The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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FC Zurich v FC Luzern

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 16:00 UTC

Final: FC Zurich 2–1 FC Luzern

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

46 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Zurich (Local)

Prediction 33.97%2.94fair odd
EV -1.49%
Edge -0.515%
Kelly -0.786%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.68%34.19%33.94%36.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.672.652.9042.02%37.47%37.74%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Luzern (Visit)

Prediction 41.70%2.40fair odd
EV -1.59%
Edge -0.674%
Kelly -1.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.85%41.53%41.63%43.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.222.242.3648.78%45.10%44.74%42.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.33%4.11fair odd
EV -1.94%
Edge -0.481%
Kelly -0.640%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.47%24.29%24.42%25.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.783.804.0328.17%26.45%26.32%24.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Zurich (Local): 33.97%; FC Luzern (Visit): 41.70%; Draw: 24.33%. For FC Zurich (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.94. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.90, with an expected value of -1.49%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.37%EV -1.49%E -0.515%K -0.786%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.63%EV -5.34%E -2.35%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 24.01%EV -1.94%E -0.481%K -0.640%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-24 15:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.68%EV -1.49%E -0.515%K -0.786%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.70%EV -7.43%E -3.35%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.62%EV -6.32%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-24 15:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.68%EV -1.49%E -0.515%K -0.786%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.70%EV -7.43%E -3.35%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.62%EV -6.32%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-24 15:50
FanDuel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -3.19%E -1.12%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -8.26%E -3.76%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -5.10%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-24 15:44
Tipico (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -3.19%E -1.12%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.54%EV -8.26%E -3.76%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -7.53%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-24 15:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.60%EV -4.89%E -1.75%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.63%EV -5.76%E -2.55%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.76%EV -7.53%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 15:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -4.89%E -1.75%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.60%EV -6.18%E -2.75%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.96%EV -8.75%E -2.33%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-24 15:45
BetMGM🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.95%EV -6.59%E -2.40%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.49%EV -6.18%E -2.75%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -7.53%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 15:45
SportsBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.30%EV -6.59%E -2.40%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.60%EV -10.35%E -4.81%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.10%EV -7.53%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-24 15:50
PlayUp🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.98%EV -6.59%E -2.40%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.18%EV -10.35%E -4.81%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.85%EV -11.18%E -3.06%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-24 15:45
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -6.59%E -2.40%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.17%EV -12.43%E -5.92%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.86%EV -7.53%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-24 15:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -6.59%E -2.40%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.17%EV -12.43%E -5.92%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.86%EV -7.53%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-24 15:50
GTbets🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 34.73%EV -7.27%E -2.66%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.18%EV -1.59%E -0.674%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.09%EV -8.02%E -2.12%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-24 15:45
LeoVegas🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.02%EV -8.29%E -3.07%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.82%EV -6.18%E -2.75%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.16%EV -11.18%E -3.06%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-24 15:55
betano_uk🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.92%EV -8.29%E -3.07%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.60%EV -10.35%E -4.81%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -5.10%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-24 15:50
Bet Victor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.92%EV -8.29%E -3.07%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.60%EV -10.35%E -4.81%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -5.10%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-24 15:53
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.94%EV -8.29%E -3.07%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.35%EV -12.43%E -5.92%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.71%EV -12.40%E -3.44%K -4.77%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-24 15:54
Bovada🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 34.71%EV -9.65%E -3.63%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 40.67%EV -5.34%E -2.35%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -8.75%E -2.33%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 15:34
Coolbet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -9.99%E -3.77%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.42%EV -2.01%E -0.854%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV -2.67%E -0.667%K -0.889%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 15:45
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -9.99%E -3.77%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -4.09%E -1.78%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -7.53%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-24 15:45
TABtouch🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -9.99%E -3.77%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.77%EV -4.93%E -2.16%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.15%EV -6.32%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 15:55
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -9.99%E -3.77%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.77%EV -4.93%E -2.16%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.15%EV -6.32%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 15:55
Grosvenor🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -9.99%E -3.77%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.77%EV -4.93%E -2.16%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.15%EV -6.32%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 15:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -9.99%E -3.77%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.77%EV -4.93%E -2.16%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.15%EV -6.32%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 15:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -9.99%E -3.77%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.77%EV -4.93%E -2.16%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.15%EV -6.32%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 15:55
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -9.99%E -3.77%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.77%EV -4.93%E -2.16%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.15%EV -6.32%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 15:55
betPARX🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -9.99%E -3.77%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.77%EV -4.93%E -2.16%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.15%EV -6.32%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 15:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -9.99%E -3.77%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.77%EV -4.93%E -2.16%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.15%EV -6.32%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 15:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -9.99%E -3.77%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.77%EV -4.93%E -2.16%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.15%EV -6.32%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 15:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.34%EV -9.99%E -3.77%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.33%EV -10.35%E -4.81%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.33%EV -5.10%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-24 15:45
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.24%EV -9.99%E -3.77%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.95%EV -12.43%E -5.92%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.81%EV -13.62%E -3.84%K -5.34%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-24 15:45
Neds🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.85%EV -10.66%E -4.06%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.41%EV -10.35%E -4.81%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.73%EV -12.40%E -3.44%K -4.77%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-24 15:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.85%EV -10.66%E -4.06%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.41%EV -10.35%E -4.81%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.73%EV -12.40%E -3.44%K -4.77%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-24 15:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.94%EV -11.00%E -4.20%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.36%EV -10.35%E -4.81%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.70%EV -12.40%E -3.44%K -4.77%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-24 15:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.75%EV -11.68%E -4.49%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -4.09%E -1.78%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -5.10%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 15:45
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.10%EV -11.68%E -4.49%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -6.18%E -2.75%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.34%EV -8.75%E -2.33%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 15:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.22%EV -11.68%E -4.49%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.37%EV -12.43%E -5.92%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.41%EV -7.53%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-24 15:45
NetBet (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.12%EV -11.68%E -4.49%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 40.89%EV -9.51%E -4.38%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.99%EV -13.62%E -3.84%K -5.34%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-24 15:55
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.09%EV -13.38%E -5.25%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.01%EV -4.09%E -1.78%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -6.32%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 15:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.11%EV -13.38%E -5.25%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.69%EV -8.26%E -3.76%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -9.97%E -2.69%K -3.69%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-24 15:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.86%EV -13.38%E -5.25%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.78%EV -9.10%E -4.17%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.36%EV -11.18%E -3.06%K -4.22%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-24 15:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.86%EV -13.38%E -5.25%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.78%EV -9.10%E -4.17%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.36%EV -11.18%E -3.06%K -4.22%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-24 15:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.86%EV -13.38%E -5.25%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.78%EV -9.10%E -4.17%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.36%EV -11.18%E -3.06%K -4.22%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-24 15:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -15.08%E -6.03%K -10.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.13%EV -6.18%E -2.75%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.76%EV -7.53%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-24 15:45
BetRivers🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.79%EV -16.78%E -6.85%K -11.57%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.85%EV -3.26%E -1.40%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.36%EV -9.97%E -2.69%K -3.69%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-20 12:50
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 35.88%EV -19.16%E -8.05%K -13.88%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 41.65%EV -14.52%E -7.08%K -13.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.47%EV -7.53%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%17.1%2026-10-24 15:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.13%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.66%0.6%2026-10-24 15:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.13%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.66%0.6%2026-10-24 15:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.13%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.66%0.6%2026-10-24 15:55
Matchbook◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.94%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.96%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.10%1.2%2026-10-24 15:55
Smarkets◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.81%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.18%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.01%1.6%2026-10-24 15:55