The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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FC Thun v Servette

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 14:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Thun (Local)

Prediction 33.76%2.96fair odd
EV -5.47%
Edge -1.95%
Kelly -3.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.62%33.76%33.76%33.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.742.802.8038.02%36.47%35.71%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Servette (Visit)

Prediction 41.04%2.44fair odd
EV -6.43%
Edge -2.82%
Kelly -5.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.04%41.04%41.04%41.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.242.282.2846.51%44.69%43.86%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.20%3.97fair odd
EV -5.50%
Edge -1.47%
Kelly -2.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.10%25.20%25.20%25.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.673.753.7528.57%27.26%26.67%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Thun (Local): 33.76%; Servette (Visit): 41.04%; Draw: 25.20%. For FC Thun (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.96. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.80, with an expected value of -5.47%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Grosvenor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -5.47%E -1.95%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.28%EV -6.43%E -2.82%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -5.50%E -1.47%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-19 11:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -5.47%E -1.95%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.28%EV -6.43%E -2.82%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -5.50%E -1.47%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-19 11:20
Casumo🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -5.47%E -1.95%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.28%EV -6.43%E -2.82%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -5.50%E -1.47%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-19 11:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -5.47%E -1.95%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.28%EV -6.43%E -2.82%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -5.50%E -1.47%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-19 11:20
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -5.47%E -1.95%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.28%EV -6.43%E -2.82%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -5.50%E -1.47%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-19 11:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -5.47%E -1.95%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.28%EV -6.43%E -2.82%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -5.50%E -1.47%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-19 11:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -5.47%E -1.95%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.28%EV -6.43%E -2.82%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -5.50%E -1.47%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-19 11:20
betPARX🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -5.47%E -1.95%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.28%EV -6.43%E -2.82%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -5.50%E -1.47%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-19 13:20
TABtouch🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -5.47%E -1.95%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.28%EV -6.43%E -2.82%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -5.50%E -1.47%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-19 14:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.76%EV -10.54%E -3.98%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.04%EV -10.54%E -4.83%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.20%EV -10.54%E -2.97%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-19 11:20
BetRivers🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.76%EV -10.54%E -3.98%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.04%EV -10.54%E -4.83%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.20%EV -10.54%E -2.97%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-19 14:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.62%EV -11.21%E -4.26%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.12%EV -11.77%E -5.47%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.26%EV -11.80%E -3.37%K -4.72%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-19 11:15
PMU (FR)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.62%EV -11.21%E -4.26%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.12%EV -11.77%E -5.47%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.26%EV -11.80%E -3.37%K -4.72%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-19 11:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.62%EV -11.21%E -4.26%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.12%EV -11.77%E -5.47%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.26%EV -11.80%E -3.37%K -4.72%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-19 11:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.