The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Galatasaray v Samsunspor

2026-11-21 13:00 UTC — Turkey Super League

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Galatasaray (Local)

Prediction 78.38%1.28fair odd
EV -5.16%
Edge -4.27%
Kelly -24.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.01%78.36%78.70%80.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.101.171.181.2190.91%85.28%84.75%82.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Samsunspor (Visit)

Prediction 8.15%12.27fair odd
EV +10.00%
Edge +0.740%
Kelly +0.800%
Growth +0.080%

assuming max odds 13.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.17%8.19%7.94%10.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.0010.8111.0013.5012.50%9.25%9.09%7.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 13.47%7.42fair odd
EV +7.79%
Edge +0.973%
Kelly +1.11%
Growth +0.087%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.11%13.45%13.36%15.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.406.746.958.0018.52%14.83%14.39%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Galatasaray (Local): 78.38%; Samsunspor (Visit): 8.15%; Draw: 13.47%. For Samsunspor (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 12.27. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 13.50, producing a positive expected value of +10.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 80.72%EV -5.95%E -4.95%K -29.73%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.17%EV +10.00%E +0.740%K +0.800%G +0.080%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.11%EV +7.79%E +0.973%K +1.11%G +0.087%3.2%2026-11-09 12:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.02%EV -7.51%E -6.37%K -41.74%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.87%EV -2.23%E -0.185%K -0.202%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.11%EV +5.09%E +0.653%K +0.749%G +0.038%5.9%2026-11-09 12:05
Pinnacle🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.07%EV -5.16%E -4.27%K -24.58%G +0.000%10.65I 9.39%NM 8.87%EV -13.23%E -1.24%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.23I 13.83%NM 13.06%EV -2.59%E -0.358%K -0.415%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-09 12:20
Fanatics🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.93%EV -7.51%E -6.37%K -41.74%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -2.23%E -0.185%K -0.202%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.31%EV -5.69%E -0.812%K -0.948%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-09 11:46
888sport (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.38%EV -7.51%E -6.37%K -41.74%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -10.37%E -0.943%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.21%EV -5.69%E -0.812%K -0.948%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-09 12:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.38%EV -7.51%E -6.37%K -41.74%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -10.37%E -0.943%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.21%EV -5.69%E -0.812%K -0.948%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-09 12:45
888sport🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.38%EV -7.51%E -6.37%K -41.74%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -10.37%E -0.943%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.21%EV -5.69%E -0.812%K -0.948%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-09 12:44
Marathon Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.73%EV -7.51%E -6.37%K -41.74%G +0.000%11.75I 8.51%NM 7.91%EV -4.26%E -0.363%K -0.397%G +0.000%6.95I 14.39%NM 13.37%EV -6.36%E -0.915%K -1.07%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-09 12:00
Bovada🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.87%EV -5.95%E -4.95%K -29.73%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.46%EV -20.56%E -2.11%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.67%EV -9.05%E -1.34%K -1.57%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-09 16:32
Winamax (DE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 76.80%EV -10.65%E -9.34%K -76.06%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.73%EV -26.67%E -2.96%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.47%EV -12.42%E -1.91%K -2.26%G +0.000%14.2%2026-11-09 11:34
Betsson🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.49%EV -5.95%E -4.95%K -29.73%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.75%EV -2.23%E -0.185%K -0.202%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.76%EV -15.12%E -2.40%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-09 11:35
NordicBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.49%EV -5.95%E -4.95%K -29.73%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.75%EV -2.23%E -0.185%K -0.202%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.76%EV -15.12%E -2.40%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-09 11:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 76.87%EV -10.65%E -9.34%K -76.06%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.76%EV -18.52%E -1.85%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.37%EV -17.81%E -2.92%K -3.49%G +0.000%14.1%2026-11-09 11:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 75.01%EV -12.22%E -10.91%K -101.80%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.50%EV -34.82%E -4.35%K -4.97%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 14.49%EV -21.85%E -3.77%K -4.55%G +0.000%19.0%2026-11-09 11:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 75.01%EV -13.78%E -12.53%K -137.83%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 9.71%EV -30.74%E -3.62%K -4.10%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 15.28%EV -27.24%E -5.05%K -6.19%G +0.000%21.2%2026-11-09 11:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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