La escuela de los momios

Varbergs BoIS v Norrby IF

Inicio: 2026-06-10 17:00 UTC

Final: Varbergs BoIS 2–0 Norrby IF

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

47 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Varbergs BoIS (Local)

Predicción 56.75%1.76momio equitativo
EV -4.66%
Ventaja -2.77%
Kelly -6.85%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.68

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.36%56.77%56.70%59.28%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.521.631.621.6865.79%61.51%61.73%59.52%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Norrby IF (Visitante)

Predicción 18.78%5.32momio equitativo
EV -0.463%
Ventaja -0.087%
Kelly -0.108%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.00%18.72%18.72%19.89%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.504.814.755.3022.22%20.80%21.05%18.87%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 24.47%4.09momio equitativo
EV -4.57%
Ventaja -1.17%
Kelly -1.58%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.71%24.51%24.58%26.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.203.723.783.9031.25%26.85%26.46%25.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (47 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle1.68I 59.52%NM 56.50%EV -4.66%E -2.77%K -6.85%G +0.000%5.18I 19.31%NM 18.32%EV -2.72%E -0.525%K -0.650%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.18%EV -7.75%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-10 16:50
LeoVegas (SE)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.04%EV -4.66%E -2.77%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV -10.79%E -2.27%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -4.57%E -1.17%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-10 16:50
Unibet (SE)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.04%EV -4.66%E -2.77%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV -10.79%E -2.27%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -4.57%E -1.17%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-10 16:50
Svenska Spel1.68I 59.52%NM 56.04%EV -4.66%E -2.77%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV -10.79%E -2.27%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -4.57%E -1.17%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-10 16:50
ATG (SE)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.04%EV -4.66%E -2.77%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV -10.79%E -2.27%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -4.57%E -1.17%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-10 16:50
DraftKings1.67I 59.88%NM 56.57%EV -5.23%E -3.13%K -7.80%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -6.10%E -1.22%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.54%EV -5.80%E -1.51%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-10 16:50
Betway1.67I 59.88%NM 55.65%EV -5.23%E -3.13%K -7.80%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.57%EV -10.79%E -2.27%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -8.24%E -2.20%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-10 16:49
BetOnline.ag1.65I 60.61%NM 56.89%EV -6.36%E -3.86%K -9.79%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.41%EV -4.22%E -0.827%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -7.02%E -1.85%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-10 16:50
LowVig.ag1.65I 60.61%NM 56.89%EV -6.36%E -3.86%K -9.79%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.41%EV -4.22%E -0.827%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -7.02%E -1.85%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-10 16:50
1xBet1.65I 60.61%NM 56.52%EV -6.36%E -3.86%K -9.79%G +0.000%4.96I 20.16%NM 18.80%EV -6.85%E -1.38%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.67%EV -7.51%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-10 16:50
BetUS1.64I 60.98%NM 56.21%EV -6.93%E -4.22%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.21%EV -9.85%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -8.24%E -2.20%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-10 16:49
Bovada1.64I 60.98%NM 56.21%EV -6.93%E -4.22%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.21%EV -9.85%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -8.24%E -2.20%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-10 16:49
BetAnything1.64I 60.98%NM 56.21%EV -6.93%E -4.22%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.21%EV -9.85%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -8.24%E -2.20%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-10 16:50
Grosvenor1.64I 60.98%NM 56.16%EV -6.93%E -4.22%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -11.73%E -2.50%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -7.02%E -1.85%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-10 16:50
Unibet (NL)1.64I 60.98%NM 56.16%EV -6.93%E -4.22%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -11.73%E -2.50%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -7.02%E -1.85%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-10 16:50
Unibet1.64I 60.98%NM 56.16%EV -6.93%E -4.22%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -11.73%E -2.50%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -7.02%E -1.85%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-10 16:50
TABtouch1.64I 60.98%NM 56.16%EV -6.93%E -4.22%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -11.73%E -2.50%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -7.02%E -1.85%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-10 16:50
LeoVegas1.64I 60.98%NM 56.16%EV -6.93%E -4.22%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -11.73%E -2.50%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -7.02%E -1.85%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-10 16:50
Virgin Bet1.64I 60.98%NM 56.16%EV -6.93%E -4.22%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -11.73%E -2.50%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -7.02%E -1.85%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-10 16:49
Casumo1.64I 60.98%NM 56.16%EV -6.93%E -4.22%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -11.73%E -2.50%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -7.02%E -1.85%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-10 16:50
betPARX1.64I 60.98%NM 56.16%EV -6.93%E -4.22%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -11.73%E -2.50%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -7.02%E -1.85%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-10 16:49
Marathon Bet1.63I 61.35%NM 56.91%EV -7.50%E -4.60%K -11.90%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -6.10%E -1.22%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.54%EV -7.51%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-10 16:50
BetRivers1.63I 61.35%NM 56.08%EV -7.50%E -4.60%K -11.90%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -13.61%E -2.96%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -7.02%E -1.85%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.4%2026-06-10 16:50
NordicBet1.62I 61.73%NM 57.21%EV -8.06%E -4.98%K -13.01%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.72%EV -7.04%E -1.42%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.07%EV -5.80%E -1.51%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-10 16:49
Betsson1.62I 61.73%NM 57.21%EV -8.06%E -4.98%K -13.01%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.72%EV -7.04%E -1.42%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.07%EV -5.80%E -1.51%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-10 16:50
Unibet (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.13%EV -8.06%E -4.98%K -13.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -6.10%E -1.22%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.36%EV -7.02%E -1.85%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-10 16:50
PointsBet (AU)1.62I 61.73%NM 56.58%EV -8.06%E -4.98%K -13.01%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.30%EV -10.79%E -2.27%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -7.02%E -1.85%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.1%2026-06-10 16:49
BetMGM1.62I 61.73%NM 56.40%EV -8.06%E -4.98%K -13.01%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.24%EV -10.79%E -2.27%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -8.24%E -2.20%K -3.00%G +0.000%9.4%2026-06-10 16:49
Everygame1.62I 61.73%NM 56.37%EV -8.06%E -4.98%K -13.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -6.10%E -1.22%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.37%EV -11.91%E -3.31%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.5%2026-06-10 16:49
William Hill1.62I 61.73%NM 55.54%EV -8.06%E -4.98%K -13.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.75%EV -9.85%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.71%EV -14.36%E -4.10%K -5.74%G +0.000%11.1%2026-06-10 16:49
betfred_uk1.62I 61.73%NM 55.49%EV -8.06%E -4.98%K -13.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.54%EV -13.61%E -2.96%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -11.91%E -3.31%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.2%2026-06-10 16:50
FanDuel1.61I 62.11%NM 57.89%EV -8.63%E -5.36%K -14.15%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.59%EV -0.463%E -0.087%K -0.108%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -7.02%E -1.85%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-10 16:49
Bet Victor1.61I 62.11%NM 57.64%EV -8.63%E -5.36%K -14.15%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.56%EV -6.10%E -1.22%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -4.57%E -1.17%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-10 16:49
888sport1.61I 62.11%NM 55.70%EV -8.63%E -5.36%K -14.15%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.68%EV -9.85%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.62%EV -14.36%E -4.10%K -5.74%G +0.000%11.5%2026-06-10 16:50
888sport (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 55.70%EV -8.63%E -5.36%K -14.15%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.68%EV -9.85%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.62%EV -14.36%E -4.10%K -5.74%G +0.000%11.5%2026-06-10 16:50
Mr Green (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 55.70%EV -8.63%E -5.36%K -14.15%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.68%EV -9.85%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.62%EV -14.36%E -4.10%K -5.74%G +0.000%11.5%2026-06-10 16:50
PlayUp1.60I 62.50%NM 56.52%EV -9.20%E -5.75%K -15.33%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.04%EV -10.79%E -2.27%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -9.47%E -2.56%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.6%2026-06-10 15:00
Betr (AU)1.60I 62.50%NM 56.41%EV -9.20%E -5.75%K -15.33%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.20%EV -11.73%E -2.50%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.39%EV -9.47%E -2.56%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-10 16:49
LiveScore Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 55.93%EV -9.20%E -5.75%K -15.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -15.49%E -3.44%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.19%EV -9.47%E -2.56%K -3.51%G +0.000%11.7%2026-06-10 16:50
Coral1.60I 62.50%NM 55.93%EV -9.20%E -5.75%K -15.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -15.49%E -3.44%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.19%EV -9.47%E -2.56%K -3.51%G +0.000%11.7%2026-06-10 16:50
Ladbrokes (UK)1.60I 62.50%NM 55.93%EV -9.20%E -5.75%K -15.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -15.49%E -3.44%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.19%EV -9.47%E -2.56%K -3.51%G +0.000%11.7%2026-06-10 16:50
Sky Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 55.74%EV -9.20%E -5.75%K -15.33%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.78%EV -10.79%E -2.27%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -14.36%E -4.10%K -5.74%G +0.000%12.1%2026-06-10 16:50
BoyleSports1.60I 62.50%NM 55.17%EV -9.20%E -5.75%K -15.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.61%EV -15.49%E -3.44%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.22%EV -14.36%E -4.10%K -5.74%G +0.000%13.3%2026-06-10 16:50
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69%NM 57.14%EV -10.90%E -6.94%K -19.12%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -6.10%E -1.22%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -11.91%E -3.31%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.5%2026-06-10 16:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 54.36%EV -10.90%E -6.94%K -19.12%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.97%EV -15.49%E -3.44%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.67%EV -21.70%E -6.78%K -9.86%G +0.000%17.2%2026-06-10 16:50
SportsBet1.55I 64.52%NM 56.11%EV -12.04%E -7.77%K -21.88%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.31%EV -10.79%E -2.27%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.58%EV -16.81%E -4.94%K -7.00%G +0.000%15.0%2026-06-10 16:50
Tipico (DE)1.52I 65.79%NM 59.28%EV -13.74%E -9.04%K -26.42%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.00%EV -0.463%E -0.087%K -0.108%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.71%EV -7.02%E -1.85%K -2.51%G +0.000%11.0%2026-06-10 16:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.70I 58.82%NM 58.56%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.16%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.28%0.5%2026-06-10 16:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.59%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.88%0.5%2026-06-10 16:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.71I 58.48%NM 57.89%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.37%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.0%2026-06-10 16:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.71I 58.48%NM 57.89%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.37%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.0%2026-06-10 16:50