Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

FC Winterthur v FC Lausanne-Sport

Inicio: 2026-05-09 16:02 UTC

Final: FC Winterthur 2–1 FC Lausanne-Sport

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

FC Winterthur (Local)

Predicción 36.97%2.70momio equitativo
EV +1.67%
Ventaja +0.608%
Kelly +0.956%
Crecimiento +0.016%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.61%36.76%37.06%38.07%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.302.552.502.7543.48%39.19%40.00%36.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

FC Lausanne-Sport (Visitante)

Predicción 37.36%2.68momio equitativo
EV -2.10%
Ventaja -0.803%
Kelly -1.30%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.62

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.21%37.49%37.32%41.07%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.232.412.402.6244.84%41.55%41.67%38.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.66%3.90momio equitativo
EV -1.97%
Ventaja -0.515%
Kelly -0.698%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.82

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.73%25.74%25.62%28.13%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.573.603.8233.33%28.01%27.78%26.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: FC Winterthur (Local): 36.97%; FC Lausanne-Sport (Visitante): 37.36%; Empate: 25.66%. Para FC Winterthur (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.70. 11 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.75, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.67%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.91%EV +1.67%E +0.608%K +0.956%G +0.016%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.89%EV -14.81%E -6.49%K -11.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -5.05%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 15:59
Unibet (NL)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.91%EV +1.67%E +0.608%K +0.956%G +0.016%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.89%EV -14.81%E -6.49%K -11.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -5.05%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 16:00
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.91%EV +1.67%E +0.608%K +0.956%G +0.016%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.89%EV -14.81%E -6.49%K -11.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -5.05%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 16:00
TABtouch🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.91%EV +1.67%E +0.608%K +0.956%G +0.016%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.89%EV -14.81%E -6.49%K -11.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -5.05%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 16:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.91%EV +1.67%E +0.608%K +0.956%G +0.016%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.89%EV -14.81%E -6.49%K -11.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -5.05%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 16:00
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.91%EV +1.67%E +0.608%K +0.956%G +0.016%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.89%EV -14.81%E -6.49%K -11.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -5.05%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 15:59
Unibet (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.91%EV +1.67%E +0.608%K +0.956%G +0.016%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.89%EV -14.81%E -6.49%K -11.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -5.05%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 16:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.91%EV +1.67%E +0.608%K +0.956%G +0.016%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.89%EV -14.81%E -6.49%K -11.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -5.05%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 16:00
betPARX🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.91%EV +1.67%E +0.608%K +0.956%G +0.016%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.89%EV -14.81%E -6.49%K -11.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -5.05%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 16:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.91%EV +1.67%E +0.608%K +0.956%G +0.016%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.89%EV -14.81%E -6.49%K -11.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -5.05%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 16:00
BetRivers🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.61%EV +1.67%E +0.608%K +0.956%G +0.016%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.07%EV -15.93%E -7.08%K -12.74%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.32%EV -6.33%E -1.73%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-09 15:58
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.02%EV -0.175%E -0.065%K -0.103%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.82%EV -15.93%E -7.08%K -12.74%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.16%EV -6.33%E -1.73%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-09 16:00
LeoVegas🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.02%EV -0.175%E -0.065%K -0.103%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.82%EV -15.93%E -7.08%K -12.74%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.16%EV -6.33%E -1.73%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-09 16:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.78%EV -0.175%E -0.065%K -0.103%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.89%EV -16.68%E -7.48%K -13.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -7.61%E -2.11%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-09 16:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.78%EV -0.175%E -0.065%K -0.103%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.89%EV -16.68%E -7.48%K -13.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -7.61%E -2.11%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-09 15:59
GTbets🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 35.33%EV -0.545%E -0.203%K -0.323%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.48%EV -7.71%E -3.12%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.18%EV -6.84%E -1.89%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 15:58
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%EV -3.87%E -1.49%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.92%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -5.05%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-09 15:59
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -3.87%E -1.49%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -8.46%E -3.45%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-09 15:59
Pinnacle🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 37.34%EV -4.24%E -1.64%K -2.67%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 37.34%EV -3.22%E -1.25%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.32%EV -1.97%E -0.515%K -0.698%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-09 15:59
BetOnline.ag🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 37.06%EV -5.35%E -2.09%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.21%EV -2.10%E -0.803%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.73%EV -8.90%E -2.51%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-09 16:00
LowVig.ag🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 37.06%EV -5.35%E -2.09%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.21%EV -2.10%E -0.803%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.73%EV -8.90%E -2.51%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-09 15:59
BetUS🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 37.06%EV -5.35%E -2.09%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.21%EV -2.10%E -0.803%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.73%EV -8.90%E -2.51%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-09 15:59
BetAnything🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 37.06%EV -5.35%E -2.09%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.21%EV -2.10%E -0.803%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.73%EV -8.90%E -2.51%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-09 15:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.92%EV -5.72%E -2.24%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.92%EV -4.72%E -1.85%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -7.61%E -2.11%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 15:59
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.92%EV -5.72%E -2.24%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.92%EV -4.72%E -1.85%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -7.61%E -2.11%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 16:00
1xBet🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 36.92%EV -6.46%E -2.55%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 36.92%EV -5.47%E -2.16%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.16%EV -8.38%E -2.35%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-09 15:59
Marathon Bet🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 36.89%EV -6.46%E -2.55%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.78%EV -7.10%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-09 16:00
FanDuel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -7.57%E -3.03%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -7.61%E -2.11%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-09 15:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.09%EV -7.57%E -3.03%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -8.46%E -3.45%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -5.05%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-09 15:59
Bet Right🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -7.57%E -3.03%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.20%EV -10.32%E -4.30%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.12%EV -6.33%E -1.73%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-09 15:59
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -7.57%E -3.03%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -8.46%E -3.45%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-09 15:59
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -7.57%E -3.03%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -10.32%E -4.30%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -7.61%E -2.11%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-09 15:59
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -7.57%E -3.03%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -11.07%E -4.65%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -12.75%E -3.75%K -5.31%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-09 15:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -7.57%E -3.03%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -11.07%E -4.65%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -12.75%E -3.75%K -5.31%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-09 15:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.84%EV -7.57%E -3.03%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.81%EV -11.45%E -4.83%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -12.75%E -3.75%K -5.31%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-09 15:59
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.84%EV -7.57%E -3.03%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.81%EV -11.45%E -4.83%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -12.75%E -3.75%K -5.31%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-09 16:00
Betsson🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.19%EV -8.31%E -3.35%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.19%EV -7.34%E -2.96%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.62%EV -7.61%E -2.11%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-09 15:59
NordicBet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.19%EV -8.31%E -3.35%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.19%EV -7.34%E -2.96%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.62%EV -7.61%E -2.11%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-09 16:00
888sport🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -9.42%E -3.84%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-09 15:59
William Hill🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -9.42%E -3.84%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-09 15:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -9.42%E -3.84%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-09 15:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -9.42%E -3.84%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-09 15:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -9.42%E -3.84%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -8.46%E -3.45%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -7.61%E -2.11%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-09 16:00
Bet Victor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -9.42%E -3.84%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -8.46%E -3.45%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -7.61%E -2.11%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-09 15:59
Everygame🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -9.42%E -3.84%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -8.46%E -3.45%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -7.61%E -2.11%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-09 15:59
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.04%EV -9.42%E -3.84%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.04%EV -8.46%E -3.45%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-09 16:00
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.04%EV -9.42%E -3.84%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.04%EV -8.46%E -3.45%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-09 16:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.02%EV -9.42%E -3.84%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.79%EV -10.32%E -4.30%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -7.61%E -2.11%K -2.93%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-09 15:59
Unibet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.16%EV -9.42%E -3.84%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.52%EV -14.06%E -6.11%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.31%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-09 15:59
Betclic (FR)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.77%EV -10.16%E -4.18%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.70%EV -11.45%E -4.83%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-09 15:56
NetBet (FR)🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 36.30%EV -10.53%E -4.35%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 37.86%EV -13.31%E -5.74%K -10.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.84%EV -12.75%E -3.75%K -5.31%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-09 15:59
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -11.27%E -4.69%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -7.61%E -2.11%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-09 16:00
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.23%EV -11.27%E -4.69%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.23%EV -10.32%E -4.30%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-09 15:59
Sky Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -11.27%E -4.69%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -10.32%E -4.30%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -12.75%E -3.75%K -5.31%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-09 16:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.17%EV -11.27%E -4.69%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 36.70%EV -14.06%E -6.11%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.13%EV -23.01%E -7.67%K -11.51%G +0.000%18.5%2026-05-09 16:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.30%EV -13.12%E -5.58%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.30%EV -12.19%E -5.19%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.41%EV -11.46%E -3.32%K -4.68%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-09 16:00
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.63%EV -14.96%E -6.51%K -11.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.63%EV -14.06%E -6.11%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.73%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%15.5%2026-05-09 16:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.66I 37.59%NM 37.06%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.34%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.60%1.4%2026-05-09 16:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.66I 37.59%NM 37.06%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.34%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.60%1.4%2026-05-09 16:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.66I 37.59%NM 37.06%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.34%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.60%1.4%2026-05-09 16:00
Matchbook2.66I 37.59%NM 37.06%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.34%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.60%1.4%2026-05-09 16:00
Smarkets2.66I 37.59%NM 36.93%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.21%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.85%1.8%2026-05-09 16:00