The School of Odds

Galatasaray v Akhisar Belediyespor

2026-08-14 18:30 UTC — Turkey Super League

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Galatasaray (Local)

Prediction 79.95%1.25fair odd
EV -6.45%
Edge -5.52%
Kelly -37.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.88%79.95%79.95%80.46%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.131.151.141.1788.50%87.24%87.72%85.47%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Akhisar Belediyespor (Visit)

Prediction 6.68%14.97fair odd
EV -6.45%
Edge -0.461%
Kelly -0.496%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 14.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.67%6.68%6.68%10.53%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
8.0011.2511.2514.0012.50%8.89%8.89%7.14%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 13.36%7.48fair odd
EV -3.11%
Edge -0.429%
Kelly -0.498%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.87%13.36%13.36%15.62%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
5.406.276.257.2518.52%15.95%16.00%13.79%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
FanDuel1.17I 85.47%NM 79.95%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV -6.45%E -0.461%K -0.496%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -6.45%E -0.922%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-26 17:34
SportsBet1.16I 86.21%NM 80.46%EV -7.25%E -6.25%K -45.33%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.67%EV -6.45%E -0.461%K -0.496%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.87%EV -3.11%E -0.429%K -0.498%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-26 15:50
Winamax (DE)1.15I 86.96%NM 75.79%EV -8.05%E -7.00%K -53.68%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.68%EV -39.86%E -4.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.53%EV -19.82%E -3.30%K -3.96%G +0.000%14.7%2026-07-26 15:50
Paddy Power1.14I 87.72%NM 79.17%EV -8.85%E -7.76%K -63.23%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.94%EV -13.14%E -1.01%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -13.14%E -2.02%K -2.39%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-26 19:10
Sky Bet1.14I 87.72%NM 76.34%EV -8.85%E -7.76%K -63.23%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.16%EV -36.52%E -3.84%K -4.30%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.50%EV -19.82%E -3.30%K -3.96%G +0.000%14.9%2026-07-26 15:49
Betclic (FR)1.14I 87.72%NM 75.34%EV -8.85%E -7.76%K -63.23%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.04%EV -36.52%E -3.84%K -4.30%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.62%EV -26.50%E -4.82%K -5.89%G +0.000%16.4%2026-07-26 15:49
Winamax (FR)1.14I 87.72%NM 73.88%EV -8.85%E -7.76%K -63.23%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.53%EV -46.54%E -5.82%K -6.65%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 15.60%EV -27.84%E -5.15%K -6.33%G +0.000%18.7%2026-07-26 15:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.13I 88.50%NM 79.32%EV -9.65%E -8.54%K -74.24%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.89%EV -13.14%E -1.01%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.79%EV -13.14%E -2.02%K -2.39%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-26 18:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%197.0%2026-07-26 19:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%197.0%2026-07-26 19:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%197.0%2026-07-26 19:25