Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nordic United FC v IK Brage

Kickoff: 2026-05-23 13:02 UTC

Final: Nordic United FC 1–0 IK Brage

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

45 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nordic United FC (Local)

Prediction 43.51%2.30fair odd
EV -2.11%
Edge -0.939%
Kelly -1.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.64%43.50%43.44%45.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.142.152.2551.28%46.83%46.51%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

IK Brage (Visit)

Prediction 29.68%3.37fair odd
EV -2.65%
Edge -0.806%
Kelly -1.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.24%29.75%29.83%31.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.033.003.2835.71%33.02%33.33%30.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.81%3.73fair odd
EV +0.548%
Edge +0.146%
Kelly +0.199%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.22%26.75%26.73%28.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.443.453.7532.26%29.05%28.99%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nordic United FC (Local): 43.51%; IK Brage (Visit): 29.68%; Draw: 26.81%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.73. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.548%.

Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.09%EV -7.77%E -3.66%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.41%EV -3.54%E -1.09%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.49%EV +0.548%E +0.146%K +0.199%G +0.001%4.6%2026-05-23 12:59
1xBet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.74%EV -6.90%E -3.22%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.69%EV -9.47%E -3.11%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 25.57%EV -1.87%E -0.510%K -0.701%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-23 12:59
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -8.64%E -4.11%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -7.99%E -2.58%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -3.47%E -0.965%K -1.34%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-23 12:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -10.81%E -5.27%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -7.99%E -2.58%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -3.47%E -0.965%K -1.34%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-23 12:59
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.17%EV -2.98%E -1.34%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -10.96%E -3.65%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.49%EV -4.81%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-23 13:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.17%EV -2.98%E -1.34%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -10.96%E -3.65%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.49%EV -4.81%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-23 13:00
betPARX🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.17%EV -2.98%E -1.34%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -10.96%E -3.65%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.49%EV -4.81%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-23 13:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.17%EV -2.98%E -1.34%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -10.96%E -3.65%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.49%EV -4.81%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-23 13:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.73%EV -2.11%E -0.939%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.83%EV -12.44%E -4.22%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -4.81%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 12:59
Pinnacle🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 43.60%EV -4.72%E -2.16%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.11%EV -2.65%E -0.806%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.28%EV -6.16%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-23 12:59
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.97%EV -4.29%E -1.95%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -6.50%E -2.06%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.01%EV -6.16%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 12:59
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.78%EV -5.16%E -2.37%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -9.47%E -3.11%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -6.16%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-23 12:59
NordicBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.78%EV -5.16%E -2.37%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -9.47%E -3.11%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -6.16%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-23 12:59
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -8.64%E -4.11%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -5.02%E -1.57%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -6.16%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-23 12:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -6.46%E -3.01%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -9.47%E -3.11%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -6.16%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-23 12:58
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.12%EV -4.29%E -1.95%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -12.44%E -4.22%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -6.16%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-23 13:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.12%EV -4.29%E -1.95%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -12.44%E -4.22%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -6.16%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-23 13:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.12%EV -4.29%E -1.95%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -12.44%E -4.22%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -6.16%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-23 13:00
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%EV -8.64%E -4.11%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -9.47%E -3.11%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -6.16%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-23 12:59
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -10.81%E -5.27%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -10.96%E -3.65%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -6.16%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-23 12:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -10.81%E -5.27%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -10.96%E -3.65%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -6.16%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-23 12:59
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.13%EV -12.99%E -6.49%K -12.99%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.65%EV -14.52%E -5.04%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.22%EV -6.16%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-23 13:00
LowVig.ag🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.03%EV -5.16%E -2.37%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -6.50%E -2.06%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -7.50%E -2.17%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-23 12:58
BetOnline.ag🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.03%EV -5.16%E -2.37%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -6.50%E -2.06%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -7.50%E -2.17%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-23 13:00
BetUS🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.03%EV -5.16%E -2.37%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -6.50%E -2.06%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -7.50%E -2.17%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-23 12:59
BetAnything🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.03%EV -5.16%E -2.37%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -6.50%E -2.06%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -7.50%E -2.17%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-23 12:59
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%EV -4.29%E -1.95%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.66%EV -13.92%E -4.80%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -7.50%E -2.17%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-23 12:59
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%EV -4.29%E -1.95%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.66%EV -13.92%E -4.80%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -7.50%E -2.17%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-23 12:59
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -4.29%E -1.95%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.81%EV -14.52%E -5.04%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.55%EV -7.50%E -2.17%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-23 12:46
LeoVegas🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.95%EV -5.16%E -2.37%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.54%EV -13.92%E -4.80%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.51%EV -7.50%E -2.17%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-23 13:00
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -6.46%E -3.01%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.02%E -1.57%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.84%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-23 13:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.90%EV -5.59%E -2.58%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.35%EV -13.92%E -4.80%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.74%EV -8.84%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-23 13:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.90%EV -5.59%E -2.58%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.35%EV -13.92%E -4.80%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.74%EV -8.84%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-23 13:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -12.99%E -6.49%K -12.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -5.02%E -1.57%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -8.84%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-23 13:00
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -12.99%E -6.49%K -12.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -7.99%E -2.58%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -8.84%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-23 12:59
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.05%EV -15.16%E -7.78%K -15.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.68%EV -16.89%E -6.03%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.27%EV -8.84%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%16.4%2026-05-23 13:00
PlayUp🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.74%EV -7.77%E -3.66%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.21%EV -10.96%E -3.65%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.05%EV -10.18%E -3.04%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-23 12:59
Marathon Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.11%EV -6.46%E -3.01%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.14%EV -5.61%E -1.77%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.75%EV -10.45%E -3.13%K -4.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-23 12:58
Everygame🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.44%EV -6.46%E -3.01%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.91%EV -9.47%E -3.11%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -11.52%E -3.49%K -5.01%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-23 12:59
SportsBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.44%EV -15.16%E -7.78%K -15.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.89%EV -10.96%E -3.65%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.67%EV -12.86%E -3.96%K -5.71%G +0.000%15.4%2026-05-23 12:59
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -8.64%E -4.11%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -10.96%E -3.65%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -14.20%E -4.44%K -6.45%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-23 12:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -8.64%E -4.11%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -10.96%E -3.65%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -14.20%E -4.44%K -6.45%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-23 12:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -8.64%E -4.11%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -10.96%E -3.65%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -14.20%E -4.44%K -6.45%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-23 12:59
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.64%EV -8.64%E -4.11%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.15%EV -13.92%E -4.80%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.21%EV -16.88%E -5.45%K -8.04%G +0.000%14.4%2026-05-23 13:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.74%EV -12.99%E -6.49%K -12.99%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.68%EV -14.52%E -5.04%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.58%EV -16.88%E -5.45%K -8.04%G +0.000%17.0%2026-05-23 12:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 44.80%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.64%1.5%2026-05-23 13:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 44.80%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.64%1.5%2026-05-23 13:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.20I 45.45%NM 44.80%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.64%1.5%2026-05-23 13:00