Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Östersunds FK v GIF Sundsvall

Inicio: 2026-08-07 17:00 UTC

Final: Östersunds FK 1–0 GIF Sundsvall

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

48 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Östersunds FK (Local)

Predicción 66.00%1.52momio equitativo
EV -2.98%
Ventaja -2.02%
Kelly -6.33%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.47

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
63.16%65.93%66.02%68.37%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.321.401.401.4775.76%71.43%71.43%68.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

GIF Sundsvall (Visitante)

Predicción 12.51%7.99momio equitativo
EV +8.13%
Ventaja +0.940%
Kelly +1.06%
Crecimiento +0.086%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 8.64

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
10.98%12.66%12.46%14.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
6.007.037.008.6416.67%14.22%14.29%11.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 21.48%4.65momio equitativo
EV -2.26%
Ventaja -0.496%
Kelly -0.635%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.06%21.42%21.52%22.35%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.004.244.264.5525.00%23.58%23.47%21.98%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Östersunds FK (Local): 66.00%; GIF Sundsvall (Visitante): 12.51%; Empate: 21.48%. Para GIF Sundsvall (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 7.99. 8 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 8.64, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +8.13%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (48 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.80%EV -6.28%E -4.42%K -14.94%G +0.000%8.64I 11.57%NM 10.98%EV +8.13%E +0.940%K +1.06%G +0.086%4.27I 23.42%NM 22.22%EV -8.27%E -1.94%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 16:51
DraftKings🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.66%EV -6.28%E -4.42%K -14.94%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV +0.116%E +0.015%K +0.017%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.51%EV -5.48%E -1.24%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-07 16:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.64%EV -7.60%E -5.43%K -18.99%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV +0.116%E +0.015%K +0.017%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -7.63%E -1.77%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-07 16:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.64%EV -7.60%E -5.43%K -18.99%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV +0.116%E +0.015%K +0.017%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -7.63%E -1.77%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-07 16:55
BetUS🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.64%EV -7.60%E -5.43%K -18.99%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV +0.116%E +0.015%K +0.017%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -7.63%E -1.77%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-07 16:56
BetAnything🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.64%EV -7.60%E -5.43%K -18.99%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV +0.116%E +0.015%K +0.017%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -7.63%E -1.77%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-07 16:55
FanDuel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -10.24%E -7.53%K -28.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV +0.116%E +0.015%K +0.017%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -3.33%E -0.740%K -0.951%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-07 16:35
betano_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -10.24%E -7.53%K -28.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV +0.116%E +0.015%K +0.017%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -3.33%E -0.740%K -0.951%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-07 16:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.37%EV -12.88%E -9.75%K -40.24%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.57%EV -2.39%E -0.306%K -0.351%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.06%EV -3.33%E -0.740%K -0.951%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-07 16:35
Coolbet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.20%EV -4.96%E -3.44%K -11.26%G +0.000%7.70I 12.99%NM 12.38%EV -3.64%E -0.473%K -0.543%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.42%EV -4.40%E -0.990%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-07 06:55
1xBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.07%EV -6.94%E -4.92%K -16.92%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.26%EV -4.89%E -0.643%K -0.741%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.67%EV -7.63%E -1.77%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-07 16:55
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.45%EV -7.60%E -5.43%K -18.99%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -6.14%E -0.819%K -0.945%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -5.48%E -1.24%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-07 16:34
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.36%EV -12.22%E -9.18%K -37.02%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.95%EV -6.14%E -0.819%K -0.945%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.69%EV -6.98%E -1.61%K -2.10%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-07 16:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.36%EV -12.22%E -9.18%K -37.02%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.95%EV -6.14%E -0.819%K -0.945%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.69%EV -6.98%E -1.61%K -2.10%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-07 16:45
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.73%EV -10.24%E -7.53%K -28.43%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.92%EV -6.14%E -0.819%K -0.945%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.35%EV -14.07%E -3.52%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-07 16:30
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.73%EV -10.24%E -7.53%K -28.43%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.92%EV -6.14%E -0.819%K -0.945%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.35%EV -14.07%E -3.52%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-07 16:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.73%EV -10.24%E -7.53%K -28.43%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.92%EV -6.14%E -0.819%K -0.945%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.35%EV -14.07%E -3.52%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-07 16:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.73%EV -10.24%E -7.53%K -28.43%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.92%EV -6.14%E -0.819%K -0.945%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.35%EV -14.07%E -3.52%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-07 16:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.69%EV -6.94%E -4.92%K -16.92%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.52%EV -7.39%E -0.999%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.79%EV -8.70%E -2.05%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-07 16:59
NordicBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.53%EV -6.94%E -4.92%K -16.92%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.85%EV -8.64%E -1.18%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.62%EV -2.26%E -0.496%K -0.635%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-07 16:55
Betsson🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.53%EV -6.94%E -4.92%K -16.92%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.85%EV -8.64%E -1.18%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.62%EV -2.26%E -0.496%K -0.635%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-07 16:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.86%EV -6.28%E -4.42%K -14.94%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -12.40%E -1.77%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -3.33%E -0.740%K -0.951%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-07 16:40
Betway🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.73%EV -5.62%E -3.93%K -13.06%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.22%EV -12.40%E -1.77%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.04%EV -9.77%E -2.33%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-07 16:31
Bovada🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.55%EV -7.60%E -5.43%K -18.99%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.11%EV -12.40%E -1.77%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.34%EV -7.63%E -1.77%K -2.31%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-07 16:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.38%EV -7.60%E -5.43%K -18.99%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.08%EV -12.40%E -1.77%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.54%EV -8.70%E -2.05%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-07 16:45
LeoVegas🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.30%EV -10.24%E -7.53%K -28.43%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.88%EV -12.40%E -1.77%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.82%EV -6.98%E -1.61%K -2.10%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-07 16:56
Sky Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.87%EV -10.24%E -7.53%K -28.43%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -12.40%E -1.77%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -9.77%E -2.33%K -3.05%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-07 16:35
SportsBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 65.86%EV -11.56%E -8.62%K -33.99%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.61%EV -12.40%E -1.77%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.53%EV -11.92%E -2.91%K -3.85%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-07 16:40
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.33%EV -7.60%E -5.43%K -18.99%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.55%EV -15.53%E -2.30%K -2.70%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.12%EV -6.98%E -1.61%K -2.10%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-07 15:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.90%EV -7.60%E -5.43%K -18.99%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.46%EV -15.53%E -2.30%K -2.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.63%EV -9.77%E -2.33%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-07 16:55
PlayUp🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.56%EV -7.60%E -5.43%K -18.99%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.39%EV -15.53%E -2.30%K -2.70%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.05%EV -11.92%E -2.91%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-07 16:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.77%EV -2.98%E -2.02%K -6.33%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.42%EV -18.66%E -2.87%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -7.63%E -1.77%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-07 16:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.77%EV -2.98%E -2.02%K -6.33%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.42%EV -18.66%E -2.87%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -7.63%E -1.77%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-07 16:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.77%EV -2.98%E -2.02%K -6.33%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.42%EV -18.66%E -2.87%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -7.63%E -1.77%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-07 16:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.77%EV -2.98%E -2.02%K -6.33%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.42%EV -18.66%E -2.87%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -7.63%E -1.77%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-07 16:15
betfred_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.57%EV -7.60%E -5.43%K -18.99%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -18.66%E -2.87%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -9.77%E -2.33%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-07 16:56
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.57%EV -7.60%E -5.43%K -18.99%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -18.66%E -2.87%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -9.77%E -2.33%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-07 15:35
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.57%EV -7.60%E -5.43%K -18.99%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -18.66%E -2.87%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -9.77%E -2.33%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-07 15:30
Unibet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.16%EV -5.62%E -3.93%K -13.06%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.81%EV -23.66%E -3.88%K -4.64%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -11.92%E -2.91%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-06 09:00
Grosvenor🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.16%EV -5.62%E -3.93%K -13.06%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.81%EV -23.66%E -3.88%K -4.64%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -11.92%E -2.91%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-06 09:00
Casumo🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.16%EV -5.62%E -3.93%K -13.06%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.81%EV -23.66%E -3.88%K -4.64%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -11.92%E -2.91%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-06 09:00
TABtouch🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.16%EV -5.62%E -3.93%K -13.06%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.81%EV -23.66%E -3.88%K -4.64%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -11.92%E -2.91%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-06 09:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.16%EV -5.62%E -3.93%K -13.06%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.81%EV -23.66%E -3.88%K -4.64%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -11.92%E -2.91%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-06 08:59
betPARX🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.16%EV -5.62%E -3.93%K -13.06%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.81%EV -23.66%E -3.88%K -4.64%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -11.92%E -2.91%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-06 09:00
BetRivers🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 63.34%EV -6.94%E -4.92%K -16.92%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.88%EV -24.91%E -4.15%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.78%EV -11.92%E -2.91%K -3.85%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-06 08:55
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.16%EV -7.60%E -5.43%K -18.99%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.74%EV -24.91%E -4.15%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -14.07%E -3.52%K -4.69%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-03 14:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 63.49%EV -8.92%E -6.46%K -23.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.60%EV -24.91%E -4.15%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.90%EV -14.07%E -3.52%K -4.69%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-06 08:54
Virgin Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 63.49%EV -8.92%E -6.46%K -23.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.60%EV -24.91%E -4.15%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.90%EV -14.07%E -3.52%K -4.69%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-06 08:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.63%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.06%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.31%0.5%2026-08-07 16:56
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.63%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.06%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.31%0.5%2026-08-07 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.63%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.06%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.31%0.5%2026-08-07 16:55
Matchbook◎1.44I 69.44%NM 68.78%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.01%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.21%1.0%2026-08-07 16:56