L’École des cotes

Paris Saint Germain v Arsenal

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-30 16:00 UTC

Score final : Paris Saint Germain 1–1 Arsenal

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

60 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Paris Saint Germain (Local)

Prévision 39.19%2.55cote équitable
EV -0.070%
Avantage -0.027%
Kelly -0.045%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.55

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
38.04%39.35%39.06%41.03%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.302.422.402.5543.48%41.26%41.67%39.22%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Arsenal (Visiteur)

Prévision 31.67%3.16cote équitable
EV +1.34%
Avantage +0.418%
Kelly +0.608%
Croissance +0.008%

avec la cote maximale 3.20

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
29.49%31.51%31.78%32.54%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.802.993.003.2035.71%33.42%33.33%31.25%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 29.14%3.43cote équitable
EV -0.912%
Avantage -0.268%
Kelly -0.380%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.40

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
28.32%29.14%29.16%30.48%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.883.253.303.4034.72%30.76%30.30%29.41%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (60 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Caesars2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -9.87%E -4.29%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV +1.34%E +0.418%K +0.608%G +0.008%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-30 12:09
Coolbet2.50I 40.00%NM 39.20%EV -2.03%E -0.812%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.92%EV +0.388%E +0.122%K +0.179%G +0.001%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.88%EV -4.41%E -1.34%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.0%2026-05-30 15:19
1xBet2.39I 41.84%NM 40.59%EV -6.34%E -2.65%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.70%EV +0.071%E +0.023%K +0.033%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.70%EV -1.49%E -0.442%K -0.628%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-30 15:50
Betclic (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 40.52%EV -5.95%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.87%EV -0.245%E -0.078%K -0.114%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.60%EV -0.912%E -0.268%K -0.380%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-30 15:17
Unibet (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 40.52%EV -5.95%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.87%EV -0.245%E -0.078%K -0.114%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.60%EV -0.912%E -0.268%K -0.380%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-30 15:10
NetBet (FR)2.32I 43.10%NM 40.99%EV -9.08%E -3.92%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.19%EV -0.245%E -0.078%K -0.114%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.82%EV -3.83%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-30 15:40
Svenska Spel2.55I 39.22%NM 38.87%EV -0.070%E -0.027%K -0.045%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.97%EV -1.83%E -0.590%K -0.871%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.15%EV -0.912%E -0.268%K -0.380%G +0.000%0.9%2026-05-30 15:40
ATG (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 38.87%EV -0.070%E -0.027%K -0.045%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.97%EV -1.83%E -0.590%K -0.871%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.15%EV -0.912%E -0.268%K -0.380%G +0.000%0.9%2026-05-30 15:40
Unibet (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 38.87%EV -0.070%E -0.027%K -0.045%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.97%EV -1.83%E -0.590%K -0.871%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.15%EV -0.912%E -0.268%K -0.380%G +0.000%0.9%2026-05-30 15:40
Unibet (NL)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.17%EV -2.03%E -0.812%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.59%EV -1.83%E -0.590%K -0.871%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.23%EV -2.37%E -0.707%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.1%2026-05-30 15:40
PMU (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -5.95%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.08%EV -1.83%E -0.590%K -0.871%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.76%EV -2.37%E -0.707%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-30 15:40
Pinnacle2.54I 39.37%NM 38.65%EV -0.462%E -0.182%K -0.300%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 31.77%EV -2.15%E -0.694%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.57%EV -3.24%E -0.977%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.9%2026-05-30 15:50
Grosvenor2.50I 40.00%NM 38.97%EV -2.03%E -0.812%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.94%EV -3.41%E -1.12%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.08%EV -2.37%E -0.707%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-30 15:40
Betsson2.50I 40.00%NM 38.80%EV -2.03%E -0.812%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.80%EV -3.41%E -1.12%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.39%EV -3.83%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-30 15:20
NordicBet2.50I 40.00%NM 38.80%EV -2.03%E -0.812%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.80%EV -3.41%E -1.12%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.39%EV -3.83%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-30 15:20
Unibet2.48I 40.32%NM 38.99%EV -2.81%E -1.13%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.70%EV -3.41%E -1.12%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.30%EV -3.83%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-30 15:40
Bally Bet2.48I 40.32%NM 38.99%EV -2.81%E -1.13%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.70%EV -3.41%E -1.12%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.30%EV -3.83%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-30 15:40
theScore Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.45%EV -7.91%E -3.36%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.17%EV -3.41%E -1.12%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -2.37%E -0.707%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-30 15:10
GTbets2.44I 40.98%NM 39.58%EV -4.38%E -1.80%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.77%EV -3.73%E -1.23%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.66%EV -1.79%E -0.530%K -0.754%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-30 14:00
LowVig.ag2.53I 39.53%NM 38.58%EV -0.854%E -0.337%K -0.558%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.54%EV -5.00%E -1.67%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.88%EV -1.49%E -0.442%K -0.628%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-30 15:40
BetOnline.ag2.53I 39.53%NM 38.58%EV -0.854%E -0.337%K -0.558%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.54%EV -5.00%E -1.67%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.88%EV -1.49%E -0.442%K -0.628%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-30 15:39
BetUS2.45I 40.82%NM 39.08%EV -3.99%E -1.63%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.91%EV -5.00%E -1.67%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.01%EV -3.83%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-30 15:40
Bovada2.45I 40.82%NM 39.08%EV -3.99%E -1.63%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.91%EV -5.00%E -1.67%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.01%EV -3.83%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-30 15:00
BetAnything2.45I 40.82%NM 39.08%EV -3.99%E -1.63%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.91%EV -5.00%E -1.67%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.01%EV -3.83%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-30 15:10
Winamax (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.74%EV -5.95%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.79%EV -5.00%E -1.67%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.47%EV -2.37%E -0.707%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-30 12:50
Codere (IT)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -3.99%E -1.63%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.77%EV -5.00%E -1.67%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.33%EV -5.28%E -1.63%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-30 15:50
Bet Victor2.40I 41.67%NM 39.57%EV -5.95%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.65%EV -5.00%E -1.67%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -3.83%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-30 15:50
Fanatics2.40I 41.67%NM 39.57%EV -5.95%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.65%EV -5.00%E -1.67%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -3.83%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-30 11:19
SportsBet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.73%EV -3.99%E -1.63%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -5.00%E -1.67%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.65%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-30 15:30
FanDuel2.45I 40.82%NM 38.73%EV -3.99%E -1.63%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -5.00%E -1.67%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.65%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-30 14:40
Ladbrokes (UK)2.37I 42.19%NM 39.87%EV -7.12%E -3.01%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -5.00%E -1.67%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.63%EV -3.83%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-30 13:40
Coral2.37I 42.19%NM 39.87%EV -7.12%E -3.01%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -5.00%E -1.67%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.63%EV -3.83%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-30 13:40
TAB2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -5.95%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -5.00%E -1.67%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-30 15:19
888sport2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -5.95%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -5.00%E -1.67%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -9.65%E -3.11%K -4.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-30 06:50
Paddy Power2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -5.95%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -5.00%E -1.67%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -9.65%E -3.11%K -4.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-30 15:20
888sport (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -5.95%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -5.00%E -1.67%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -9.65%E -3.11%K -4.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-30 06:50
Mr Green (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -5.95%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -5.00%E -1.67%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -9.65%E -3.11%K -4.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-30 06:50
BoyleSports2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -6.73%E -2.83%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -5.00%E -1.67%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -9.65%E -3.11%K -4.60%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-30 13:59
Suprabets2.48I 40.32%NM 38.24%EV -2.81%E -1.13%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.04%EV -6.26%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.73%EV -7.03%E -2.20%K -3.21%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-30 15:29
DraftKings2.45I 40.82%NM 38.87%EV -3.99%E -1.63%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -6.58%E -2.23%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.86%EV -3.83%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-30 13:40
Everygame2.50I 40.00%NM 38.04%EV -2.03%E -0.812%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.24%EV -6.58%E -2.23%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.72%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-30 15:30
Winamax (DE)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.53%EV -5.95%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.16%EV -6.58%E -2.23%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.32%EV -2.37%E -0.707%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-30 15:50
Bet Right2.40I 41.67%NM 39.36%EV -5.95%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.02%EV -6.58%E -2.23%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.62%EV -3.83%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-30 13:10
BetMGM2.38I 42.02%NM 39.56%EV -6.73%E -2.83%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.91%EV -6.58%E -2.23%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -3.83%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-30 13:10
LeoVegas (SE)2.43I 41.15%NM 38.71%EV -4.77%E -1.96%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.89%EV -6.58%E -2.23%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.40%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-30 15:40
PointsBet (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.31%EV -3.99%E -1.63%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -8.16%E -2.81%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-30 13:10
PlayUp2.45I 40.82%NM 38.31%EV -3.99%E -1.63%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -8.16%E -2.81%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-30 15:20
Betr (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -5.95%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -8.16%E -2.81%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -5.28%E -1.63%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-30 13:10
Sky Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -5.95%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -8.16%E -2.81%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -5.28%E -1.63%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-30 15:20
betPARX2.40I 41.67%NM 38.80%EV -5.95%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -8.16%E -2.81%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-30 15:40
BetRivers2.38I 42.02%NM 38.82%EV -6.73%E -2.83%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.86%EV -8.16%E -2.81%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.33%EV -8.20%E -2.60%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-30 15:40
betfred_uk2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -5.95%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.54%EV -8.80%E -3.05%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -3.83%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-30 13:10
Betway2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -5.95%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.40%EV -8.80%E -3.05%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.71%EV -5.28%E -1.63%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-30 14:19
TABtouch2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -6.73%E -2.83%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.01%EV -8.80%E -3.05%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.26%EV -8.20%E -2.60%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-30 15:40
Virgin Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 38.53%EV -7.91%E -3.36%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.77%EV -9.75%E -3.42%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.69%EV -11.11%E -3.64%K -5.42%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-30 15:40
LiveScore Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 38.53%EV -7.91%E -3.36%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.77%EV -9.75%E -3.42%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.69%EV -11.11%E -3.64%K -5.42%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-30 15:40
Fliff2.35I 42.55%NM 38.68%EV -7.91%E -3.36%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.46%EV -11.33%E -4.05%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -8.20%E -2.60%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-30 15:50
LeoVegas2.32I 43.10%NM 38.62%EV -9.08%E -3.92%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.00%EV -11.33%E -4.05%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.38%EV -11.11%E -3.64%K -5.42%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-30 15:40
Casumo2.32I 43.10%NM 38.62%EV -9.08%E -3.92%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.00%EV -11.33%E -4.05%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.38%EV -11.11%E -3.64%K -5.42%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-30 15:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 38.17%EV -9.87%E -4.29%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.35%EV -11.33%E -4.05%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.48%EV -16.07%E -5.58%K -8.55%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-30 14:10
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Smarkets2.56I 39.06%NM 38.98%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.68%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.35%0.2%2026-05-30 15:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.56I 39.06%NM 38.81%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.54%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.66%0.7%2026-05-30 15:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.56I 39.06%NM 38.81%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.54%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.66%0.7%2026-05-30 15:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.56I 39.06%NM 38.81%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.54%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.66%0.7%2026-05-30 15:50
Matchbook2.56I 39.06%NM 38.81%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.54%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.66%0.7%2026-05-30 15:50