The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Goztepe v Galatasaray

Kickoff: 2026-03-18 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Goztepe (Local)

Prediction 20.04%4.99fair odd
EV -0.816%
Edge -0.165%
Kelly -0.207%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.12%20.14%20.00%21.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.554.534.9523.81%21.98%22.10%20.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Galatasaray (Visit)

Prediction 54.77%1.83fair odd
EV -4.14%
Edge -2.37%
Kelly -5.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.19%54.71%54.87%56.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.651.671.7566.67%60.42%59.88%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.19%3.97fair odd
EV -1.77%
Edge -0.453%
Kelly -0.609%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.87%25.15%25.13%26.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.653.603.9030.30%27.43%27.78%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Goztepe (Local): 20.04%; Galatasaray (Visit): 54.77%; Draw: 25.19%. For Goztepe (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.99. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.95, with an expected value of -0.816%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.95I 20.20%NM 19.58%EV -0.816%E -0.165%K -0.207%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.38%EV -4.14%E -2.37%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 25.04%EV -2.52%E -0.652%K -0.879%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-16 16:45
FanDuel🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -3.82%E -0.796%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.30%EV -8.53%E -5.11%K -12.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -1.77%E -0.453%K -0.609%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-14 20:24
SportsBet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV -4.82%E -1.02%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.33%EV -9.07%E -5.47%K -13.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.98%EV -1.77%E -0.453%K -0.609%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-14 20:25
Pinnacle🎯4.73I 21.14%NM 20.05%EV -5.22%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.13%EV -5.79%E -3.36%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.82%EV -3.78%E -0.990%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-16 18:00
888sport🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -7.83%E -1.70%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -6.88%E -4.05%K -9.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -11.84%E -3.38%K -4.74%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-16 06:55
888sport (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -7.83%E -1.70%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -6.88%E -4.05%K -9.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -11.84%E -3.38%K -4.74%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-16 06:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -7.83%E -1.70%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -6.88%E -4.05%K -9.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -11.84%E -3.38%K -4.74%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-16 06:54
Bovada🎯4.55I 21.98%NM 20.25%EV -8.83%E -1.94%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.85%EV -7.98%E -4.75%K -11.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -6.80%E -1.84%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-16 18:01
BoyleSports🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.22%EV -9.83%E -2.19%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -8.53%E -5.11%K -12.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-14 22:49
Paddy Power🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.15%EV -9.83%E -2.19%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.98%EV -11.27%E -6.95%K -18.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.87%EV -4.28%E -1.13%K -1.53%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-14 20:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.12%EV -9.83%E -2.19%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 54.81%EV -14.00%E -8.92%K -24.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.07%EV -16.88%E -5.11%K -7.34%G +0.000%16.2%2026-03-15 18:55
Fliff🎯4.45I 22.47%NM 20.20%EV -10.83%E -2.43%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.83%EV -11.81%E -7.34%K -19.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.97%EV -5.54%E -1.48%K -2.02%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-16 03:35
NetBet (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 19.83%EV -11.84%E -2.69%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 55.23%EV -13.46%E -8.52%K -23.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.93%EV -11.84%E -3.38%K -4.74%G +0.000%14.6%2026-03-16 03:34
Betway🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.25%EV -13.24%E -3.06%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.19%EV -5.24%E -3.03%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-14 21:45
Sky Bet🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.51%EV -13.24%E -3.06%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 54.82%EV -11.27%E -6.95%K -18.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.59%G +0.000%12.6%2026-03-15 18:05
PMU (FR)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 20.00%EV -15.84%E -3.77%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 56.00%EV -17.84%E -11.89%K -35.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.00%EV -11.84%E -3.38%K -4.74%G +0.000%19.0%2026-03-14 20:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-03-17 02:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-03-17 02:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-03-17 02:25