The School of Odds
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Lunds BK v Norrby IF

2026-11-21 12:00 UTC — Superettan - Sweden

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lunds BK (Local)

Prediction 36.26%2.76fair odd
EV -5.72%
Edge -2.20%
Kelly -3.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.02%36.26%36.26%36.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.432.522.502.6041.15%39.72%40.00%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Norrby IF (Visit)

Prediction 35.54%2.81fair odd
EV -6.54%
Edge -2.49%
Kelly -4.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.45%35.54%35.54%35.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.482.562.552.6340.32%39.05%39.22%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.20%3.55fair odd
EV -6.93%
Edge -2.10%
Kelly -3.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.20%28.20%28.20%28.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.213.203.3032.26%31.13%31.25%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Lunds BK (Local): 36.26%; Norrby IF (Visit): 35.54%; Draw: 28.20%. For Lunds BK (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.76. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.60, with an expected value of -5.72%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.02%EV -5.72%E -2.20%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.61%EV -6.54%E -2.49%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.38%EV -6.93%E -2.10%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-09 17:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.02%EV -5.72%E -2.20%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.61%EV -6.54%E -2.49%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.38%EV -6.93%E -2.10%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-09 17:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.02%EV -5.72%E -2.20%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.61%EV -6.54%E -2.49%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.38%EV -6.93%E -2.10%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-09 17:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.02%EV -5.72%E -2.20%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.61%EV -6.54%E -2.49%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.38%EV -6.93%E -2.10%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-09 16:59
Unibet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.21%EV -9.35%E -3.74%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -9.38%E -3.68%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.29%EV -9.75%E -3.05%K -4.43%G +0.000%10.5%2026-11-09 17:00
TABtouch🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.21%EV -9.35%E -3.74%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -9.38%E -3.68%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.29%EV -9.75%E -3.05%K -4.43%G +0.000%10.5%2026-11-09 16:59
Unibet (NL)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.21%EV -9.35%E -3.74%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -9.38%E -3.68%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.29%EV -9.75%E -3.05%K -4.43%G +0.000%10.5%2026-11-09 17:00
Grosvenor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.21%EV -9.35%E -3.74%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -9.38%E -3.68%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.29%EV -9.75%E -3.05%K -4.43%G +0.000%10.5%2026-11-09 17:00
betPARX🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.21%EV -9.35%E -3.74%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -9.38%E -3.68%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.29%EV -9.75%E -3.05%K -4.43%G +0.000%10.5%2026-11-09 16:59
BetRivers🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.26%EV -11.16%E -4.56%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.54%EV -11.16%E -4.46%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.20%EV -11.16%E -3.54%K -5.19%G +0.000%12.6%2026-11-09 17:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.18%EV -11.89%E -4.89%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 35.45%EV -11.87%E -4.79%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.36%EV -12.57%E -4.06%K -5.99%G +0.000%13.7%2026-11-09 17:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.18%EV -11.89%E -4.89%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 35.45%EV -11.87%E -4.79%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.36%EV -12.57%E -4.06%K -5.99%G +0.000%13.7%2026-11-09 17:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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