Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fatih Karagümrük v Alanyaspor

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

34%

37%

29%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fatih Karagümrük (Local)

Prediction 34.23%2.92fair odd

EV -5.20%

Edge -1.88%

Kelly -2.94%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

34.23%34.23%34.23%34.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.772.772.772.7736.10%36.10%36.10%36.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Alanyaspor (Visit)

Prediction 36.60%2.73fair odd

EV -5.20%

Edge -2.01%

Kelly -3.27%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

36.60%36.60%36.60%36.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.592.592.592.5938.61%38.61%38.61%38.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.17%3.43fair odd

EV -5.20%

Edge -1.60%

Kelly -2.31%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.17%29.17%29.17%29.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.253.253.253.2530.77%30.77%30.77%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fatih Karagümrük (Local): 34.23%; Alanyaspor (Visit): 36.60%; Draw: 29.17%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.43. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.25, with an expected value of -5.20%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	2.77I 36.10%NM 34.23%EV -5.20%E -1.88%K -2.94%G +0.000%	2.59I 38.61%NM 36.60%EV -5.20%E -2.01%K -3.27%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.17%EV -5.20%E -1.60%K -2.31%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-05-10 17:19

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.