The School of Odds
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Çaykur Rizespor v Samsunspor

Kickoff: 2026-03-18 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Çaykur Rizespor (Local)

Prediction 35.97%2.78fair odd
EV -3.24%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -1.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.37%35.98%36.08%36.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.572.602.6941.67%38.95%38.46%37.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Samsunspor (Visit)

Prediction 36.30%2.75fair odd
EV -4.16%
Edge -1.57%
Kelly -2.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.21%36.35%36.22%37.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.512.502.6442.55%39.80%40.00%37.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.72%3.61fair odd
EV -1.30%
Edge -0.365%
Kelly -0.508%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.32%27.67%27.70%29.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.273.273.5634.72%30.58%30.53%28.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Çaykur Rizespor (Local): 35.97%; Samsunspor (Visit): 36.30%; Draw: 27.72%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.61. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.56, with an expected value of -1.30%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 36.04%EV -3.24%E -1.20%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.72%EV -4.16%E -1.57%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.23%EV -1.30%E -0.365%K -0.508%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-16 16:45
Marathon Bet🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.08%EV -4.32%E -1.62%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.48%EV -9.60%E -3.86%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.74%E -1.69%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-15 17:35
FanDuel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.73%EV -4.68%E -1.76%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -5.61%E -2.16%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -5.74%E -1.69%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-16 18:04
Pinnacle🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.40%EV -5.76%E -2.20%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.12%EV -4.16%E -1.57%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.48%EV -3.80%E -1.09%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-16 18:00
SportsBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.44%EV -5.76%E -2.20%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.42%EV -7.42%E -2.91%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -8.51%E -2.58%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-16 11:45
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -5.76%E -2.20%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -9.24%E -3.70%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -11.28%E -3.53%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-15 19:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -5.76%E -2.20%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -9.24%E -3.70%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -11.28%E -3.53%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-15 19:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -5.76%E -2.20%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -9.24%E -3.70%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -11.28%E -3.53%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-15 19:15
Everygame🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.77%EV -6.47%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.47%EV -7.42%E -2.91%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -7.12%E -2.13%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-16 19:15
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -6.47%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -9.24%E -3.70%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -8.51%E -2.58%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-16 11:35
Fliff🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.24%EV -8.27%E -3.24%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.68%EV -11.05%E -4.51%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -11.28%E -3.53%K -5.13%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-17 00:04
Bovada🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 36.36%EV -8.63%E -3.40%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.07%EV -7.06%E -2.76%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -7.12%E -2.13%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-16 17:55
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -10.07%E -4.03%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -9.24%E -3.70%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -2.96%E -0.847%K -1.19%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-16 11:35
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.62%EV -10.07%E -4.03%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.21%EV -5.61%E -2.16%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -9.90%E -3.04%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-16 11:35
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.37%EV -10.07%E -4.03%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.10%EV -11.05%E -4.51%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -14.05%E -4.53%K -6.69%G +0.000%13.1%2026-03-16 11:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.37%EV -10.07%E -4.03%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.80%EV -12.87%E -5.36%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.83%EV -20.15%E -7.00%K -10.72%G +0.000%16.4%2026-03-16 11:34
NetBet (FR)🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 36.28%EV -12.95%E -5.35%K -9.12%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.84%EV -11.05%E -4.51%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.88%EV -12.67%E -4.02%K -5.89%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-16 17:09
PMU (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.61%EV -13.67%E -5.70%K -9.76%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.37%EV -14.69%E -6.25%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.02%EV -15.44%E -5.06%K -7.53%G +0.000%17.0%2026-03-16 18:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.39I 71.94%NM 27.78%1.04I 96.15%NM 37.12%1.10I 90.91%NM 35.10%159.0%2026-03-17 10:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.39I 71.94%NM 27.78%1.04I 96.15%NM 37.12%1.10I 90.91%NM 35.10%159.0%2026-03-17 10:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.39I 71.94%NM 27.03%1.04I 96.15%NM 36.13%1.02I 98.04%NM 36.84%166.1%2026-03-17 10:30