La escuela de los momios

FC Winterthur v FC Thun

Inicio: 2026-02-25 18:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

FC Winterthur (Local)

Predicción 16.14%6.19momio equitativo
EV +4.94%
Ventaja +0.760%
Kelly +0.898%
Crecimiento +0.044%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.17%16.13%16.19%17.60%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.005.655.506.5020.00%17.69%18.18%15.38%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

FC Thun (Visitante)

Predicción 64.49%1.55momio equitativo
EV -3.91%
Ventaja -2.62%
Kelly -7.98%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.49

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
61.43%64.48%64.46%66.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.301.431.441.4976.92%69.73%69.44%67.11%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 19.37%5.16momio equitativo
EV +1.67%
Ventaja +0.318%
Kelly +0.393%
Crecimiento +0.007%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.20%19.40%19.35%22.93%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.754.604.605.2526.67%21.75%21.74%19.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
PointsBet (AU)6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV +4.94%E +0.760%K +0.898%G +0.044%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.22%EV -9.71%E -6.94%K -24.29%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -8.01%E -1.69%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-25 17:05
Bet Right6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV +4.94%E +0.760%K +0.898%G +0.044%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -9.71%E -6.94%K -24.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -10.92%E -2.37%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-25 17:04
1xBet6.30I 15.87%NM 14.85%EV +1.71%E +0.272%K +0.323%G +0.006%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.42%EV -7.78%E -5.44%K -18.09%G +0.000%4.74I 21.10%NM 19.74%EV -8.21%E -1.73%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-25 17:54
Betr (AU)6.25I 16.00%NM 14.46%EV +0.904%E +0.145%K +0.172%G +0.002%1.38I 72.46%NM 65.47%EV -11.00%E -7.97%K -28.96%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -12.85%E -2.86%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.7%2026-02-25 17:04
Tipico (DE)6.20I 16.13%NM 15.08%EV +0.097%E +0.016%K +0.019%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.84%EV -8.42%E -5.93%K -20.06%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV -5.11%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-25 17:45
Marathon Bet6.15I 16.26%NM 15.16%EV -0.710%E -0.115%K -0.138%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.21%EV -7.78%E -5.44%K -18.09%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -8.01%E -1.69%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-25 17:29
GTbets6.11I 16.37%NM 15.41%EV -1.36%E -0.222%K -0.265%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.38%EV -7.13%E -4.95%K -16.22%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.21%EV -5.11%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-25 17:45
BetOnline.ag6.00I 16.67%NM 15.92%EV -3.13%E -0.522%K -0.626%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.49%E -4.48%K -14.42%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.20%EV +1.67%E +0.318%K +0.393%G +0.007%4.7%2026-02-25 16:45
LowVig.ag6.00I 16.67%NM 15.92%EV -3.13%E -0.522%K -0.626%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.49%E -4.48%K -14.42%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.20%EV +1.67%E +0.318%K +0.393%G +0.007%4.7%2026-02-25 16:45
Codere (IT)6.00I 16.67%NM 15.79%EV -3.13%E -0.522%K -0.626%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.88%EV -5.85%E -4.00%K -12.71%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.33%EV -5.11%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-25 17:30
BetMGM6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -3.13%E -0.522%K -0.626%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.60%EV -7.78%E -5.44%K -18.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -3.17%E -0.634%K -0.793%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-25 16:44
FanDuel6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -3.13%E -0.522%K -0.626%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.25%EV -8.42%E -5.93%K -20.06%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.30%EV -7.04%E -1.47%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-25 16:59
Bet Victor6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -3.13%E -0.522%K -0.626%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.03%EV -9.71%E -6.94%K -24.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -10.92%E -2.37%K -3.03%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-25 16:48
SportsBet6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -3.13%E -0.522%K -0.626%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.75%EV -9.71%E -6.94%K -24.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -12.85%E -2.86%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.3%2026-02-25 17:30
Pinnacle5.90I 16.95%NM 16.36%EV -4.75%E -0.804%K -0.969%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.76%EV -3.91%E -2.62%K -7.98%G +0.000%5.11I 19.57%NM 18.88%EV -1.04%E -0.204%K -0.253%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-25 17:55
DraftKings5.75I 17.39%NM 16.50%EV -7.17%E -1.25%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.53%EV -5.20%E -3.54%K -11.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.97%EV -3.17%E -0.634%K -0.793%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-25 17:45
Unibet (UK)5.75I 17.39%NM 16.22%EV -7.17%E -1.25%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.34%EV -6.49%E -4.48%K -14.42%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -7.04%E -1.47%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-25 17:25
PlayUp5.75I 17.39%NM 15.73%EV -7.17%E -1.25%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 63.71%EV -8.42%E -5.93%K -20.06%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.56%EV -14.79%E -3.36%K -4.35%G +0.000%10.5%2026-02-25 17:54
BetUS5.70I 17.54%NM 16.34%EV -7.98%E -1.40%K -1.70%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.66%EV -7.13%E -4.95%K -16.22%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.00%EV -5.11%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-25 17:50
Betsson5.70I 17.54%NM 16.24%EV -7.98%E -1.40%K -1.70%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.28%EV -7.13%E -4.95%K -16.22%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -8.01%E -1.69%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-25 17:25
NordicBet5.70I 17.54%NM 16.24%EV -7.98%E -1.40%K -1.70%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.28%EV -7.13%E -4.95%K -16.22%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -8.01%E -1.69%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-25 17:25
Bovada5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -11.20%E -2.04%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.03%EV -7.13%E -4.95%K -16.22%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.21%EV -7.04%E -1.47%K -1.85%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-25 17:44
BetAnything5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -11.20%E -2.04%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.03%EV -7.13%E -4.95%K -16.22%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.21%EV -7.04%E -1.47%K -1.85%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-25 17:45
Fanatics5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -11.20%E -2.04%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.90%EV -7.13%E -4.95%K -16.22%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -8.01%E -1.69%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-25 17:35
LeoVegas5.50I 18.18%NM 16.72%EV -11.20%E -2.04%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.14%EV -4.56%E -3.08%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.14%EV -15.76%E -3.62%K -4.70%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-25 17:25
Grosvenor5.50I 18.18%NM 16.72%EV -11.20%E -2.04%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.14%EV -4.56%E -3.08%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.14%EV -15.76%E -3.62%K -4.70%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-25 17:24
Casumo5.50I 18.18%NM 16.72%EV -11.20%E -2.04%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.14%EV -4.56%E -3.08%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.14%EV -15.76%E -3.62%K -4.70%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-25 17:24
Unibet (SE)5.50I 18.18%NM 16.72%EV -11.20%E -2.04%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.14%EV -4.56%E -3.08%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.14%EV -15.76%E -3.62%K -4.70%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-25 17:25
Unibet (NL)5.50I 18.18%NM 16.72%EV -11.20%E -2.04%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.14%EV -4.56%E -3.08%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.14%EV -15.76%E -3.62%K -4.70%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-25 17:25
TABtouch5.50I 18.18%NM 16.72%EV -11.20%E -2.04%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.14%EV -4.56%E -3.08%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.14%EV -15.76%E -3.62%K -4.70%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-25 17:25
BetRivers5.50I 18.18%NM 16.72%EV -11.20%E -2.04%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.14%EV -4.56%E -3.08%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.14%EV -15.76%E -3.62%K -4.70%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-25 17:25
Virgin Bet5.50I 18.18%NM 16.72%EV -11.20%E -2.04%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.14%EV -4.56%E -3.08%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.14%EV -15.76%E -3.62%K -4.70%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-25 17:25
LeoVegas (SE)5.50I 18.18%NM 16.72%EV -11.20%E -2.04%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.14%EV -4.56%E -3.08%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.14%EV -15.76%E -3.62%K -4.70%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-25 17:25
Unibet5.50I 18.18%NM 16.72%EV -11.20%E -2.04%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.14%EV -4.56%E -3.08%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.14%EV -15.76%E -3.62%K -4.70%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-25 17:24
Svenska Spel5.50I 18.18%NM 16.72%EV -11.20%E -2.04%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.14%EV -4.56%E -3.08%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.14%EV -15.76%E -3.62%K -4.70%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-25 17:25
betPARX5.50I 18.18%NM 16.72%EV -11.20%E -2.04%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.14%EV -4.56%E -3.08%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.14%EV -15.76%E -3.62%K -4.70%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-25 17:25
ATG (SE)5.50I 18.18%NM 16.72%EV -11.20%E -2.04%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.14%EV -4.56%E -3.08%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.14%EV -15.76%E -3.62%K -4.70%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-25 17:25
888sport5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -11.20%E -2.04%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.50%EV -7.13%E -4.95%K -16.22%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -10.92%E -2.37%K -3.03%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-25 17:30
William Hill5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -11.20%E -2.04%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.50%EV -7.13%E -4.95%K -16.22%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -10.92%E -2.37%K -3.03%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-25 17:30
888sport (SE)5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -11.20%E -2.04%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.50%EV -7.13%E -4.95%K -16.22%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -10.92%E -2.37%K -3.03%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-25 17:30
Mr Green (SE)5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -11.20%E -2.04%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.50%EV -7.13%E -4.95%K -16.22%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -10.92%E -2.37%K -3.03%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-25 17:30
Ladbrokes (UK)5.50I 18.18%NM 16.33%EV -11.20%E -2.04%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.15%EV -9.71%E -6.94%K -24.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.52%EV -10.92%E -2.37%K -3.03%G +0.000%11.3%2026-02-25 16:40
Neds5.50I 18.18%NM 16.33%EV -11.20%E -2.04%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.15%EV -9.71%E -6.94%K -24.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.52%EV -10.92%E -2.37%K -3.03%G +0.000%11.3%2026-02-25 16:40
Ladbrokes (AU)5.50I 18.18%NM 16.33%EV -11.20%E -2.04%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.15%EV -9.71%E -6.94%K -24.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.52%EV -10.92%E -2.37%K -3.03%G +0.000%11.3%2026-02-25 16:40
Coral5.50I 18.18%NM 16.33%EV -11.20%E -2.04%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.15%EV -9.71%E -6.94%K -24.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.52%EV -10.92%E -2.37%K -3.03%G +0.000%11.3%2026-02-25 16:40
Betclic (FR)5.50I 18.18%NM 16.26%EV -11.20%E -2.04%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.87%EV -9.71%E -6.94%K -24.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.87%EV -12.85%E -2.86%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.8%2026-02-25 17:34
Paddy Power5.50I 18.18%NM 16.26%EV -11.20%E -2.04%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.87%EV -9.71%E -6.94%K -24.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.87%EV -12.85%E -2.86%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.8%2026-02-25 17:30
Sky Bet5.50I 18.18%NM 16.13%EV -11.20%E -2.04%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.38%EV -9.71%E -6.94%K -24.29%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.49%EV -16.15%E -3.73%K -4.85%G +0.000%12.7%2026-02-25 16:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)5.50I 18.18%NM 15.64%EV -11.20%E -2.04%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 61.43%EV -9.71%E -6.94%K -24.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.93%EV -27.38%E -7.30%K -9.96%G +0.000%16.3%2026-02-25 17:00
Winamax (DE)5.40I 18.52%NM 16.87%EV -12.82%E -2.37%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.15%EV -8.42%E -5.93%K -20.06%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.98%EV -7.04%E -1.47%K -1.85%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-25 17:25
LiveScore Bet5.40I 18.52%NM 16.87%EV -12.82%E -2.37%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 61.95%EV -5.20%E -3.54%K -11.06%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.18%EV -16.73%E -3.89%K -5.07%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-25 17:25
Parions Sport (FR)5.40I 18.52%NM 16.40%EV -12.82%E -2.37%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 63.70%EV -10.36%E -7.45%K -26.56%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 19.90%EV -13.82%E -3.11%K -4.01%G +0.000%12.9%2026-02-25 17:35
NetBet (FR)5.40I 18.52%NM 16.12%EV -12.82%E -2.37%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 64.96%EV -13.58%E -10.14%K -39.95%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.92%EV -10.92%E -2.37%K -3.03%G +0.000%14.9%2026-02-25 17:55
PMU (FR)5.40I 18.52%NM 15.45%EV -12.82%E -2.37%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 64.19%EV -16.16%E -12.43%K -53.88%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.35%EV -20.60%E -5.02%K -6.65%G +0.000%19.8%2026-02-25 17:30
Betway5.25I 19.05%NM 17.46%EV -15.24%E -2.90%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.23%EV -6.49%E -4.48%K -14.42%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.30%EV -8.01%E -1.69%K -2.14%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-25 17:50
Everygame5.25I 19.05%NM 17.39%EV -15.24%E -2.90%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.39%EV -7.13%E -4.95%K -16.22%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.22%EV -8.01%E -1.69%K -2.14%G +0.000%9.5%2026-02-25 17:30
Winamax (FR)5.10I 19.61%NM 17.23%EV -17.66%E -3.46%K -4.31%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 63.23%EV -10.36%E -7.45%K -26.56%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.53%EV -12.85%E -2.86%K -3.67%G +0.000%13.8%2026-02-25 17:24
BoyleSports5.00I 20.00%NM 17.60%EV -19.28%E -3.86%K -4.82%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 62.85%EV -9.71%E -6.94%K -24.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.55%EV -12.85%E -2.86%K -3.67%G +0.000%13.7%2026-02-25 17:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)6.60I 15.15%NM 15.06%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.83%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.11%0.6%2026-02-25 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)6.60I 15.15%NM 15.06%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.83%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.11%0.6%2026-02-25 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)6.60I 15.15%NM 15.06%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.83%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.11%0.6%2026-02-25 17:55
Matchbook6.60I 15.15%NM 14.94%1.50I 66.67%NM 65.73%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.33%1.4%2026-02-25 17:55
Smarkets6.40I 15.63%NM 15.40%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.27%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.33%1.5%2026-02-25 17:45