -8.26%E -6.66%K -34.43%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -10.06%E -1.18%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -7.37%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 19:40
Casumo🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.86%EV -9.74%E -7.99%K -44.29%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.60%EV -10.06%E -1.18%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.54%EV -10.46%E -1.80%K -2.18%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-29 20:50
NetBet (FR)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 73.35%EV -11.22%E -9.35%K -56.12%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.35%EV -10.06%E -1.18%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.30%EV -16.63%E -3.08%K -3.78%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-30 01:10
Pinnacle🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.42%EV -5.30%E -4.14%K -18.95%G +0.000%8.39I 11.92%NM 11.20%EV -11.23%E -1.34%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.11I 16.37%NM 15.38%EV -5.67%E -0.928%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-30 01:15
Neds🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.07%EV -5.30%E -4.14%K -18.95%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.34%EV -12.71%E -1.54%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV -7.37%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-29 20:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.07%EV -5.30%E -4.14%K -18.95%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.34%EV -12.71%E -1.54%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV -7.37%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-29 20:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.21%EV -8.26%E -6.66%K -34.43%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.00%EV -12.71%E -1.54%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.79%EV -11.23%E -1.95%K -2.36%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-29 19:40
ReBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.90%EV -7.52%E -6.02%K -30.10%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.11%EV -13.24%E -1.61%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.99%EV -12.00%E -2.11%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-29 19:41
Winamax (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.73%EV -7.52%E -6.02%K -30.10%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -15.35%E -1.92%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.75%EV -3.51%E -0.562%K -0.669%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-29 19:40
Suprabets🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.74%EV -6.78%E -5.38%K -26.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.46%EV -15.35%E -1.92%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.80%EV -10.46%E -1.80%K -2.18%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 23:43
LeoVegas🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 71.58%EV -6.78%E -5.38%K -26.09%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.02%EV -20.64%E -2.75%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.40%EV -15.09%E -2.74%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-29 20:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 71.00%EV -11.22%E -9.35%K -56.12%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 12.62%EV -28.58%E -4.23%K -4.97%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.38%EV -19.72%E -3.79%K -4.70%G +0.000%17.4%2026-08-29 22:45
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets1.21I 82.64%NM 70.92%7.20I 13.89%NM 11.92%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.16%16.5%2026-08-29 19:41
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.26I 79.37%NM 29.61%1.06I 94.34%NM 35.20%1.06I 94.34%NM 35.20%168.0%2026-08-29 19:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.26I 79.37%NM 29.61%1.06I 94.34%NM 35.20%1.06I 94.34%NM 35.20%168.0%2026-08-29 19:41
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.26I 79.37%NM 28.61%1.01I 99.01%NM 35.69%1.01I 99.01%NM 35.69%177.4%2026-08-29 19:40