Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Fenerbahce v Torku Konyaspor

Inicio: 2026-08-22 18:30 UTC

Final: Fenerbahce 4–2 Torku Konyaspor

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Fenerbahce (Local)

Predicción 72.62%1.38momio equitativo
EV -3.41%
Ventaja -2.56%
Kelly -10.33%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.33

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
69.79%72.56%72.59%74.69%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.221.281.281.3381.97%78.20%78.13%75.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Torku Konyaspor (Visitante)

Predicción 10.14%9.86momio equitativo
EV +9.50%
Ventaja +0.880%
Kelly +0.970%
Crecimiento +0.092%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 10.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
8.78%10.14%10.25%11.49%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
8.009.129.0010.8012.50%10.96%11.11%9.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 17.24%5.80momio equitativo
EV +2.56%
Ventaja +0.430%
Kelly +0.517%
Crecimiento +0.013%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.32%17.30%17.16%18.95%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.755.355.385.9521.05%18.70%18.57%16.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Fenerbahce (Local): 72.62%; Torku Konyaspor (Visitante): 10.14%; Empate: 17.24%. Para Torku Konyaspor (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 9.86. 8 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 10.80, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +9.50%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 74.69%EV -5.59%E -4.30%K -18.63%G +0.000%10.80I 9.26%NM 8.99%EV +9.50%E +0.880%K +0.970%G +0.092%5.95I 16.81%NM 16.32%EV +2.56%E +0.430%K +0.517%G +0.013%3.0%2026-08-22 13:39
Betsson🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.05%EV -9.22%E -7.38%K -36.88%G +0.000%10.54I 9.49%NM 8.78%EV +6.87%E +0.651%K +0.720%G +0.049%5.39I 18.55%NM 17.17%EV -7.09%E -1.32%K -1.62%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-22 15:09
NordicBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.05%EV -9.22%E -7.38%K -36.88%G +0.000%10.54I 9.49%NM 8.78%EV +6.87%E +0.651%K +0.720%G +0.049%5.39I 18.55%NM 17.17%EV -7.09%E -1.32%K -1.62%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-22 15:09
Pinnacle🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.48%EV -4.86%E -3.71%K -15.69%G +0.000%10.15I 9.85%NM 9.48%EV +2.91%E +0.287%K +0.318%G +0.009%5.65I 17.70%NM 17.04%EV -2.61%E -0.462%K -0.562%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-22 15:20
Coolbet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -6.31%E -4.90%K -21.78%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.53%EV +1.39%E +0.139%K +0.155%G +0.002%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.58%EV -0.888%E -0.155%K -0.187%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-22 11:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -7.04%E -5.50%K -25.15%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.48%EV +1.39%E +0.139%K +0.155%G +0.002%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.48%EV -0.888%E -0.155%K -0.187%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-22 13:09
Svenska Spel🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -7.04%E -5.50%K -25.15%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.48%EV +1.39%E +0.139%K +0.155%G +0.002%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.48%EV -0.888%E -0.155%K -0.187%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-22 13:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.90%EV -7.04%E -5.50%K -25.15%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.33%EV +1.39%E +0.139%K +0.155%G +0.002%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -9.51%E -1.81%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 09:50
SportsBet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.57%EV -6.31%E -4.90%K -21.78%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.60%EV -1.14%E -0.117%K -0.131%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.83%EV -9.51%E -1.81%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-22 15:04
Marathon Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.96%EV -7.77%E -6.12%K -28.77%G +0.000%9.70I 10.31%NM 9.55%EV -1.65%E -0.170%K -0.190%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.48%EV -8.65%E -1.63%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-22 13:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.57%EV -7.04%E -5.50%K -25.15%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.91%EV -3.68%E -0.387%K -0.433%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.52%EV -1.75%E -0.307%K -0.372%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-22 02:55
Fanatics🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.97%EV -6.31%E -4.90%K -21.78%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.91%EV -3.68%E -0.387%K -0.433%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -5.20%E -0.945%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-22 10:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.75%EV -6.31%E -4.90%K -21.78%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.74%EV -3.68%E -0.387%K -0.433%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -13.82%E -2.76%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-22 13:35
betfred_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -9.22%E -7.38%K -36.88%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -3.68%E -0.387%K -0.433%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -5.20%E -0.945%K -1.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-22 11:20
Bet Right🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.85%EV -8.49%E -6.74%K -32.67%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.66%EV -3.68%E -0.387%K -0.433%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.48%EV -9.51%E -1.81%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-22 11:19
GTbets🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.32%EV -9.22%E -7.38%K -36.88%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.65%EV -3.68%E -0.387%K -0.433%G +0.000%5.38I 18.59%NM 17.03%EV -7.27%E -1.35%K -1.66%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-22 08:24
Coral🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.37%EV -3.41%E -2.56%K -10.33%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.55%EV -8.75%E -0.972%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV -9.51%E -1.81%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-22 13:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.37%EV -3.41%E -2.56%K -10.33%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.55%EV -8.75%E -0.972%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV -9.51%E -1.81%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-22 13:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.42%EV -5.59%E -4.30%K -18.63%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -8.75%E -0.972%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -5.20%E -0.945%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-22 10:05
Betway🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.42%EV -5.59%E -4.30%K -18.63%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -8.75%E -0.972%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -5.20%E -0.945%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-22 14:35
DraftKings🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.68%EV -4.86%E -3.71%K -15.69%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.43%EV -8.75%E -0.972%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -9.51%E -1.81%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-22 11:13
FanDuel🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.27%EV -7.04%E -5.50%K -25.15%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -8.75%E -0.972%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -8.65%E -1.63%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-22 13:33
888sport🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.36%EV -6.31%E -4.90%K -21.78%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -8.75%E -0.972%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -13.82%E -2.76%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-22 08:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.36%EV -6.31%E -4.90%K -21.78%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -8.75%E -0.972%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -13.82%E -2.76%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-22 09:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.36%EV -6.31%E -4.90%K -21.78%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -8.75%E -0.972%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -13.82%E -2.76%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-22 08:59
BoyleSports🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.36%EV -6.31%E -4.90%K -21.78%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -8.75%E -0.972%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -13.82%E -2.76%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-22 14:40
TABtouch🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.82%EV -8.49%E -6.74%K -32.67%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -8.75%E -0.972%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -6.92%E -1.28%K -1.57%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-22 13:09
Unibet (NL)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.82%EV -8.49%E -6.74%K -32.67%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -8.75%E -0.972%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -6.92%E -1.28%K -1.57%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-22 13:09
Grosvenor🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.82%EV -8.49%E -6.74%K -32.67%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -8.75%E -0.972%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -6.92%E -1.28%K -1.57%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-22 13:09
Unibet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.82%EV -8.49%E -6.74%K -32.67%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -8.75%E -0.972%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -6.92%E -1.28%K -1.57%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-22 13:09
Casumo🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.82%EV -8.49%E -6.74%K -32.67%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -8.75%E -0.972%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -6.92%E -1.28%K -1.57%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-22 13:09
Unibet (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.82%EV -8.49%E -6.74%K -32.67%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -8.75%E -0.972%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -6.92%E -1.28%K -1.57%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-22 13:09
betPARX🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.82%EV -8.49%E -6.74%K -32.67%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -8.75%E -0.972%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -6.92%E -1.28%K -1.57%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-22 13:14
PMU (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.74%EV -9.22%E -7.38%K -36.88%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.10%EV -8.75%E -0.972%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.16%EV -8.65%E -1.63%K -2.01%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-22 13:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.74%EV -9.22%E -7.38%K -36.88%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.10%EV -8.75%E -0.972%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.16%EV -8.65%E -1.63%K -2.01%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-22 13:09
BetRivers🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.90%EV -9.95%E -8.02%K -41.44%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.04%EV -8.75%E -0.972%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.06%EV -8.65%E -1.63%K -2.01%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-22 13:09
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.00%EV -9.22%E -7.38%K -36.88%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -8.75%E -0.972%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -13.82%E -2.76%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-22 15:04
NetBet (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.74%EV -11.40%E -9.34%K -51.81%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.86%EV -8.75%E -0.972%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.40%EV -12.09%E -2.37%K -2.95%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-22 15:14
Codere (IT)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.32%EV -4.86%E -3.71%K -15.69%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.77%EV -10.78%E -1.22%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.92%EV -3.47%E -0.620%K -0.755%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-22 10:05
Bovada🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.94%EV -7.04%E -5.50%K -25.15%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.52%EV -11.28%E -1.29%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.54%EV -9.51%E -1.81%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-22 15:15
LowVig.ag🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.52%EV -3.41%E -2.56%K -10.33%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.19%EV -13.82%E -1.63%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -5.20%E -0.945%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-21 22:14
BetOnline.ag🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.52%EV -3.41%E -2.56%K -10.33%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.19%EV -13.82%E -1.63%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -5.20%E -0.945%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-21 22:14
BetUS🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.52%EV -3.41%E -2.56%K -10.33%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.19%EV -13.82%E -1.63%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -5.20%E -0.945%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 13:50
Neds🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.97%EV -4.14%E -3.13%K -12.93%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.02%EV -13.82%E -1.63%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.01%EV -10.37%E -1.99%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-22 13:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.97%EV -4.14%E -3.13%K -12.93%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.02%EV -13.82%E -1.63%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.01%EV -10.37%E -1.99%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-22 13:54
Betclic (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.07%EV -7.04%E -5.50%K -25.15%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV -13.82%E -1.63%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.08%EV -6.92%E -1.28%K -1.57%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-22 15:04
LiveScore Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.56%EV -11.40%E -9.34%K -51.81%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.41%EV -13.82%E -1.63%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.02%EV -10.37%E -1.99%K -2.47%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-22 13:09
Virgin Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.56%EV -11.40%E -9.34%K -51.81%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.41%EV -13.82%E -1.63%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.02%EV -10.37%E -1.99%K -2.47%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-22 13:09
Unibet (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.06%EV -8.49%E -6.74%K -32.67%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 10.81%EV -14.83%E -1.77%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.13%EV -8.65%E -1.63%K -2.01%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-22 10:04
Winamax (DE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.80%EV -7.04%E -5.50%K -25.15%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -18.89%E -2.36%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV -5.20%E -0.945%K -1.16%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-22 10:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.74%EV -7.77%E -6.12%K -28.77%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.39%EV -18.89%E -2.36%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.87%EV -6.92%E -1.28%K -1.57%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-22 10:15
Sky Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.79%EV -6.31%E -4.90%K -21.78%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.25%EV -18.89%E -2.36%K -2.70%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.95%EV -18.13%E -3.82%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-22 15:04
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎1.35I 74.07%NM 73.55%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.03%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.42%0.7%2026-08-22 15:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.35I 74.07%NM 73.55%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.03%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.42%0.7%2026-08-22 15:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.35I 74.07%NM 73.55%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.03%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.42%0.7%2026-08-22 15:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.35I 74.07%NM 73.55%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.03%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.42%0.7%2026-08-22 15:05
Matchbook◎1.35I 74.07%NM 73.55%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.03%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.42%0.7%2026-08-22 15:05
Kalshi◎1.33I 75.19%NM 73.57%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.79%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.64%2.2%2026-08-22 12:00