The School of Odds
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FC Sion v FC Lugano

2026-08-30 12:00 UTC — Swiss Superleague

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Sion (Local)

Prediction 42.84%2.33fair odd
EV -4.90%
Edge -2.21%
Kelly -4.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.56%42.78%42.92%43.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.142.152.2250.00%46.66%46.51%45.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Lugano (Visit)

Prediction 29.82%3.35fair odd
EV -0.115%
Edge -0.034%
Kelly -0.049%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.41%29.95%29.56%31.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.023.003.3535.71%33.11%33.33%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.35%3.66fair odd
EV -1.56%
Edge -0.432%
Kelly -0.599%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.48%27.27%27.52%28.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.383.403.6031.75%29.55%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: FC Sion (Local): 42.84%; FC Lugano (Visit): 29.82%; Draw: 27.35%. For FC Lugano (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.354. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.350, with an expected value of -0.115%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.89%EV -4.90%E -2.21%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -0.115%E -0.034%K -0.049%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.68%EV -9.21%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-23 14:25
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -5.76%E -2.62%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -7.57%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -1.56%E -0.432%K -0.599%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-23 14:54
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -5.76%E -2.62%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -10.55%E -3.52%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -4.29%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-23 14:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -5.76%E -2.62%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -10.55%E -3.52%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -4.29%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-23 15:05
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -5.76%E -2.62%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -13.53%E -4.67%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-23 14:25
1xBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.02%EV -6.61%E -3.03%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.40%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-23 14:25
SportsBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.18%EV -6.61%E -3.03%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -12.04%E -4.08%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -5.66%E -1.64%K -2.31%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 14:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.80%EV -7.04%E -3.25%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.48%EV -6.08%E -1.93%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.72%EV -8.39%E -2.51%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-23 17:39
Marathon Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.21%EV -7.47%E -3.46%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.35%EV -5.18%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 14:25
Bovada🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.74%EV -7.47%E -3.46%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -3.10%E -0.953%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -12.49%E -3.90%K -5.68%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-23 15:19
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -7.90%E -3.67%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -4.59%E -1.43%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 14:34
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -7.90%E -3.67%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -14.13%E -4.91%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -1.56%E -0.432%K -0.599%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-23 14:19
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -7.90%E -3.67%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -14.13%E -4.91%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -1.56%E -0.432%K -0.599%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-23 14:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -7.90%E -3.67%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -14.13%E -4.91%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -1.56%E -0.432%K -0.599%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-23 14:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -7.90%E -3.67%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -14.13%E -4.91%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -1.56%E -0.432%K -0.599%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-23 14:19
LeoVegas🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -7.90%E -3.67%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -7.57%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.76%E -2.96%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-23 18:39
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -7.90%E -3.67%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -7.57%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.76%E -2.96%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-23 15:34
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.90%E -3.67%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -10.55%E -3.52%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-23 18:04
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.52%EV -7.90%E -3.67%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.99%EV -12.04%E -4.08%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.50%EV -5.66%E -1.64%K -2.31%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-23 16:49
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -7.90%E -3.67%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -7.57%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -11.13%E -3.42%K -4.95%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-23 18:39
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -7.90%E -3.67%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -7.57%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -11.13%E -3.42%K -4.95%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-23 15:34
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -7.90%E -3.67%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -13.53%E -4.67%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-23 14:55
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.56%EV -10.04%E -4.78%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.17%EV -16.51%E -5.90%K -9.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.27%EV -12.49%E -3.90%K -5.68%G +0.000%14.6%2026-08-23 14:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.51%EV -12.18%E -5.94%K -11.60%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 29.05%EV -8.46%E -2.76%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.44%EV -11.13%E -3.42%K -4.95%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-23 18:38
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.78%EV -12.18%E -5.94%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.24%EV -13.53%E -4.67%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.98%EV -11.13%E -3.42%K -4.95%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-23 15:34
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.29%EV -14.32%E -7.16%K -14.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.06%EV -14.13%E -4.91%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.64%EV -11.13%E -3.42%K -4.95%G +0.000%15.5%2026-08-23 14:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.80%EV -14.32%E -7.16%K -14.32%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.03%EV -15.02%E -5.27%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.17%EV -13.86%E -4.40%K -6.45%G +0.000%16.8%2026-08-23 15:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.04I 49.02%NM 42.15%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.65%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.19%16.3%2026-08-23 15:34
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-08-23 15:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-08-23 15:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-23 14:50