FC Luzern v FC Thun

2026-07-25 18:30 — Swiss Superleague

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (7 in analysis)

Option 1: FC Luzern (Local)

Odds

2.2544.44%Min

2.4441.02%Mean

2.4840.32%Median

2.5339.53%Max

Consensus probabilities

36.55%2.736Min

38.23%2.616Max

37.20%2.688Mean

37.11%2.695Median

37.12%2.694IQM

37.31%2.681Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.53 under the IQM model: 37.12%

EV -6.09%Edge -2.41%Kelly -3.98%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: FC Thun (Visit)

Odds

2.1546.51%Min

2.3542.47%Mean

2.4041.67%Median

2.4540.82%Max

Consensus probabilities

38.07%2.627Min

39.17%2.553Max

38.42%2.603Mean

38.35%2.608Median

38.38%2.606IQM

38.49%2.598Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.45 under the IQM model: 38.38%

EV -5.98%Edge -2.44%Kelly -4.12%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds

3.5028.57%Min

3.7226.90%Mean

3.7027.03%Median

4.2023.81%Max

Consensus probabilities

22.76%4.394Min

25.38%3.940Max

24.38%4.102Mean

24.54%4.074Median

24.50%4.081IQM

24.21%4.131Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 4.20 under the IQM model: 24.50%

EV +2.92%Edge +0.695%Kelly +0.912%Growth +0.027%

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	FC Luzern (Local)	FC Thun (Visit)	Draw ▼	Margin	Updated
Coolbet	2.50I 40.00% NM 38.23%EV -7.20% E -2.88% K -4.80% G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82% NM 39.01%EV -5.98% E -2.44% K -4.12% G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81% NM 22.76%EV +2.92% E +0.695% K +0.912% G +0.027%	4.6%	2026-07-02 12:55
FanDuel	2.45I 40.82% NM 37.97%EV -9.06% E -3.70% K -6.25% G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67% NM 38.77%EV -7.89% E -3.29% K -5.64% G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00% NM 23.26%EV -1.98% E -0.495% K -0.660% G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-06-30 20:18
SportsBet	2.45I 40.82% NM 37.44%EV -9.06% E -3.70% K -6.25% G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55% NM 39.04%EV -9.81% E -4.18% K -7.27% G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64% NM 23.52%EV -4.43% E -1.14% K -1.53% G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-06-30 16:19
Codere (IT)	2.50I 40.00% NM 37.10%EV -7.20% E -2.88% K -4.80% G +0.000%	2.41I 41.49% NM 38.49%EV -7.51% E -3.12% K -5.33% G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32% NM 24.41%EV -6.88% E -1.81% K -2.46% G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-06-30 16:20
Paddy Power	2.40I 41.67% NM 37.38%EV -10.92% E -4.55% K -7.80% G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48% NM 39.01%EV -11.73% E -5.10% K -9.02% G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32% NM 23.61%EV -6.88% E -1.81% K -2.46% G +0.000%	11.5%	2026-06-30 16:19
NordicBet	2.48I 40.32% NM 37.11%EV -7.95% E -3.20% K -5.37% G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67% NM 38.35%EV -7.89% E -3.29% K -5.64% G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67% NM 24.54%EV -8.11% E -2.16% K -2.95% G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-06-30 18:49
Betsson	2.48I 40.32% NM 37.11%EV -7.95% E -3.20% K -5.37% G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67% NM 38.35%EV -7.89% E -3.29% K -5.64% G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67% NM 24.54%EV -8.11% E -2.16% K -2.95% G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-06-30 18:49
1xBet	2.53I 39.53% NM 36.85%EV -6.09% E -2.41% K -3.98% G +0.000%	2.44I 40.98% NM 38.21%EV -6.36% E -2.61% K -4.42% G +0.000%	3.74I 26.74% NM 24.93%EV -8.35% E -2.23% K -3.05% G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-07-01 03:09
Marathon Bet	2.53I 39.53% NM 36.85%EV -6.09% E -2.41% K -3.98% G +0.000%	2.44I 40.98% NM 38.21%EV -6.36% E -2.61% K -4.42% G +0.000%	3.74I 26.74% NM 24.93%EV -8.35% E -2.23% K -3.05% G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-07-01 03:08
LeoVegas	2.40I 41.67% NM 37.45%EV -10.92% E -4.55% K -7.80% G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55% NM 38.25%EV -9.81% E -4.18% K -7.27% G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03% NM 24.29%EV -9.33% E -2.52% K -3.46% G +0.000%	11.2%	2026-07-02 10:19
Winamax (DE)	2.30I 43.48% NM 37.70%EV -14.63% E -6.36% K -11.25% G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44% NM 38.54%EV -13.65% E -6.07% K -10.92% G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40% NM 23.76%EV -10.56% E -2.89% K -3.98% G +0.000%	15.3%	2026-06-30 16:29
William Hill	2.50I 40.00% NM 36.55%EV -7.20% E -2.88% K -4.80% G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67% NM 38.07%EV -7.89% E -3.29% K -5.64% G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78% NM 25.38%EV -11.78% E -3.27% K -4.53% G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-06-30 17:00
888sport	2.50I 40.00% NM 36.55%EV -7.20% E -2.88% K -4.80% G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67% NM 38.07%EV -7.89% E -3.29% K -5.64% G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78% NM 25.38%EV -11.78% E -3.27% K -4.53% G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-06-30 18:30
Fanatics	2.50I 40.00% NM 36.55%EV -7.20% E -2.88% K -4.80% G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67% NM 38.07%EV -7.89% E -3.29% K -5.64% G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78% NM 25.38%EV -11.78% E -3.27% K -4.53% G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-07-01 03:20
888sport (SE)	2.50I 40.00% NM 36.55%EV -7.20% E -2.88% K -4.80% G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67% NM 38.07%EV -7.89% E -3.29% K -5.64% G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78% NM 25.38%EV -11.78% E -3.27% K -4.53% G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-06-30 18:29
Mr Green (SE)	2.50I 40.00% NM 36.55%EV -7.20% E -2.88% K -4.80% G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67% NM 38.07%EV -7.89% E -3.29% K -5.64% G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78% NM 25.38%EV -11.78% E -3.27% K -4.53% G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-06-30 18:40
BoyleSports	2.25I 44.44% NM 37.43%EV -16.48% E -7.33% K -13.19% G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51% NM 39.17%EV -17.49% E -8.13% K -15.21% G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78% NM 23.39%EV -11.78% E -3.27% K -4.53% G +0.000%	18.7%	2026-07-01 02:49
Betclic (FR)	2.37I 42.19% NM 36.51%EV -12.03% E -5.08% K -8.78% G +0.000%	2.22I 45.05% NM 38.98%EV -14.80% E -6.67% K -12.13% G +0.000%	3.53I 28.33% NM 24.51%EV -13.50% E -3.82% K -5.34% G +0.000%	15.6%	2026-06-30 16:19
Sky Bet	2.30I 43.48% NM 37.32%EV -14.63% E -6.36% K -11.25% G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44% NM 38.15%EV -13.65% E -6.07% K -10.92% G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57% NM 24.53%EV -14.23% E -4.07% K -5.69% G +0.000%	16.5%	2026-06-30 18:39
Winamax (FR)	2.25I 44.44% NM 37.18%EV -16.48% E -7.33% K -13.19% G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51% NM 38.91%EV -17.49% E -8.13% K -15.21% G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57% NM 23.90%EV -14.23% E -4.07% K -5.69% G +0.000%	19.5%	2026-06-30 18:49

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	FC Luzern (Local)	FC Thun (Visit)	Draw	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)	1.04I 96.15%	1.04I 96.15%	1.02I 98.04%	190.3%	2026-07-01 07:29
Betfair Exchange (UK)	1.04I 96.15%	1.04I 96.15%	1.02I 98.04%	190.3%	2026-07-01 07:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)	1.04I 96.15%	1.04I 96.15%	1.02I 98.04%	190.3%	2026-07-01 07:29