The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Çaykur Rizespor v Besiktas JK

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Çaykur Rizespor (Local)

Prediction 26.71%3.74fair odd
EV -3.59%
Edge -0.995%
Kelly -1.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.46%26.98%26.71%27.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.343.323.6132.79%29.93%30.12%27.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Besiktas JK (Visit)

Prediction 49.56%2.02fair odd
EV -2.37%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -2.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.78%49.32%49.56%50.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.841.851.9758.14%54.35%54.05%50.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.74%4.21fair odd
EV +0.403%
Edge +0.095%
Kelly +0.125%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 4.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.92%23.70%23.74%24.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.833.804.2328.17%26.10%26.32%23.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Çaykur Rizespor (Local): 26.71%; Besiktas JK (Visit): 49.56%; Draw: 23.74%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.21. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.23, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.403%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.61I 27.70%NM 26.85%EV -3.59%E -0.995%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.23%EV -4.35%E -2.25%K -4.68%G +0.000%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.92%EV +0.403%E +0.095%K +0.125%G +0.001%3.2%2026-05-10 16:29
Unibet (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -9.20%E -2.71%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.84%EV -8.32%E -4.50%K -9.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -5.06%E -1.26%K -1.69%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-10 17:30
Pinnacle🎯3.39I 29.50%NM 27.89%EV -9.47%E -2.79%K -3.96%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.99%EV -2.37%E -1.20%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.12%EV -6.96%E -1.77%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-11 01:05
Codere (IT)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -6.53%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.79%EV -7.82%E -4.20%K -9.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -7.43%E -1.91%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-10 16:29
Bovada🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -11.87%E -3.60%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.78%EV -4.35%E -2.25%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -9.80%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-11 01:09
Winamax (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.24%EV -14.54%E -4.54%K -6.61%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 49.52%EV -12.78%E -7.26%K -16.81%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.24%EV -10.99%E -2.93%K -4.00%G +0.000%14.7%2026-05-10 17:44
Betclic (FR)🎯3.32I 30.12%NM 26.47%EV -11.34%E -3.41%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 49.65%EV -12.28%E -6.94%K -15.95%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 23.88%EV -12.65%E -3.44%K -4.72%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-10 16:27
Unibet (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.54%EV -11.87%E -3.60%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 49.47%EV -12.28%E -6.94%K -15.95%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.99%EV -13.36%E -3.66%K -5.04%G +0.000%14.2%2026-05-10 16:29
Winamax (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 27.53%EV -18.55%E -6.08%K -9.05%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 48.82%EV -14.76%E -8.58%K -20.50%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 23.65%EV -15.74%E -4.43%K -6.17%G +0.000%19.1%2026-05-10 17:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.