Language:English
Galatasaray v Kasimpasa SK
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Galatasaray (Local)
Prediction 75.10%1.33fair odd
EV -3.87%
Edge -3.02%
Kelly -13.81%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.56%75.03%75.04%78.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.231.241.2884.75%81.18%80.65%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Kasimpasa SK (Visit)
Prediction 9.38%10.67fair odd
EV +13.45%
Edge +1.11%
Kelly +1.21%
Growth +0.163%
assuming max odds 12.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.01%9.40%9.39%11.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.259.9710.0012.1013.79%10.03%10.00%8.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 15.52%6.44fair odd
EV +8.34%
Edge +1.19%
Kelly +1.39%
Growth +0.116%
assuming max odds 6.98
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.88%15.57%15.57%17.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.105.936.006.9819.61%16.87%16.67%14.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Galatasaray (Local): 75.10%; Kasimpasa SK (Visit): 9.38%; Draw: 15.52%. For Kasimpasa SK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.67. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.45%.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.12%EV -6.87%E -5.54%K -28.63%G +0.000% | 12.10I 8.26%NM 8.01%EV +13.45%E +1.11%K +1.21%G +0.163% | 6.98I 14.33%NM 13.88%EV +8.34%E +1.19%K +1.39%G +0.116% | 3.2% | 2026-09-30 06:29 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.79%EV -6.87%E -5.54%K -28.63%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV +3.14%E +0.285%K +0.314%G +0.010% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -6.88%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-03 18:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.79%EV -6.87%E -5.54%K -28.63%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV +3.14%E +0.285%K +0.314%G +0.010% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -6.88%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-03 18:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.79%EV -6.87%E -5.54%K -28.63%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV +3.14%E +0.285%K +0.314%G +0.010% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -6.88%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-03 18:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.79%EV -6.87%E -5.54%K -28.63%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV +3.14%E +0.285%K +0.314%G +0.010% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -6.88%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-03 18:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.79%EV -6.87%E -5.54%K -28.63%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV +3.14%E +0.285%K +0.314%G +0.010% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -6.88%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-03 18:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.79%EV -6.87%E -5.54%K -28.63%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV +3.14%E +0.285%K +0.314%G +0.010% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -6.88%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-03 18:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.79%EV -6.87%E -5.54%K -28.63%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV +3.14%E +0.285%K +0.314%G +0.010% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -6.88%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-03 18:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.79%EV -6.87%E -5.54%K -28.63%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV +3.14%E +0.285%K +0.314%G +0.010% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -6.88%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-03 18:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.79%EV -6.87%E -5.54%K -28.63%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV +3.14%E +0.285%K +0.314%G +0.010% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -6.88%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-03 18:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.33%EV -6.87%E -5.54%K -28.63%G +0.000% | 10.80I 9.26%NM 8.76%EV +1.26%E +0.117%K +0.129%G +0.002% | 6.35I 15.75%NM 14.91%EV -1.44%E -0.227%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-04 17:24 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.33%EV -6.87%E -5.54%K -28.63%G +0.000% | 10.80I 9.26%NM 8.76%EV +1.26%E +0.117%K +0.129%G +0.002% | 6.35I 15.75%NM 14.91%EV -1.44%E -0.227%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-05 00:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.32%EV -8.37%E -6.86%K -38.06%G +0.000% | 10.75I 9.30%NM 8.66%EV +0.793%E +0.074%K +0.081%G +0.001% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.02%EV -3.77%E -0.608%K -0.725%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-30 06:25 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.64%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.48%G +0.000% | 10.67I 9.37%NM 8.86%EV +0.043%E +0.004%K +0.004%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.50%EV -5.32%E -0.873%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-03 05:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.05%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.48%G +0.000% | 10.54I 9.49%NM 8.78%EV -1.18%E -0.112%K -0.123%G +0.000% | 5.39I 18.55%NM 17.17%EV -16.34%E -3.03%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-05 04:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.99%EV -6.87%E -5.54%K -28.63%G +0.000% | 10.52I 9.51%NM 8.96%EV -1.36%E -0.130%K -0.143%G +0.000% | 6.26I 15.97%NM 15.05%EV -2.84%E -0.454%K -0.540%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-04 11:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.02%EV -8.37%E -6.86%K -38.06%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.95%EV -1.55%E -0.148%K -0.163%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.03%EV +3.99%E +0.595%K +0.700%G +0.028% | 6.4% | 2026-10-05 12:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.01%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.65%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.88%EV -1.55%E -0.148%K -0.163%G +0.000% | 5.45I 18.35%NM 17.11%EV -15.41%E -2.83%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-05 04:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.32%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.65%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -6.24%E -0.624%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.19%EV -2.99%E -0.479%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-05 14:19 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.48%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -6.24%E -0.624%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -6.88%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-04 18:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.48%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -6.24%E -0.624%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -6.88%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-05 03:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.77%EV -7.62%E -6.20%K -33.14%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -6.24%E -0.624%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -2.99%E -0.479%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-05 14:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -6.87%E -5.54%K -28.63%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -6.24%E -0.624%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -6.88%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-05 14:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -8.37%E -6.86%K -38.06%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -6.24%E -0.624%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -6.88%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-30 06:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -8.37%E -6.86%K -38.06%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -6.24%E -0.624%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -6.88%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-30 06:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -8.37%E -6.86%K -38.06%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -6.24%E -0.624%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -6.88%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-30 06:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -8.37%E -6.86%K -38.06%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -6.24%E -0.624%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -6.88%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-05 14:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.63%EV -8.37%E -6.86%K -38.06%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.11%EV -6.24%E -0.624%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.26%EV -13.08%E -2.34%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-03 18:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.63%EV -8.37%E -6.86%K -38.06%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.11%EV -6.24%E -0.624%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.26%EV -13.08%E -2.34%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-03 18:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.63%EV -8.37%E -6.86%K -38.06%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.11%EV -6.24%E -0.624%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.26%EV -13.08%E -2.34%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-03 18:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 74.79%EV -9.13%E -7.54%K -43.45%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.05%EV -6.24%E -0.624%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.16%EV -13.08%E -2.34%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-10-03 18:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.12%EV -7.62%E -6.20%K -33.14%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.48%EV -8.58%E -0.880%K -0.981%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.40%EV -6.88%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-04 11:31 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.56%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.65%G +0.000% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 9.79%EV -9.99%E -1.04%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -6.88%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-04 18:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.18%EV -3.87%E -3.02%K -13.81%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.99%EV -10.93%E -1.15%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.83%EV -6.88%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-04 20:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.63%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.48%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -10.93%E -1.15%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -6.88%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-04 20:11 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.63%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.48%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -10.93%E -1.15%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -6.88%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-04 20:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.63%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.48%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -10.93%E -1.15%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -6.88%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-04 20:11 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.63%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.48%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -10.93%E -1.15%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -6.88%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-04 18:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.78%EV -6.87%E -5.54%K -28.63%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -10.93%E -1.15%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -6.88%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-04 18:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.09%EV -8.37%E -6.86%K -38.06%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -10.93%E -1.15%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -6.88%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-05 14:19 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.44%EV -7.62%E -6.20%K -33.14%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -10.93%E -1.15%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.92%EV -10.76%E -1.87%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-05 14:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.40%EV -9.88%E -8.23%K -49.38%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.52%EV -10.93%E -1.15%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.08%EV -6.88%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-10-05 14:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.06%EV -8.37%E -6.86%K -38.06%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -10.93%E -1.15%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -14.64%E -2.66%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-02 15:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 74.72%EV -11.38%E -9.64%K -63.21%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 9.53%EV -13.27%E -1.43%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 15.75%EV -13.08%E -2.34%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-10-02 17:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.69%EV -8.37%E -6.86%K -38.06%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -15.61%E -1.73%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -6.88%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-02 20:44 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 73.67%EV -11.38%E -9.64%K -63.21%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.23%EV -20.30%E -2.39%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.10%EV -16.19%E -3.00%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-10-04 18:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 72.78%EV -9.88%E -8.23%K -49.38%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 10.59%EV -22.65%E -2.75%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.64%EV -18.52%E -3.53%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-10-04 18:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.38%EV -8.37%E -6.86%K -38.06%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.19%EV -24.99%E -3.12%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.43%EV -9.98%E -1.72%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-04 18:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 71.68%EV -8.37%E -6.86%K -38.06%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.66%EV -29.68%E -3.96%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.66%EV -18.52%E -3.53%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-10-05 14:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 71.56%EV -10.63%E -8.93%K -55.93%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 11.75%EV -32.02%E -4.42%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 16.70%EV -20.84%E -4.09%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 17.4% | 2026-10-04 18:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.60% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.77% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.62% | 3.6% | 2026-10-05 13:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.60% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.77% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.62% | 3.6% | 2026-10-05 13:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.60% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.77% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.62% | 3.6% | 2026-10-05 13:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.93% | 11.11I 9.00%NM 8.66% | 6.67I 14.99%NM 14.42% | 4.0% | 2026-10-05 12:01 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 70.92% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 14.66% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.42% | 15.6% | 2026-10-05 14:20 |