Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Como v Manchester United

2026-10-21 16:45 UTC — UEFA Champions League

Resultado del partido

47 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Como (Local)

Predicción 41.68%2.40momio equitativo
EV -2.05%
Ventaja -0.873%
Kelly -1.52%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.87%41.68%41.68%42.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.172.232.202.3546.08%44.86%45.45%42.55%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Manchester United (Visitante)

Predicción 32.41%3.09momio equitativo
EV -1.14%
Ventaja -0.375%
Kelly -0.558%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.05

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.38%32.43%32.32%33.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.752.862.823.0536.36%35.00%35.46%32.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.91%3.86momio equitativo
EV -0.254%
Ventaja -0.066%
Kelly -0.089%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.73%25.89%25.99%27.69%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.403.543.503.8529.41%28.27%28.57%25.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Como (Local): 41.68%; Manchester United (Visitante): 32.41%; Empate: 25.91%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.86. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 3.85, con un valor esperado de -0.254%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (47 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.86%EV -2.05%E -0.873%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.25%EV -1.14%E -0.375%K -0.558%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.89%EV -1.55%E -0.408%K -0.553%G +0.000%1.7%2026-10-14 22:34
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.31%EV -2.05%E -0.873%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.48%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.22%EV -0.254%E -0.066%K -0.089%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-14 23:30
NordicBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.78%EV -4.14%E -1.80%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.25%EV -3.41%E -1.15%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.97%EV -4.14%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-15 00:00
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.64%EV -4.14%E -1.80%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.47%EV -4.39%E -1.49%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.89%EV -4.14%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-14 22:10
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.14%E -1.80%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.76%EV -6.65%E -2.31%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -6.73%E -1.87%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-14 22:09
Caesars🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -4.14%E -1.80%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -2.76%E -0.921%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -11.91%E -3.50%K -4.96%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-15 00:46
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -4.14%E -1.80%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -7.63%E -2.68%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.73%E -1.87%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-14 22:14
Marathon Bet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.84%EV -4.55%E -1.99%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.26%EV -3.74%E -1.26%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.90%EV -4.14%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-14 22:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.60%EV -4.55%E -1.99%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.30%EV -4.39%E -1.49%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.10%EV -5.44%E -1.49%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-14 22:09
Betsson🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.71%EV -4.97%E -2.18%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.24%EV -4.39%E -1.49%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.05%EV -5.44%E -1.49%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-15 00:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.23%EV -6.22%E -2.76%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.76%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.00%EV -1.55%E -0.408%K -0.553%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-14 23:45
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -6.22%E -2.76%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -6.73%E -1.87%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-14 22:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.22%E -2.76%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.47%EV -6.65%E -2.31%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.73%E -1.87%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-14 22:09
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.22%E -2.76%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.47%EV -6.65%E -2.31%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.73%E -1.87%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-14 22:09
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.22%E -2.76%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.47%EV -6.65%E -2.31%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.73%E -1.87%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-14 22:20
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -6.22%E -2.76%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.35%EV -6.65%E -2.31%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.24%EV -8.03%E -2.26%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-14 22:10
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -6.22%E -2.76%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -9.32%E -2.66%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-14 23:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -6.22%E -2.76%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -9.32%E -2.66%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-14 23:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -6.22%E -2.76%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -9.32%E -2.66%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-14 23:30
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -6.22%E -2.76%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -9.32%E -2.66%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-14 23:30
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -6.22%E -2.76%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -9.32%E -2.66%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-14 23:55
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -6.22%E -2.76%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -6.73%E -1.87%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-14 23:29
Pinnacle🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.50%EV -6.64%E -2.96%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.71%EV -5.68%E -1.95%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.79%EV -0.513%E -0.134%K -0.181%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-14 23:15
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -8.30%E -3.77%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -6.73%E -1.87%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-15 00:00
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.15%EV -8.30%E -3.77%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.12%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.73%EV -2.85%E -0.759%K -1.03%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-14 23:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.87%EV -8.30%E -3.77%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.24%EV -5.44%E -1.49%K -2.05%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-14 23:24
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.87%EV -8.30%E -3.77%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.24%EV -5.44%E -1.49%K -2.05%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-14 23:25
picklebet_au🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -8.30%E -3.77%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -9.32%E -2.66%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-14 22:10
ReBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.30%EV -8.30%E -3.77%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.45%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.26%EV -10.36%E -2.99%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-14 22:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -8.30%E -3.77%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -11.91%E -3.50%K -4.96%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-15 00:35
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.87%EV -8.30%E -3.77%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.69%EV -10.87%E -3.95%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -11.91%E -3.50%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-14 22:10
TABtouch🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.33%EV -9.14%E -4.19%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.18%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -11.91%E -3.50%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-14 23:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.33%EV -9.14%E -4.19%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.18%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -11.91%E -3.50%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-14 23:35
Grosvenor🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.33%EV -9.14%E -4.19%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.18%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -11.91%E -3.50%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-14 23:35
BetRivers🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.33%EV -9.14%E -4.19%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.18%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -11.91%E -3.50%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-14 23:35
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.33%EV -9.14%E -4.19%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.18%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -11.91%E -3.50%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-14 23:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.33%EV -9.14%E -4.19%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.18%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -11.91%E -3.50%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-14 23:34
betPARX🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.33%EV -9.14%E -4.19%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.18%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -11.91%E -3.50%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-14 23:35
Casumo🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.33%EV -9.14%E -4.19%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.18%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -11.91%E -3.50%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-14 23:39
LiveScore Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.33%EV -9.14%E -4.19%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.18%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -11.91%E -3.50%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-14 23:39
PMU (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.33%EV -9.14%E -4.19%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.18%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -11.91%E -3.50%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-14 23:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.33%EV -9.14%E -4.19%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.18%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -11.91%E -3.50%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-14 23:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.33%EV -9.14%E -4.19%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.18%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -11.91%E -3.50%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-14 23:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.33%EV -9.14%E -4.19%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.18%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -11.91%E -3.50%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-14 23:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.33%EV -9.14%E -4.19%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.18%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -11.91%E -3.50%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-14 23:39
Bally Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.33%EV -9.14%E -4.19%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.18%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -11.91%E -3.50%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-14 23:39
Betclic (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.85%EV -9.55%E -4.40%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.20%EV -8.60%E -3.05%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -9.32%E -2.66%K -3.73%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-14 22:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.58%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.22%3.0%2026-10-15 00:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.58%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.22%3.0%2026-10-15 00:09
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.58%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.22%3.0%2026-10-15 00:09
Smarkets◎2.20I 45.45%NM 42.59%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.76%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%6.7%2026-10-15 01:40
Matchbook◎2.22I 45.05%NM 41.60%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.75%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%8.3%2026-10-14 22:14