Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Alanyaspor v Kocaelispor

2026-10-23 17:00 UTC — Turkey Super League

Resultado del partido

22 corredores (4 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Alanyaspor (Local)

Predicción 47.26%2.12momio equitativo
EV -2.17%
Ventaja -1.05%
Kelly -2.02%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.07

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.23%47.37%47.26%47.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.781.921.952.0756.18%52.01%51.28%48.31%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Kocaelispor (Visitante)

Predicción 23.51%4.25momio equitativo
EV -3.12%
Ventaja -0.757%
Kelly -1.00%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.12

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.81%24.48%23.51%27.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.353.893.924.1229.85%25.70%25.48%24.27%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 29.22%3.42momio equitativo
EV +10.46%
Ventaja +2.77%
Kelly +3.76%
Crecimiento +0.394%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.78

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.59%28.15%29.22%29.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.903.193.203.7834.48%31.37%31.25%26.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Alanyaspor (Local): 47.26%; Kocaelispor (Visitante): 23.51%; Empate: 29.22%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.42. 2 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 3.78, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +10.46%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (22 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
NordicBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.67%EV -7.84%E -4.02%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -21.23%E -6.34%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.59%EV +10.46%E +2.77%K +3.76%G +0.394%7.6%2026-10-16 17:15
Betsson🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.67%EV -7.84%E -4.02%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -21.23%E -6.34%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.59%EV +10.46%E +2.77%K +3.76%G +0.394%7.6%2026-10-16 17:20
1xBet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.91%EV -2.17%E -1.05%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.12I 24.27%NM 23.57%EV -3.12%E -0.757%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.52%EV -3.86%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-16 17:25
Unibet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.96%EV -7.84%E -4.02%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -3.59%E -0.876%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-16 17:15
Grosvenor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.96%EV -7.84%E -4.02%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -3.59%E -0.876%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-16 17:15
Casumo🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.96%EV -7.84%E -4.02%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -3.59%E -0.876%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-16 17:15
TABtouch🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.96%EV -7.84%E -4.02%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -3.59%E -0.876%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-16 17:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.96%EV -7.84%E -4.02%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -3.59%E -0.876%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-16 17:15
betPARX🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.96%EV -7.84%E -4.02%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -3.59%E -0.876%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-16 17:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.96%EV -7.84%E -4.02%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -3.59%E -0.876%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-16 17:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.96%EV -7.84%E -4.02%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -3.59%E -0.876%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-16 17:19
ATG (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.96%EV -7.84%E -4.02%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -3.59%E -0.876%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-16 17:19
Codere (IT)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.95%EV -6.42%E -3.24%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -7.12%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.51%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-16 17:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.62%EV -10.20%E -5.37%K -11.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.20%EV -8.29%E -2.13%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.18%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-16 17:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.62%EV -10.20%E -5.37%K -11.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.20%EV -8.29%E -2.13%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.18%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-16 17:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 47.75%EV -10.67%E -5.65%K -11.99%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.14%EV -8.29%E -2.13%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-16 17:50
BetRivers🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.88%EV -11.15%E -5.93%K -12.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.08%EV -8.29%E -2.13%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.04%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-16 17:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.65%EV -11.15%E -5.93%K -12.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.97%EV -8.29%E -2.13%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.37%EV -10.87%E -3.56%K -5.30%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-16 17:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 46.76%EV -11.15%E -5.93%K -12.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.42%EV -15.35%E -4.26%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.82%EV -10.87%E -3.56%K -5.30%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-16 17:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 46.97%EV -11.62%E -6.21%K -13.35%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 23.55%EV -12.29%E -3.30%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 29.48%EV -12.92%E -4.33%K -6.52%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-16 17:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 47.97%EV -15.87%E -8.92%K -20.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.08%EV -13.00%E -3.51%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.95%EV -13.79%E -4.68%K -7.07%G +0.000%17.1%2026-10-16 17:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 46.23%EV -13.98%E -7.68%K -17.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.75%EV -20.05%E -5.90%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.02%EV -15.26%E -5.26%K -8.03%G +0.000%18.8%2026-10-16 17:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Arbitraje (20 combinaciones) +0.97%1xBet 2.07 (48.8%) / 1xBet 4.12 (24.5%) / NordicBet 3.78 (26.7%)Ver las 20 combinaciones
Alanyaspor (Local)Kocaelispor (Visitante)EmpateMargen
1xBet🎯 2.07 (48.8%)1xBet🎯 4.12 (24.5%)NordicBet🎯 3.78 (26.7%)+0.973%
1xBet🎯 2.07 (48.8%)1xBet🎯 4.12 (24.5%)Betsson🎯 3.78 (26.7%)+0.973%
1xBet🎯 2.07 (48.7%)Unibet🎯 4.10 (24.6%)NordicBet🎯 3.78 (26.7%)+0.853%
1xBet🎯 2.07 (48.7%)Unibet🎯 4.10 (24.6%)Betsson🎯 3.78 (26.7%)+0.853%
1xBet🎯 2.07 (48.7%)Grosvenor🎯 4.10 (24.6%)NordicBet🎯 3.78 (26.7%)+0.853%
1xBet🎯 2.07 (48.7%)Grosvenor🎯 4.10 (24.6%)Betsson🎯 3.78 (26.7%)+0.853%
1xBet🎯 2.07 (48.7%)Casumo🎯 4.10 (24.6%)NordicBet🎯 3.78 (26.7%)+0.853%
1xBet🎯 2.07 (48.7%)Casumo🎯 4.10 (24.6%)Betsson🎯 3.78 (26.7%)+0.853%
1xBet🎯 2.07 (48.7%)TABtouch🎯 4.10 (24.6%)NordicBet🎯 3.78 (26.7%)+0.853%
1xBet🎯 2.07 (48.7%)TABtouch🎯 4.10 (24.6%)Betsson🎯 3.78 (26.7%)+0.853%
1xBet🎯 2.07 (48.7%)Unibet (NL)🎯 4.10 (24.6%)NordicBet🎯 3.78 (26.7%)+0.853%
1xBet🎯 2.07 (48.7%)Unibet (NL)🎯 4.10 (24.6%)Betsson🎯 3.78 (26.7%)+0.853%
1xBet🎯 2.07 (48.7%)betPARX🎯 4.10 (24.6%)NordicBet🎯 3.78 (26.7%)+0.853%
1xBet🎯 2.07 (48.7%)betPARX🎯 4.10 (24.6%)Betsson🎯 3.78 (26.7%)+0.853%
1xBet🎯 2.07 (48.7%)Svenska Spel🎯 4.10 (24.6%)NordicBet🎯 3.78 (26.7%)+0.853%
1xBet🎯 2.07 (48.7%)Svenska Spel🎯 4.10 (24.6%)Betsson🎯 3.78 (26.7%)+0.853%
1xBet🎯 2.07 (48.7%)Unibet (SE)🎯 4.10 (24.6%)NordicBet🎯 3.78 (26.7%)+0.853%
1xBet🎯 2.07 (48.7%)Unibet (SE)🎯 4.10 (24.6%)Betsson🎯 3.78 (26.7%)+0.853%
1xBet🎯 2.07 (48.7%)ATG (SE)🎯 4.10 (24.6%)NordicBet🎯 3.78 (26.7%)+0.853%
1xBet🎯 2.07 (48.7%)ATG (SE)🎯 4.10 (24.6%)Betsson🎯 3.78 (26.7%)+0.853%