Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Galatasaray v Kasimpasa SK

2026-10-09 17:00 UTC — Turkey Super League

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Galatasaray (Local)

Prediction 75.92%1.32fair odd
EV -5.09%
Edge -4.08%
Kelly -20.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.49%75.83%76.01%77.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.161.221.221.2586.21%82.04%81.97%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kasimpasa SK (Visit)

Prediction 8.82%11.34fair odd
EV +5.86%
Edge +0.488%
Kelly +0.533%
Growth +0.031%

assuming max odds 12.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.06%8.91%8.79%11.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.2510.0610.0012.0013.79%9.94%10.00%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 15.25%6.56fair odd
EV +5.40%
Edge +0.782%
Kelly +0.914%
Growth +0.049%

assuming max odds 6.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.99%15.27%15.20%17.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.896.006.9120.00%16.97%16.67%14.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Galatasaray (Local): 75.92%; Kasimpasa SK (Visit): 8.82%; Draw: 15.25%. For Kasimpasa SK (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.34. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 12.00, producing a positive expected value of +5.86%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.96%EV -5.85%E -4.72%K -24.39%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.06%EV +5.86%E +0.488%K +0.533%G +0.031%6.91I 14.47%NM 13.99%EV +5.40%E +0.782%K +0.914%G +0.049%3.5%2026-09-22 14:23
Tipico (DE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.02%EV -7.37%E -6.04%K -33.51%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.95%EV -7.37%E -0.702%K -0.776%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 14.03%EV +2.20%E +0.328%K +0.386%G +0.008%6.4%2026-09-22 13:15
Fanatics🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.72%EV -5.85%E -4.72%K -24.39%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV -2.96%E -0.269%K -0.296%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.64%EV -0.852%E -0.131%K -0.155%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-22 12:09
Pinnacle🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.24%EV -5.85%E -4.72%K -24.39%G +0.000%10.74I 9.31%NM 8.80%EV -5.26%E -0.490%K -0.540%G +0.000%6.32I 15.82%NM 14.96%EV -3.60%E -0.569%K -0.676%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-22 10:09
Coolbet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.12%EV -5.09%E -4.08%K -20.38%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV -2.96%E -0.269%K -0.296%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.22%EV -4.66%E -0.746%K -0.889%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-22 14:18
Marathon Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.23%EV -7.37%E -6.04%K -33.51%G +0.000%10.75I 9.30%NM 8.65%EV -5.17%E -0.481%K -0.530%G +0.000%6.15I 16.26%NM 15.12%EV -6.19%E -1.01%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-22 10:34
FanDuel🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.79%EV -5.85%E -4.72%K -24.39%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -2.96%E -0.269%K -0.296%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -8.48%E -1.41%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-22 14:20
SportsBet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.94%EV -6.61%E -5.38%K -28.75%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -2.96%E -0.269%K -0.296%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -8.48%E -1.41%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-22 14:24
888sport🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.37%E -6.04%K -33.51%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -11.79%E -1.18%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -8.48%E -1.41%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-22 12:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.37%E -6.04%K -33.51%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -11.79%E -1.18%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -8.48%E -1.41%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-22 12:44
888sport (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.37%E -6.04%K -33.51%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -11.79%E -1.18%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -8.48%E -1.41%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-22 12:44
Codere (IT)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.46%EV -5.85%E -4.72%K -24.39%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.62%EV -15.31%E -1.60%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.92%EV -11.53%E -1.99%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-22 10:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 73.30%EV -8.89%E -7.41%K -44.45%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.99%EV -29.43%E -3.68%K -4.20%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.71%EV -14.58%E -2.60%K -3.17%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-22 10:34
BoyleSports🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.41%EV -7.37%E -6.04%K -33.51%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -11.79%E -1.18%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -16.11%E -2.93%K -3.58%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-22 12:04
Paddy Power🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.73%EV -8.89%E -7.41%K -44.45%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.97%EV -11.79%E -1.18%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -16.11%E -2.93%K -3.58%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-22 14:24
NordicBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.83%EV -5.85%E -4.72%K -24.39%G +0.000%11.48I 8.71%NM 8.08%EV +1.27%E +0.111%K +0.121%G +0.002%5.43I 18.42%NM 17.09%EV -17.17%E -3.16%K -3.88%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-22 13:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 73.55%EV -11.93%E -10.28%K -74.54%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.04%EV -25.02%E -2.94%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.41%EV -20.68%E -3.98%K -4.92%G +0.000%17.2%2026-09-22 10:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 72.76%EV -10.41%E -8.82%K -57.83%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 10.41%EV -27.22%E -3.30%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 16.83%EV -22.21%E -4.35%K -5.42%G +0.000%16.5%2026-09-22 10:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 71.49%EV -10.41%E -8.82%K -57.83%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 11.64%EV -36.04%E -4.97%K -5.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 16.87%EV -23.73%E -4.75%K -5.93%G +0.000%18.5%2026-09-22 10:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.