Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

AEK Athens v LASK

2026-09-08 16:45 UTC — UEFA Champions League

Resultado del partido

48 corredores (13 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

AEK Athens (Local)

Predicción 55.61%1.80momio equitativo
EV -0.467%
Ventaja -0.261%
Kelly -0.591%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.79

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
53.92%55.58%55.56%56.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.581.691.681.7963.29%59.31%59.52%55.87%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

LASK (Visitante)

Predicción 20.77%4.81momio equitativo
EV +3.85%
Ventaja +0.771%
Kelly +0.963%
Crecimiento +0.037%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.08%20.68%20.77%22.42%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.804.464.405.0026.32%22.43%22.73%20.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 23.62%4.23momio equitativo
EV -0.778%
Ventaja -0.185%
Kelly -0.243%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.93%23.74%23.67%25.16%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.603.913.904.2027.78%25.56%25.64%23.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: AEK Athens (Local): 55.61%; LASK (Visitante): 20.77%; Empate: 23.62%. Para LASK (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 4.81. 2 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 5.00, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +3.85%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (48 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.80%EV -4.92%E -2.87%K -6.92%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV +3.85%E +0.771%K +0.963%G +0.037%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.11%EV -10.23%E -2.69%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-29 18:29
1xBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 56.10%EV -3.25%E -1.87%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.83I 20.70%NM 20.21%EV +0.322%E +0.067%K +0.084%G +0.000%4.12I 24.27%NM 23.69%EV -2.67%E -0.648%K -0.855%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-30 02:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 56.11%EV -3.80%E -2.20%K -5.21%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.22%EV -0.301%E -0.063%K -0.079%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.67%EV -3.14%E -0.766%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-30 02:05
GTbets🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 54.39%EV -0.467%E -0.261%K -0.591%G +0.000%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.45%EV -1.13%E -0.238%K -0.301%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 25.16%EV -8.57%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-29 18:30
Coolbet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 56.30%EV -3.80%E -2.20%K -5.21%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.51%EV -1.34%E -0.282%K -0.357%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.19%EV -0.778%E -0.185%K -0.243%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-29 18:30
Pinnacle🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.85%EV -5.47%E -3.22%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.61I 21.69%NM 20.59%EV -4.25%E -0.921%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 23.56%EV -4.79%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 18:40
SportsBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.92%E -2.87%K -6.92%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.66%EV -4.45%E -0.968%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.76%EV -5.50%E -1.38%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-29 18:29
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.72%EV -5.47%E -3.22%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.59%EV -4.45%E -0.968%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -5.50%E -1.38%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-29 18:50
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.87%EV -6.03%E -3.57%K -8.74%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%EV -4.45%E -0.968%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -5.50%E -1.38%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 18:50
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -5.47%E -3.22%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -4.45%E -0.968%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -10.23%E -2.69%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-29 20:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -5.47%E -3.22%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -4.45%E -0.968%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -10.23%E -2.69%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-29 20:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -5.47%E -3.22%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -4.45%E -0.968%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -10.23%E -2.69%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-29 20:55
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -5.47%E -3.22%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -4.45%E -0.968%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -10.23%E -2.69%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 00:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.50%EV -4.36%E -2.53%K -6.05%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.21%EV -6.53%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.28%EV -3.14%E -0.766%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-29 18:55
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.04%EV -3.80%E -2.20%K -5.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -6.53%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80%EV -5.50%E -1.38%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-29 18:30
Paddy Power🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -5.47%E -3.22%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -6.53%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -5.50%E -1.38%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-29 18:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -5.47%E -3.22%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -6.53%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -5.50%E -1.38%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-29 18:50
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -5.47%E -3.22%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -6.53%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -5.50%E -1.38%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-29 18:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -5.47%E -3.22%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -6.53%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -5.50%E -1.38%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-29 18:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -5.47%E -3.22%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -6.53%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -5.50%E -1.38%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-29 18:29
Sky Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -5.47%E -3.22%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -6.53%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -7.87%E -2.02%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-29 18:30
FanDuel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%EV -7.14%E -4.28%K -10.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -6.53%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -5.50%E -1.38%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 18:30
Bet Right🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.88%EV -5.47%E -3.22%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -8.61%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -7.87%E -2.02%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 18:30
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.17%EV -6.58%E -3.92%K -9.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -8.61%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -7.87%E -2.02%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 20:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.17%EV -6.58%E -3.92%K -9.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -8.61%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -7.87%E -2.02%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 20:50
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.17%EV -6.58%E -3.92%K -9.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -8.61%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -7.87%E -2.02%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 20:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.17%EV -6.58%E -3.92%K -9.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -8.61%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -7.87%E -2.02%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 20:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.17%EV -6.58%E -3.92%K -9.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -8.61%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -7.87%E -2.02%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 20:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.17%EV -6.58%E -3.92%K -9.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -8.61%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -7.87%E -2.02%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 20:50
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.17%EV -6.58%E -3.92%K -9.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -8.61%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -7.87%E -2.02%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 20:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.17%EV -6.58%E -3.92%K -9.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -8.61%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -7.87%E -2.02%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 20:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.17%EV -6.58%E -3.92%K -9.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -8.61%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -7.87%E -2.02%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 20:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.17%EV -6.58%E -3.92%K -9.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -8.61%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -7.87%E -2.02%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 20:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.17%EV -6.58%E -3.92%K -9.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -8.61%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -7.87%E -2.02%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 20:55
TABtouch🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.17%EV -6.58%E -3.92%K -9.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -8.61%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -7.87%E -2.02%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 21:00
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.17%EV -6.58%E -3.92%K -9.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -8.61%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -7.87%E -2.02%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 21:00
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.32%EV -7.14%E -4.28%K -10.66%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -8.61%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -7.87%E -2.02%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-29 18:55
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.65%EV -6.58%E -3.92%K -9.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -8.61%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -11.41%E -3.04%K -4.15%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-29 19:05
Suprabets🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.30%EV -7.70%E -4.64%K -11.66%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -8.61%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.84%EV -9.05%E -2.35%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-29 23:43
Unibet (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.07%EV -5.47%E -3.22%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.52%EV -9.65%E -2.22%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.41%EV -5.50%E -1.38%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 22:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.20%EV -7.70%E -4.64%K -11.66%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.31%EV -10.69%E -2.49%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.49%EV -7.87%E -2.02%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 18:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.18%EV -8.25%E -5.00%K -12.69%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.17%EV -10.69%E -2.49%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.65%EV -9.05%E -2.35%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-29 18:58
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.24%EV -7.70%E -4.64%K -11.66%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.83%EV -12.76%E -3.04%K -3.99%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.93%EV -5.50%E -1.38%K -1.83%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 18:55
ReBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.58%EV -7.70%E -4.64%K -11.66%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -12.76%E -3.04%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -10.23%E -2.69%K -3.65%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-29 18:55
LeoVegas🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.88%EV -8.81%E -5.37%K -13.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.43%EV -12.76%E -3.04%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.69%EV -10.23%E -2.69%K -3.65%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-29 19:05
Casumo🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.86%EV -9.36%E -5.74%K -14.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -12.76%E -3.04%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.85%EV -11.41%E -3.04%K -4.15%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-29 20:50
NetBet (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 55.46%EV -12.14%E -7.69%K -20.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.86%EV -12.76%E -3.04%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.68%EV -12.59%E -3.40%K -4.66%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-29 19:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 53.92%EV -12.14%E -7.69%K -20.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.42%EV -21.07%E -5.55%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.66%EV -14.95%E -4.15%K -5.75%G +0.000%17.4%2026-08-29 22:45
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (3)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 55.25%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.57%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%3.4%2026-08-29 19:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 55.25%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.57%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%3.4%2026-08-29 19:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.75I 57.14%NM 55.25%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.57%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%3.4%2026-08-29 19:10
Arbitraje (1 combinación) +0.33%GTbets 1.79 (56.0%) / PointsBet (AU) 5.00 (20.1%) / Coolbet 4.20 (23.9%)Ver detalles
AEK Athens (Local)LASK (Visitante)EmpateMargen
GTbets🎯 1.79 (56.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 5.00 (20.1%)Coolbet🎯 4.20 (23.9%)+0.326%